Raków vs Fiorentina prediction and betting tips, March 19, 2026

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: 18 March, 2026, 16:00

Raków Częstochowa host Fiorentina in the second leg of their UEFA Conference League Round of 16 tie. They're looking to overturn a narrow 2-1 defeat from the first meeting in Florence. Raków will once again play their home fixture at the ArcelorMittal Park, which has become a reliable venue for their European matches this season.

Fiorentina arrive in Poland with a slight advantage and improved confidence after recent results. However, this remains a tricky away fixture, as Raków have been one of the most effective home teams in the tournament so far. Below, we break down both teams' recent form and highlight the most valuable betting angles for this second-leg clash.

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Raków will feel they let an opportunity slip away in the first leg. The team took the lead in Florence through Jonatan Brunes, but conceded almost immediately. They eventually lost the match after a late penalty.

"We've learned the lesson from this match. We'll prepare even better; of course, if we had secured a 1-1 draw tonight, everything would be different, but we'll keep working as a team", said the club's manager Łukasz Tomczyk during the post-match conference.

Before that game, Raków had conceded just two goals in six Conference League matches and were among the most solid defensive sides in the tournament. Their home form has also been excellent, with four consecutive wins in the competition, including several clean sheets.

Despite a recent 3-1 defeat to Górnik in the Ekstraklasa, Raków are in a strong domestic position. They sit just four points off the top spot. The team has built its success on discipline and structure, but in this match, they will need to take more risks to overturn the deficit. There are no new injury concerns in the squad, and all key players are expected to be available for this match. The sold out stadium should be a big boost, too.

Fiorentina have a narrow advantage heading into the second leg. The Purples have also improved in recent weeks. A convincing 4-1 win over Cremonese in Serie A helped them move further away from the relegation zone and build some much-needed confidence. That result followed a difficult spell, suggesting the team may finally be finding some attacking rhythm again.

Historically, Fiorentina have been reliable in this competition. They have progressed from 10 of their last 11 Conference League knockout ties and continue to treat the tournament as a priority.

There is positive news on the team front. Marin Pongracic returns after suspension, while Moise Kean is back in the squad and could feature from the bench. However, Manor Solomon and Luca Lezzerini remain unavailable due to muscle injuries. Robin Gosens is still a doubt after picking up an injury right after the match against Cremenose.

• Fiorentina won the first leg 2-1 in Florence.
• Raków have a perfect home record in this season's Conference League.
• The Polish side had conceded just two goals in six matches before the first leg.
• Fiorentina have progressed from 10 of their last 11 Conference League knockout ties.

Raków will have to take more initiative than usual, as they need at least one goal to level the tie. Their strong home form suggests they are capable of putting pressure on Fiorentina, especially with the backing of their fans.

At the same time, this opens the door for Fiorentina. The Italian side have shown improvement in attack and will likely look to exploit the spaces left behind on the counter. We expect both teams to find the net at 1.90.

A slightly riskier option would be Raków to score in the first half at 2.10. The hosts are expected to start aggressively as they chase the deficit, which could lead to early chances.

Another betting angle is over 8 corners at 2.00. Fiorentina recorded eight corners in the first leg alone, and with both teams likely to attack, the total could climb again.

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