The influence of personal sympathy and antipathy in sports betting

Objectivity in analysis is a crucial factor when it comes to sports betting. However, human psychology is such that it's virtually impossible to eliminate emotions. Personal likes and dislikes toward certain teams, players, or even coaches can significantly distort perception and lead to poor decisions.

When placing a bet, a person often believes they are guided by logic and facts. In reality, emotions frequently dominate. For example, a Barcelona fan may overestimate their team's chances even during a slump, while a dislike for Real Madrid might cause them to underestimate the true potential of this team. Such subjectivity creates so-called emotional bias, where a bettor chooses not the most likely outcome, but the one they want to see.

Psychologists call this phenomenon a "cognitive bias" when your emotions interfere with rational evaluation. In betting, this manifests in several ways. The first is the favorite effect: a bettor tends to overrate a strong team if they like it. The second is the antipathy effect: the unwillingness to acknowledge the strength or potential of a team or player that evokes negative feelings. In both cases, decisions become less accurate, which leads to a decrease in profit.

Let's look at a practical example. Say, you dislike Juventus because of their defensive style of play, just as I do. When analysing a match against weaker opponents, you might ignore clear arguments in favor of Juventus winning - such as possession, solid defensive metrics, or squad advantage. Your aversion drives you to find excuses to bet against Juventus. As a result, the bet is based not on data but on emotions, and that will lead to long-term losses in the end. That's why I don't bet on Juve.

To reduce the influence of subjectivity, professional bettors use a structured analytical approach. It includes examining stats, form, motivation, playing style, and other objective aspects. If all the data points one way but your gut says otherwise - that's a signal that emotion has interfered with analysis. One useful technique is keeping a betting journal. By recording the reasons for each bet and the feelings you had at the time, you can later identify which decisions were driven by sympathy and which ones by logic

Another effective method is blind analysis. Some analysts evaluate matches without knowing the names of the teams - only their statistics and metrics. When predictions are made without associations to favourite or disliked clubs, the likelihood of emotional error drops significantly.

It's important to understand that sympathy isn't always harmful. It can help you study your "own" team more deeply, knowing its strengths and weaknesses better. But the line between knowledge and fanaticism is very thin. Once emotions begin to dictate decisions, it's no longer analysis - that is an emotionally driven play.

Sports betting requires cool-headedness and discipline. Personal sympathies and antipathies are inevitable, but their influence can be minimised through self-awareness and strict analytics. The winner is not the one who loves or hates a team, but the one who can evaluate it objectively.

Serge Gorelikov is a professional sports bettor who writes a weekly column for MightyTips. In his articles, he explores how the betting world really works, covering everything from the basics to advanced strategies - offering valuable insights even for experienced bettors. To follow Serge's latest picks, visit our official Telegram channel.