UEFA Champions League knockout phase play-offs: Second legs as a reflection of true strength

By Serge Gorelikov | Published: February 24, 2026, 12:00 PM

The second legs of the UEFA Champions League knockout phase play-offs are not just a continuation of the tie. They are a concentration of information. The first matches have already given us a clear signal: what condition the teams are in, who is decisive in key moments, who is struggling physically, and who only switches on when the Champions League anthem plays.

It’s important to recognize a key contrast: a team’s identity in its domestic league is identical to that in European competition - same players, playing model, and coaching staff. However, while the motivation levels may fluctuate significantly, core systemic strengths and weaknesses remain unchanged. Therefore, the first leg isn’t defined by emotions - it’s a database that reveals these persistent traits.

Galatasaray come back from 2-1 down to score FOUR 😳#UCL pic.twitter.com/lw72WINfXN

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) February 20, 2026

Atletico always play from a position of strength at home. If the first meeting showed control and chances created, the Spaniards are likely to apply even more pressure in the second leg. Brugge are a disciplined side, but when playing as the underdog, the Belgians often leave space behind the defensive line.

The first match showed that Brugge can create chances even under pressure. Therefore, Brugge scoring over 1 goal at 2.15 looks very interesting. Second legs often open up in the second half, especially if the favourite needs to score.

Inter are structured and well-organised. But if the Norwegians displayed pace and aggression in transitions in the first leg, that’s a warning sign for the Milan side’s defence. Bodø/Glimt play without fear and capitalise on every opportunity.

If Inter concede chances in Serie A against lower-table teams, those same transition issues can appear in the Champions League. In this context, backing the away team to score over 1 goal at 2.60 is not a gamble - it’s pure logic.

The most open tie of the round. Atalanta traditionally play boldly, while Dortmund are quick and direct. The first match featured high intensity and plenty of shots, and the return leg is unlikely to turn into a slow contest.

In matchups like this, the away team scoring over 1 goal market (1.95) is particularly valuable. Even if the favourite controls possession, the German side is capable of scoring more than once on the counterattack.

Julian Ryerson has 14 assists this season. That is more than every player in:

The Premier League 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
La Liga 🇪🇸
Ligue 1 🇫🇷

👍 pic.twitter.com/LW3IAzuzJ6

— Borussia Dortmund (@BlackYellow) February 18, 2026

Juventus are pragmatic. If the Turkish side showed aggression and pressing in the first leg, they would not travel to Italy just to make up the numbers. Galatasaray are an emotional team that often fight until the final minute.

The psychological factor is key here: if Juve take the lead, the visitors will be forced to open up. And open space creates scoring opportunities. Once again, the away team to score over 1 goal at 2.35 is a bet to make.

The second leg is not guesswork. It’s an adjustment based on the first wave of information. We have already seen:

• the physical condition of the teams
• squad depth
• level of concentration
• finishing quality

Furthermore, if the away side created chances in the first match, the probability of them scoring in the second leg increases - especially if they need to chase the result.

Placing a bet on the away team to score at least one goal is a way to capitalise on a common scenario in European competitions: the favourite presses, while the underdog absorbs pressure and seizes opportunities to score.

In summary, there is no need to separate the domestic league from the Champions League. The team remains the same, while the intensity changes. Therefore, proper analysis of the first leg gives us an edge in the second.

Serge Gorelikov is a columnist for MightyTips who shares insights on how the betting world operates. To stay up to date with Serge's latest predictions and betting tips, become a member of our Telegram channel.