Porto vs Malmö prediction and betting tips December 11, 2025

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: 11 December, 2025

FC Porto and Malmö meet in the UEL league phase on 11 December at the Estádio do Dragão. Porto come into this match looking strong and confident, fighting to keep their place inside the top eight. Their form has been impressive in both domestic and European competition so far.

Malmö, on the other hand, have struggled throughout the tournament and remain without a win. They are currently sitting near the bottom of the standings. In this article, we break down both teams' form and share our predictions for the match.

Bookmakers heavily favour Porto at 1.20, with Malmö priced at 11.00. The draw sits at 6.50. Over 2.5 goals at 1.61 also reflects how pundits are confident in a comfortable home win.

This is the first season for the new Porto head coach, Francesco Farioli, and his team is doing great so far. They are currently sitting on top of Liga Portugal, unbeaten after 13 games. Porto have an impressive goal difference, scoring 27 and conceding only 3 in their domestic league. However, the recent 3-1 defeat to Vitoria Guimaraes in the quarter-final of the Portugal Cup showed that they're not bulletproof. Their UEL campaign has also been pretty solid. Porto are 8th in the league phase, picking up 3 wins from 5 matches. Their only loss comes from Nottingham Forrest. It is also the only game in the league phase in which Porto failed to score.

The team average over 2 goals per match across all competitions. Defensively, they concede fewer than 0.50 goals per home game. They've kept multiple clean sheets in recent weeks, including their 3-0 win over Nice in Europe. At the front line, Samu, William Gomes, and Gabriel Veiga are the key players to watch in attack. All three have shown strong scoring instincts across competitions this season.

FC PORTO VLOG 👀🐉 A vitória em Tondela
Vídeo completo 📽 https://t.co/HZYvMBEYYm pic.twitter.com/4peREb8d3C

— FC Porto (@FCPorto) December 9, 2025

Malmö's Europa League run has been difficult from start to finish. They haven't won a single match, earning just one draw from five games. If we look at the stats, the team has scored only two goals and conceded eleven. Their last game was a 3-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest, the same team that beat Porto earlier.

Interestingly, their domestic form in the Allsvenskan has been much better. Malmö have picked up solid wins against teams like GAIS and Norrköping, finishing 6th this season. The team generally looks more comfortable in the Swedish league. However, that just shows the level difference between these two tournaments. Across all competitions, they average around 1.4-1.5 goals per match in Sweden, but in Europe, they have a total of just 0.4 goals per game. Their away form also remains an issue, with Malmö losing both Europa League matches on the road and struggling to create real chances.

Besides the scuffle 10 minutes before kick off with the stewards - the Malmo fans have been singing non stop practically, despite the performance of their team.

Fairplay to their travelling fans 👏🏽 #NFFC | #UEL | #Malmo pic.twitter.com/CC5bikL7Ii

— 🆁 (@CapitalR) November 27, 2025

These teams haven't met before, so this will be a first-time matchup. Based on what we've seen from both sides, our prediction leans towards under 2.5 goals. Porto have been very controlled in recent weeks, with four of their last seven matches finishing under this line. They rarely open up games unnecessarily. Malmö, meanwhile, have struggled badly in front of goal in Europe and are unlikely to trouble Porto's defence, having scored just twice in five Europa League fixtures.

Both teams average a high card count, with Porto at 3.0 per game and Malmö at 2.21. We predict this game to have over 4.5 cards.

If you want to take a risk, a 2-0 home win is our pick. Porto will be in control and should win confidently.

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