F1 Japanese GP 2026 predictions and betting preview

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: 26 March, 2026, 14:30

Formula 1 heads to the iconic Suzuka Circuit for the Japanese Grand Prix, the third round of the 2026 season. After the opening two races, Mercedes have emerged as the team to beat under the new regulations. Both George Russell and Kimi Antonelli have finished in the top-2 in the opening GPs.

Max Verstappen has dominated the Suzuka Circuit in recent years, winning here four times in a row. The big question now is whether he can extend that streak with Red Bull, or if Mercedes are ready to take control?

In this article, we break down the key features of the circuit, analyse the odds, and share our predictions for how the race could unfold.

After the opening rounds of the season, Formula 1 has already made a small but important adjustment to the new 2026 regulations. Following feedback from teams and drivers, the FIA reduced the battery recharge limit for qualifying from 9.0MJ to 8.0MJ. The reason is to reduce excessive energy saving and allow drivers to push more naturally on a lap.

So far, one of the main talking points has been energy management, with drivers often forced to lift and coast rather than attack at full pace. This change should slightly improve the flow of qualifying laps, although managing energy will still be crucial.

As George Russell explained: "You can recover less from your battery, so it means you need to be slightly more wise with how you spend it. Hopefully, what it means is we'll be going slightly slower in the middle of the straight, but slightly faster at the end of the straight."

Suzuka is expected to feel much closer to Melbourne in this regard. The circuit has very few heavy breaking zones, which makes it harder to recharge the battery. Teams will once again face a strong energy-saving challenge throughout the lap.

McLaren

The Chinese Grand Prix turned into a disaster for McLaren, as both Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris were forced to retire due to electrical issues with their Mercedes power units. It was the second race Piastri failed to start this season, while Norris' only points so far came from a fifth-place finish in Melbourne. However, Suzuka has been a strong venue for McLaren in the past. Both drivers reached the podium here last year. If reliability issues are resolved, perhaps they could challenge Ferrari and Mercedes.

Red Bull/Ford

Red Bull had a difficult outing in China, with Max Verstappen retiring due to a sudden loss of power. His teammate, Isack Hadjar, managed to finish eighth, picking up four points for the team. Despite the setback, Verstappen remains a serious contender heading into Suzuka, where he has won four years in a row. The Dutchman also spent time away from F1 after China, competing in GT3 racing, which could help him return refreshed.

Ferrari

Ferrari are the main challengers to Mercedes at this stage of the season, finishing just behind them in both races. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton have shown strong pace, keeping the pressure on the leaders. Suzuka could be an important track for Ferrari, especially for Hamilton, who has won here five times, most recently in 2018. If anything goes wrong for Mercedes, Ferrari are well positioned to step in and take advantage.

Mercedes

Mercedes are flying high at the moment. George Russell leads the F1 standings with 51 points, while Kimi Antonelli sits second on 47. Antonelli is full of confidence after his victory in China, and if the car holds up, a second P1 finish is definitely on the table. The Silver Arrows currently have one of the strongest overall packages, with a powerful engine and a well-balanced chassis. Russell is also performing at a very high level, but momentum is more on Antonelli's side.

Qualifying and Pole Position

It's hard to look beyond Mercedes when it comes to qualifying this weekend. The Silver Arrows have the fastest car over one lap so far this season. Once again, they head into Suzuka as clear favourites for pole position.

Russell is expected to be the main contender, given his consistency and strong qualifying performances. However, we believe that Antonelli could take another step forward and deliver the fastest lap.

KIMI. ANTONELLI. 🙌

You did it! 👏#F1 #ChineseGP pic.twitter.com/1MGzTVRQxB

— Formula 1 (@F1) March 15, 2026

Podium Prediction

The latest tweaks to the regulations could influence how the race unfolds, especially when it comes to energy management and overall pace. However, if things stay relatively straightforward, it's difficult to ignore Mercedes' consistency and reliability.

Antonelli might just go back-to-back after his win in China. The young Italian continues to improve with every race. His results are impressive considering this is only his second season in Formula 1. He already secured three podiums in his rookie year and clearly has huge potential. Antonelli also set the fastest lap at Suzuka last year, showing he is comfortable on this track.

This could actually be the race where Mercedes take P1, while Ferrari lock out the remaining podium places. It's a slightly risky call, but the Scuderia have shown enough pace to stay close to the front. Suzuka is also one of Charles Leclerc's most consistent tracks. If that trend continues, he could be right in the mix for the podium, potentially even finishing ahead of his teammate, Hamilton.

Our predicted podium for the Chinese Grand Prix:

1. Kimi Antonelli
2. George Russell
3. Charles Leclerc

Dark Horses

Looking beyond the top teams, Alpine have made a solid start to the season. Pierre Gasly picked up a point in Melbourne and followed it up with an impressive sixth-place finish in China. While Suzuka hasn't been his strongest track historically, with only a couple of points finishes here, the Alpine's current package looks well-suited to the circuit's demands.

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