Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction 04.10.2025 | La Liga

Kick off:

Date:

1

1.50

X

5.30

2

6.22

  • Competition: La Liga
  • Date: Saturday, 4th October, 2025
  • Kickoff: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CEST
  • Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

On Saturday evening, Real Madrid and Villarreal will face off against each other in the eighth round of Spanish La Liga at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid. Los Blancos enter the clash after a Champions League victory but are still reeling from a heavy 5:2 league defeat to city rivals Atletico. Villarreal, meanwhile, arrives in good form after a Champions League draw against Juventus and will look to extend their La Liga winning streak to four matches.

vs Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Villarreal

    1 : 2

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  2. Real Madrid

    2 : 0

    Villarreal

    La Liga

  3. Villarreal

    4 : 4

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  4. Real Madrid

    4 : 1

    Villarreal

    La Liga

  5. Real Madrid

    2 : 3

    Villarreal

    La Liga

  6. Villarreal

    2 : 3

    Real Madrid

    Copa Del Rey

Last season, Real Madrid won both h2h games - 2:0 at home and 2:1 away from home. However, both games have been pretty close, and Villarreal undoubtedly could have secured draws. Looking further back, Real Madrid won five times, while Villarreal won twice. 

Regarding the number of goals, seven out of ten h2h games ended with three or more goals, while both teams scored in the same number of games.

Real Madrid team overview

Last season was a disappointing one for Real Madrid, as they finished without a single trophy. Los Blancos ended as runners-up in both La Liga and the Copa del Rey, falling short to arch-rivals Barcelona on both occasions. This year, under the new head coach, Xabi Alonso, Los Blancos have had an excellent start, winning eight out of nine games across the competitions. To be fair, their only loss (against Atletico Madrid 5:2) was a disaster, but that is only one game. Right now, they are in 2nd place in La Liga with 18 points, just one point behind Barcelona and two points above their next opponent, Villarreal. 

In recent days, coach Xabi Alonso spoke about the loss to Atletico Madrid in the La Liga game before the previous one. He said it was a bad game from his side, but acknowledged it is a positive setback for the future. "We've been too weak in duels and when playing long balls, and we haven't found solutions with the ball. It was a poor performance overall and a deserved defeat," the coach added. After the loss, the team bounced back with a massive 5:0 vs Kairat Almaty in the Champions League.

Last matches of

  1. Kairat Almaty

    0 : 5

    Real Madrid

    Champions League

  2. Atletico Madrid

    5 : 2

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  3. Levante

    1 : 4

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  4. Real Madrid

    2 : 0

    Espanyol

    La Liga

  5. Real Madrid

    2 : 1

    Marseille

    Champions League

lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Thibaut Courtois

Defenders

  • 17

    Raúl Asencio

  • 24

    Dean Huijsen

  • 4

    David Alaba

  • 18

    Álvaro Carreras

Midfielders

  • 14

    Aurélien Tchouaméni

  • 8

    Federico Valverde

  • 5

    Jude Bellingham

Forwards

  • 30

    Franco Mastantuono

  • 10

    Kylian Mbappé

  • 7

    Vinicius Junior

Villarreal team overview

Last year, Villarreal missed out on Europe after four consecutive years. However, the popular Yellow Submarine did very well in La Liga last year, finishing fifth (on level with fourth-placed Athletic Bilbao). Still, they managed to secure the Champions League from fifth place regardless. While their start in the CL wasn't great, winning one point in the first two games, they were excellent in La Liga, already winning 16 points in the first seven rounds. Interestingly, both Real Madrid and Villarreal suffered defeats only from Atletico Madrid, but are better placed than them. 

After a 2:2 draw with Juventus in the previous game, coach Marcelino spoke to the media. He was pretty satisfied with the team's performances, especially in the first half, while he had some criticism about the second half. Still, the coach said they proved they could compete with anyone, but maybe they lacked some experience or fortune to win against Juventus.

Last matches of

  1. Villarreal

    2 : 2

    Juventus

    Champions League

  2. Villarreal

    1 : 0

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  3. Sevilla

    1 : 2

    Villarreal

    La Liga

  4. Villarreal

    2 : 1

    Osasuna

    La Liga

  5. Tottenham Hotspur

    1 : 0

    Villarreal

    Champions League

lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 25

    Arnau Tenas

Defenders

  • 15

    Santiago Mourino

  • 4

    Rafa Marin

  • 12

    Renato Veiga

  • 24

    Alfonso Pedraza

Midfielders

  • 18

    Pape Gueye

  • 10

    Dani Parejo

  • 14

    Santi Comesaña

Forwards

  • 19

    Nicolas Pépé

  • 9

    Georges Mikautadze

  • 17

    Tajon Buchanan

Prediction

Both teams have been pretty good this season, but we still believe Real Madrid showed a lot more. Los Blancos won eight out of nine games, while covering the -1.5 AH spread on four occasions. More impressively, they have a 100% win rate at home thus far (in four matches). 

Villarreal also did well this year, but away from home, they weren't as great. In four road matches, they have a 1-1-2 w/d/l record while facing objectively much weaker teams than Real Madrid.

In the last two h2h games at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Los Blancos won and covered the -1.5 AH spread. Considering the previous h2h games and all the above, we expect the hosts to secure a fairly comfortable win over Villarreal. 

4 Reasons why Real Madrid should win and cover the -1 AH spread

  1. Real Madrid won eight out of nine games this season
  2. Real Madrid won all four home games
  3. Villarreal lost two out of four road games this season
  4. Real Madrid won the previous two h2h games

Main prediction -

AH1 (-1)

Updated

clock
winrate

57% winrate

wins

6 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

Best Odds:

Megapari

1.68

Bet here

vs standings in La Liga

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 FC Barcelona 7 6 1 0 21 - 5 +16 19
2 Real Madrid 7 6 0 1 16 - 8 +8 18
3 Villarreal 7 5 1 1 13 - 5 +8 16
4 Elche 7 3 4 0 10 - 6 +4 13
5 Atlético Madrid 7 3 3 1 14 - 9 +5 12
6 Real Betis 7 3 3 1 11 - 7 +4 12
7 Espanyol 7 3 3 1 10 - 9 +1 12
8 Getafe 7 3 2 2 8 - 9 -1 11
9 Sevilla 7 3 1 3 11 - 10 +1 10
10 Athletic Club 7 3 1 3 7 - 8 -1 10
11 Deportivo Alavés 7 2 2 3 6 - 7 -1 8
12 Valencia 7 2 2 3 9 - 12 -3 8
13 Osasuna 7 2 1 4 5 - 7 -2 7
14 Real Oviedo 7 2 0 5 4 - 12 -8 6
15 Levante 7 1 2 4 11 - 14 -3 5
16 Rayo Vallecano 7 1 2 4 7 - 10 -3 5
17 Celta de Vigo 7 0 5 2 6 - 9 -3 5
18 Real Sociedad 7 1 2 4 7 - 11 -4 5
19 Mallorca 7 1 2 4 6 - 11 -5 5
20 Girona 7 0 3 4 3 - 16 -13 3

Real Madrid vs Villarreal – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Real Madrid this season?

The average xG for Real Madrid in La Liga this season is 2.05.

? How much is the average xG for Villarreal this season?

The average xG for Villarreal in La Liga this season is 1.8.