Toulouse vs Nantes prediction 27.09.2025 | Ligue 1

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Full time: 2 - 2

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  • Competition: Ligue 1
  • Date: Saturday, 27th September, 2025
  • Kickoff: 18:00 UK / 19:00 CET
  • Venue: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

On Saturday evening, two out-of-form teams, Toulouse and Nantes, will face off in the sixth round of Ligue 1 at Stadium de Toulouse in Toulouse. The hosts are coming to this match after losing three in a row, while Nantes are trying to secure their first points in their third road Ligue 1 game.

vs Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Nantes

    0 : 0

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  2. Toulouse

    0 : 0

    Nantes

    Ligue 1

  3. Toulouse

    1 : 2

    Nantes

    Ligue 1

  4. Nantes

    1 : 2

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  5. Toulouse

    0 : 0

    Nantes

    Ligue 1

  6. Nantes

    1 : 5

    Toulouse

    Coupe de France

In the previous season, both h2h games ended as goalless draws. Despite games finishing without winners, both teams dominated their home games. Looking further back, in the past ten h2h games, Toulouse won three times, while Nantes secured four victories. 

When it comes to the number of goals, four out of the last ten ended with fewer than three goals, while both teams scored on six occasions. 

Toulouse team overview

Since returning to Ligue 1 in the 2022/23 season, Toulouse have been a mid-table team, closer to relegation spots than European ones. Still, they had a massive success in 2023 as they managed to win the Cup. Interestingly, they won against Nantes in the finals. Their primary goal for this season remains the same - not to get too involved in the relegation battle. After a great start this season and two wins in the first two games, Toulouse lost three in a row and are sitting in 9th place. However, two of those losses were against PSG and Lille, and we can give them a pass on those ones.

After a 1:0 loss against Auxerre, coach Carles Martinez spoke to the media. He said they lacked aggressiveness and precision in the final third. The coach admitted that the team was not competitive enough and noted that the game could have gone differently if they had converted the penalty in the third minute. 

Last matches of

  1. Auxerre

    1 : 0

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  2. Lille

    2 : 1

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

  3. Toulouse

    3 : 6

    PSG

    Ligue 1

  4. Toulouse

    2 : 0

    Brest

    Ligue 1

  5. OGC Nice

    0 : 1

    Toulouse

    Ligue 1

lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Guillaume Restes

Defenders

  • 2

    Rasmus Nicolaisen

  • 4

    Charlie Cresswell

  • 3

    Mark McKenzie

Midfielders

  • 15

    Aron Dønnum

  • 23

    Cristian Cásseres Jr.

  • 17

    Abu Francis

  • 24

    Dayann Mathalie

Forwards

  • 31

    Noah Edjouma

  • 9

    Frank Magri

  • 10

    Yann Gbnoho

Nantes team overview

Nantes are playing their 13th consecutive season in Ligue 1. In the recent three years, they were close to being relegated, winning only between 33 and 36 points. However, they survived somehow. This season, the popular Canaries haven't started the season well once again, and are looking like one of the leading relegation candidates. After five rounds, they are sitting in 16th place with four points! 

In the previous game against Rennes, midfielder Francis Coquelin suffered an injury and had to leave the field after only 11 minutes on the field. According to the French media reports, the midfielder suffered a hamstring injury and will probably miss the upcoming games. 

Last matches of

  1. Nantes

    2 : 2

    Rennes

    Ligue 1

  2. OGC Nice

    1 : 0

    Nantes

    Ligue 1

  3. Nantes

    1 : 0

    Auxerre

    Ligue 1

  4. Strasbourg

    1 : 0

    Nantes

    Ligue 1

  5. Angers

    1 : 0

    Nantes

    Club Friendlies 3

lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Anthony Lopes

Defenders

  • 98

    Kelvin Amian

  • 6

    Chidozie Awaziem

  • 78

    Tylel Tati

  • 3

    Nicolas Cozza

Midfielders

  • 15

    Mayckel Lahdo

  • 80

    Junior Mwanga

  • 8

    Johann Lepenant

  • 66

    Louis Leroux

Forwards

  • 10

    Matthis Abline

  • 31

    Mostafa Mohamed

Prediction

Toulouse have been in terrible form, having lost three in a row. From time to time, they have some good offensive performances, but we do not trust them. They have scored one or zero goals in three out of five games (60%) and have the 14th-lowest xG in Ligue 1.

With only three goals scored, Nantes are tied for the worst offense in the league. Also, away from home, they were under 2.5 goals in both games as they lost 1:0 vs Nice and Strasbourg. 

Additionally, both h2h games last season ended with goalless draws. Considering the previous h2h games and all the above, an under 2.5 goals seems like the best possible bet for this Ligue 1 tie. 

3 Reasons why we should see fewer than three goals

  1. Toulouse scored one or zero goals in three out of five games - 60%
  2. Nantes scored just three goals in five Ligue 1 games
  3. Both h2h games last season ended as goalless draws

Main prediction -

Under 2.5 goals

Updated

clock
winrate

56% winrate

wins

3 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

Best Odds:

Megapari

1.8

Bet here

vs standings in Ligue 1

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 Paris Saint Germain 6 5 0 1 12 - 4 +8 15
2 Olympique Lyonnais 6 5 0 1 8 - 3 +5 15
3 Olympique Marseille 6 4 0 2 12 - 5 +7 12
4 Monaco 6 4 0 2 14 - 10 +4 12
5 Strasbourg 6 4 0 2 9 - 7 +2 12
6 LOSC Lille 6 3 1 2 13 - 9 +4 10
7 Lens 5 3 0 2 8 - 5 +3 9
8 Rennes 5 2 2 1 7 - 8 -1 8
9 Brest 6 2 1 3 11 - 11 0 7
10 Toulouse 6 2 1 3 9 - 11 -2 7
11 Paris 6 2 1 3 10 - 13 -3 7
12 Nice 6 2 1 3 7 - 10 -3 7
13 Lorient 6 2 1 3 9 - 14 -5 7
14 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 4 - 8 -4 6
15 Le Havre 6 1 2 3 6 - 8 -2 5
16 Nantes 6 1 2 3 5 - 7 -2 5
17 Angers SCO 6 1 2 3 3 - 6 -3 5
18 Metz 6 0 2 4 5 - 13 -8 2

Toulouse vs Nantes – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Toulouse this season?

The average xG for Toulouse in the Ligue 1 this season is 1.19.

? How much is the average xG for Nantes this season?

The average xG for Nantes in the Ligue 1 this season is 0.98.