English Premier League title and relegation battles: Odds and predictions

By Deniss Novickis | Published: April 9, 2026, 10:00

With three quarters of the English Premier League in 2025/26 already played, we can now try to make predictions on which club is going to lift the trophy, and who will be relegated to the Championship, together with Wolverhampton Wolves and Burnley.

In this article, we’ll talk about the tiebreaker rules of the tournament, look at the betting odds to win the Premier League and to be relegated from the top division, as well as analyse form, match schedule, and squad news of the main contenders before predicting the outcome of both races.

Thank you, Arsenal! 👏

The Gunners' dramatic win in Lisbon mean the Premier League gets an extra UCL spot for 2026/27 season, with Liverpool are currently sitting right in the hot seat 👀 pic.twitter.com/6a27dc3z3b

— GOAL (@goal) April 8, 2026

If the teams finish on level points, they are separated by these criteria:

• Goal difference
• Goals scored
• Head-to-head record
• Away goals scored in head-to-head meetings
• Play-off at a neutral stadium

First of all, we must mention that this is a two-way race between the Gunners and the Citizens. While Manchester United and Aston Villa still have theoretical chances to finish first, they are 15 and 16 points behind Arsenal with seven games to play.

Right now, Arsenal are nine points in front of City, who have a game in hand. They are huge favourites to lift the trophy according to the bookmakers, at 1.12. Manchester City sit at 6.00, but their position is far from despairful.

Current form and head-to-head meetings this season

Arsenal won seven of the last 10 games in all competitions, along with one draw and two losses. However, both of those failures were very painful. Mikel Arteta’s side lost 2-0 to Manchester City in the final of the EFL Cup and were knocked out of the FA Cup by Southampton (2-1) right after that. The sole draw came in an away UEFA Champions League encounter versus Bayer Leverkusen. Arsenal are unbeaten in the last eight EPL games - since losing to Man United in January.

Manchester City earned six victories, two draws and two defeats in their previous ten matches across all competitions. They were beaten twice by Real Madrid in the Champions League Round of 16, scoring just once and letting in five goals in two games. The draws against West Ham and Nottingham Forest, who are fighting to avoid relegation, don't look impressive either. However, Man City are unbeaten in 13 straight domestic stage fixtures since losing the Manchester derby on January 17.

On March 22, the Sky Blues defeated Arsenal at Wembley in the final of the EFL Cup thanks to a brace by Nico O’Reilly in the second half. They had quite an advantage in that game and probably could’ve scored a third goal. The first league meeting between the two sides took place on September 21 in London when Erling Haaland opened the score early on, but Gabriel Martinelli saved Arsenal from defeat in added time.

Match calendar

Obviously, if Arsenal beat Man City on April 19 in the 33rd round, the title race would be over. Even a point would be an ideal result for the Gunners. However, if Man City prevail at home, things would immediately become very interesting.

Looking at the calendar in the table above, it seems that Arsenal have an easier finish to the national league. There are a couple of things to note, though:

• Man City have a game in hand against Crystal Palace at home, but the date is not known yet, as the latter are still playing in the UEFA Conference League. They face Fiorentina in the quarter-finals.
• Man City will also face Southampton in the FA Cup semi-final on April 25 or 26. If successful, they will play against either Chelsea or Leeds in the final on May 16.
• Arsenal won 1-0 away to Sporting in the Champions League quarter-final first leg, with the second leg to be played on April 15. If the Gunners go through, they will meet either Barcelona or Atletico Madrid, with the matches scheduled for April 28/29 and May 5/6.

Injuries and squad news

Arsenal’s sole long-term loss is midfielder Mikel Merino, who is out until the end of the season. Bukayo Saka, Jurrien Timber, Piero Hincapie and Eberechi Eze have all missed the game against Sporting in the middle of the week, but it seems that all of them should return ahead of the game against Man City, if not earlier. Finally, Martin Odergaard, who was sidelined for almost 50 days with a knee injury, limped off the field in Lisbon. The extent of his injury is not known yet.

Joško Gvardiol suffered a tibial fracture in his right leg in January. It is not known when the central defender will return, but Pep Guardiola certainly hopes it will happen before the end of the season. Another two defenders, Ruben Dias and John Stones, are day-to-day and should return soon.

Premier League title prediction

Never give up 🇺🇿🛡️ pic.twitter.com/vZDqF92PT8

— Manchester City (@ManCity) April 6, 2026

Of course, it all points to Arsenal. They have a six-point handicap at the very least, and they have an easier match schedule. Besides, they still look like a more stable team, despite being far from their best in March.

However, I’m going right in the opposite direction. You might remember that around a month ago, people were talking about Arsenal making a quadruple. Well, to be honest, it’s time to talk about whether the capital club will finish this season with a trophy. Already out of both national cups, the Premier League is their best chance, but the Gunners are second to none when it comes to bottling something.

And, obviously, Guardiola is a much more experienced coach who has won a close title race many times before. His team has momentum and were better in both matches against Arsenal this season. At the odds of 6.00, this is well worth a shot, and I’ll go for it. Watch Man City defeat Arsenal on April 19, and the legs of the latter will be shaking.

The last three Premier League teams will be relegated to the Championship, and it’s quite safe to say that we already know two of them. Wolverhampton and Burnley are 13 and 10 points off the safe zone, respectively. They sit at 1.005 to go down, so we’ll focus on the team that will finish in 18th place.

Currently, West Ham are 18th with 29 points. They are one point behind Tottenham, three points behind Nottingham Forest, and four points behind Leeds. All four teams have seven matches to play, so let’s look at the odds first.

Premier League relegation odds

Match calendar

Looking at the table above, I believe that West Ham have the easiest calendar of the four teams, including a home fixture against Leeds in the last round. Leeds likely have the toughest one, and they also play versus Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-finals. Finally, Nottingham are still in the UEFA Europa League, although I suppose that they will be eliminated by Porto next week.

Premier League relegation prediction

Mads wins your Salus Save of the Month for March🧤 pic.twitter.com/JJwxDz9Twp

— West Ham United (@WestHam) April 7, 2026

While West Ham weren’t great in the past 30 days, their 1-1 draw against Manchester City stands out. Nuno Espirito Santo is a very experienced coach who has worked in the Premier League for almost a decade. A fairly comfortable calendar should help the Hammers to survive, and they could leave the relegation zone after the next two rounds.

Nottingham Forest, another team coached by the experienced Portuguese manager Vitor Pereira, are on a three-game unbeaten streak in the Premier League. That stint included a draw with Man City and a 3-0 victory away to Tottenham in the last round. Their calendar is far from perfect, but the recent form suggests that the Tricky Trees will avoid relegation.

Leeds lost just twice in the last ten games across all competitions. Daniel Farke’s side arguably has the best defence of all four candidates to be relegated. Another big advantage is the availability of all players, while reaching the semi-finals of the FA Cup will give the Whites a huge boost of confidence.

Tottenham Hotspur have the most complicated situation. While Roberto De Zerbi has almost two years of experience in the Premier League, he was only appointed on March 31. A week might not be enough to get to know his players better, and Tottenham’s list of absentees is the biggest among all four contenders. It looks like the capital club won’t play in the top division for the first time since 1977/78.

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