FIFA World Cup play-offs: predictions and odds for March 26-31, 2026

By Deniss Novickis | Published: March 24, 2026, 17:00

The last six spots in the 2026 FIFA World Cup are up for grabs at the end of March, bringing all football fans a week of exciting international football. Four of those places will be taken by UEFA representatives, as 16 European teams will battle it out in four different paths.

The other two spots will be given to the winners of the two pathways in the inter-continental play-offs, with all four matches to be played in Mexico at the 2026 World Cup venues.

In this article, we’ll analyse the betting odds, squad news and teams’ chances to qualify for the biggest football tournament in the world before giving our prediction on the eventual winners.

The European play-offs feature twelve teams that finished as runners-up in their qualifying groups, joined by the four highest-ranked UEFA Nations League group winners who did not end up in the top two of their qualifying group.

These sixteen teams were drawn into four separate paths, each containing four teams. In every path, two single-leg semi-finals are played, followed by a one-off final. The winner of each path secures a place at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. As a reminder, the team listed first in each match plays at home.

Path A

Calendar

Semi-final 1: Italy vs Northern Ireland (26 March)
Semi-final 2: Wales vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (26 March)

Final: Winner semi-final 2 vs Winner semi-final 1 (31 March)

Odds to reach the World Cup

After missing the last two World Cups, the four-time champions are agonizingly close to another failure. However, they have far better players than any other team in this path, and the home-field advantage should help them make it through to the final at the very least. The Azurri shouldn’t have any problems with motivation, and Federico Chiesa’s withdrawal from the squad is not that big of a blow.

Italy have failed to secure automatic qualification for the World Cup for the third time in a row 🇮🇹😬

They now head into the play-offs once again - the same route that cost them a place at the last two World Cups 👀 pic.twitter.com/cgSPktJ57y

— OneFootball (@OneFootball) November 16, 2025

Northern Ireland were big underdogs as soon as the play-offs draw was made, and now the situation has got even worse. Manager Michael O’Neill is left without two key defenders, as both Dan Ballard and Conor Bradley are injured. It seems that only a miracle will save the Irish on Thursday.

Wales host the Bosnians in the other semi-final, and they have earned only two draws in the previous four head-to-head meetings. Moreover, the hosts are short of key midfielder Aaron Ramsey, striker Kieffer Moore, as well as defenders Connor Roberts, Ben Davies, and Chris Mepham. “Edin Džeko is still playing at a good level, and he’s definitely a dangerous player. The idea would be to keep Bosnia away from our box because that’s when he comes into his own”, coach Craig Bellamy said.

The 40-year-old talismanic forward was Bosnia’s top scorer in the qualifiers with five goals. Only Robert Lewandowski and Cristiano Ronaldo have netted more goals in UEFA World Cup qualifying history, with 34 each, compared to Džeko’s 30 in 44 appearances. Supported by midfielders Benjamin Tahirovic and Armin Gigovic, the veteran striker will try to reach his second World Cup after the 2014 tournament.

The winner will play in Group B along with Canada, Qatar, and Switzerland. We believe that it will be Wales against Italy in the final. As much as the Welsh team has grown up in recent years, and even with the support of 73,000+ fans, we just can’t see anyone other than Italy going through to the World Cup here.

Path B

Calendar

Semi-final 3: Ukraine vs Sweden (26 March)
Semi-final 4: Poland vs Albania (26 March)

Final: Winner semi-final 3 vs Winner semi-final 4 (31 March)

Odds to reach the World Cup

While Ukraine have the home field advantage in both games, they will be playing in Valencia for obvious reasons. Ukraine hold the upper hand against Sweden, having won three of the five previous games with one draw and one defeat. The biggest of those matches happened in the Round of 16 at EURO 2020, when Artem Dovbyk scored the winner in extra time. Serhiy Rebrov’s biggest problem is the right-back spot - Yuhim Konoplya is suspended, and Olexandr Zinchenko, who was supposed to replace him, is out for the season with a knee injury.

New Sweden manager Graham Potter will be without Dejan Kulusevski and Alexander Isak. However, with Viktor Gyökeres leading the line, they should still carry a serious attacking threat. The latter scored 16 goals across all competitions this season for Arsenal, but that prolific form may still not be good enough. The Swedes had an awful qualifying campaign, earning two draws and losing the other four matches.

🗣️ Robert Lewandowski: “For many years, I expected my teammates at the Poland National Team to play at the level I was used to at FC Bayern and Dortmund.

That was my mistake, and I only understood it later." pic.twitter.com/CUOCkpHwXE

— PurelyFootball ℗ (@PurelyFootball) December 29, 2025

The biggest news from the Poland camp is the debut call-up for the 17-year-old winger Oskar Pietuszewski, who is having a great season with Porto. Poland are unbeaten in the last six matches, winning four, under Jan Urban, who stood at the helm of the national team last August. The 63-year-old immediately returned the captain's armband to Robert Lewandowski, and now the team is eager to qualify for the third World Cup in a row.

Albania have never qualified for the World Cup, but participated in two out of the last three European Championships. They had an amazing qualifying campaign, finishing second in Group K behind England and leaving Serbia third. This team has great defence and is very dangerous on the counter - a scenario we’ll likely see in Warsaw. Moreover, they have beaten Poland in the last encounter - a EURO qualifier in September 2023.

The winner will play in Group F together with the Netherlands, Japan, and Tunisia. We predict Ukraine to beat Sweden, who have too many injured players and clearly lack team chemistry. As for the other semi-final, this will be our first underdog pick - Albania will show resilient defence and win by a single goal. However, they will have to wait for their debut World Cup, as Ukraine will qualify for the first time since 2006, when they reached the quarter-finals.

Path C

Calendar

Semi-final 5: Türkiye vs Romania (26 March)
Semi-final 6: Slovakia vs Kosovo (26 March)

Final: Winner semi-final 6 vs Winner semi-final 5 (31 March)

Odds to reach the World Cup

Türkiye had a decent qualifying campaign, even earning a 2-2 draw against Spain, the top favourites to win the World Cup. Vincenzo Montella’s team averaged almost three goals per game in those six qualifiers, with the youngsters Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız leading the attack. Centre-back Çağlar Söyüncü and defensive midfielder Okay Yokuşlu are missing, though, and that makes the Turkish mission to reach the World Cup for the first time since 2002, when they claimed bronze, a bit harder.

Still can’t believe this was Arda Guler first ever goal for Turkey

pic.twitter.com/YBOiOCeyI0 https://t.co/wYEo1mXkW8

— Janty (@CFC_Janty) March 23, 2026

Mircea Lucescu is in the spotlight ahead of Romania’s visit to Istanbul. The 80-year-old Romanian coach won the UEFA Super Cup with Galatasaray, while also working with Türkiye from 2017 to 2019. He knows the opposition inside out, which might give Romania an edge. This team hasn’t played at the World Cups for even longer, since 1998, and the task of winning at the Beşiktaş Stadium looks immense.

The biggest concern for Slovakia ahead of the clash with Kosovo is the captain and key central defender Milan Škriniar. He is struggling with a groin injury, and there is still a major doubt about him taking the pitch. Slovakia’s coach Francesco Calzona publicly thanked Škriniar, saying: "He does everything in the way that really great players usually do. You could say he is risking part of his career just to be ready to help Slovakia”.

Kosovo are the least experienced team in this quartet, yet they were very quick to put their country on the football map. Franco Foda’s team finished just three points behind Switzerland in their qualifying group, way ahead of Slovenia and Sweden. Captain Amir Rrahmani and midfield leader Leon Avdullahu won’t help Kosovo this time. However, the German coach is confident he will find a solution: “We have always shown that the players who have won the opportunity have deserved it and justified the trust”.

The winner will play in Group D along with the USA, Paraguay, and Australia. This one seems the most predictable out of the four European paths. Türkiye will be too strong for Romania, and the winner of the other semi-final, which should be Kosovo. In case of the final between Kosovo and Türkiye, make sure to analyse the markets for over on total cards and a possible red card.

Path D

Calendar

Semi-final 7: Denmark vs North Macedonia (26 March)
Semi-final 8: Czechia vs Republic of Ireland (26 March)

Final: Winner semi-final 8 vs Winner semi-final 7 (31 March)

Odds to reach the World Cup

Denmark somewhat slowed down after reaching the semi-finals at EURO 2020. Having collected a single point in two qualifiers against Scotland, they have to take part in the play-offs now. The Scandinavian team will have to play without iconic goalkeeper Kacper Schmeichel, who’ll likely be replaced by West Ham’s Mads Hermansen. Striker Kasper Hogh is in the squad after impressing with Bodo/Glimt, who have recently reached the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League.

Northern Macedonia’s coach, Goce Sedloski, who was appointed in January 2026, has called 26 players to the squad. Five of them have 70+ caps for the national team: goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski, defenders Ezgjan Alioski and Visar Musliu, midfielder and captain Enis Bardhi, and striker Aleksandar Trajkovski. The latter is the best goalscorer for his country with 24 goals.

Czechia, who have a chance to play both matches at home, were not that convincing in the qualifying campaign. They have suffered a 5-1 defeat against Croatia and also lost 2-1 in the Faroe Islands. The newly appointed coach, Miroslav Koubek, has worked with the team for less than 6 months, which might be a problem. After failing to qualify for four consecutive World Cups, the two-time runners-up have every reason to push hard for a place at the expanded 2026 tournament.

Up against them are the Republic of Ireland, eager to end a 24-year wait to play at the World Cup. Their coach, Heimir Hallgrímsson, has recently signed a new contract until the end of EURO 2028, so the future looks bright for the Irish. Troy Parrott, Chiedozie Ogbene and Finn Azaz are all set to play in Prague. Sharp, fast transitions combined with a solid defensive structure are essential to securing a place at the World Cup for the Boys in Green.

The winner will play in Group D together with Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea. We are pretty sure of Denmark going through to the final, while the second semi-final looks very even. Still, we’ll go with Czechia defeating both the Republic of Ireland and Denmark to qualify for the biggest tournament of them all.

Unlike the UEFA play-offs, the inter-continental play-offs feature just six teams and are split into two pathways. Two of the slots are allocated to CONCACAF, while the AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL, and OFC each receive one. All matches in this stage will take place in Mexico at the World Cup venues.

Pathway 1 (matches to be played in Zapopan)

Calendar

Match 1: New Caledonia vs Jamaica (26 March)
Final: DR Congo vs Winner match 1 (31 March)

The team to reach the World Cup from Pathway 1

Unfortunately, there are no odds on teams to reach the World Cup via the inter-continental play-offs at the time of writing this article. Still, it’s almost guaranteed that Jamaica will defeat New Caledonia. However, the Reggae Boyz will have their hands full in the match against DR Congo, a much stronger team with plenty of players competing in the top European leagues. Anything less than DR Congo winning by 2-3 goals will be a major surprise here. The winner will play in Group K against Portugal, Uzbekistan, and Colombia. It will be DR Congo.

Pathway 2 (matches to be played in Guadalupe)

Calendar

Match 2: Bolivia vs Suriname (26 March)
Final: Iraq vs Winner match 2 (31 March)

The team to reach the World Cup from Pathway 2

The bookmakers believe that the second semi-final between Bolivia and Suriname is a much more even affair. We’ll opt for the underdog here, as Suriname are coached by the 71-year-old Henk ten Cate, who has almost 40 years of managerial experience. Yet Iraq, playing under Graham Arnold, will be too good for them. The winner will play in Group I along with France, Senegal, and Norway. We tip the Lions of Mesopotamia to earn this spot despite the situation in the Middle East.

We post daily predictions and betting tips in our Telegram channel. Join us for free to stay informed and never miss any part of the action!