Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction 27.09.2025 | La Liga

After winning the La Liga trophy in the 2020/21 season, Atletico Madrid had four years in a row in which they failed to break into the top teams in the competition. This season will hardly be different as Diego Simeone's team collected only nine points in the first six league matches and is already nine points behind the league leader, Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid are not playing well, but on Wednesday, they recorded their second victory of the season, 3-2 at home against Rayo Vallecano. That was another match where Atletico Madrid had too many problems, but they eventually took all three points. 

Under Diego Simeone, Atletico Madrid became a well-known, defensive, strong, and aggressive team. However, this season, they allowed goals in six of seven matches in all competitions. We should expect Atletico Madrid to improve that segment as the season goes on. 

Thiago Almada, Johnny Cardoso, and Jose Maria Gimenez are injured and will not play in Saturday's derby. 

Last season, Real Madrid finished four points behind champions Barcelona, but this year they look determined to reclaim the La Liga crown. Their start has been flawless, winning all seven matches across all competitions in the 2025/26 campaign. In the previous game, Real Madrid won 4-1 on the road against Levante. The home side ended with xG of 1.60, while the guests had 3.94, so there was never real doubt who would take the points. 

One of the biggest positives from the win over Levante was Jude Bellingham's return from injury. The attacking midfielder played the final twenty minutes and should be in contention for the starting lineup against Atletico Madrid. 

Real Madrid have some problems with missing players, too. Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ferland Mendy, and Antonio Rudiger are unavailable for the game at Metropolitano Stadium.