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2025 ATP Finals betting odds, player analysis & prediction

By Deniss Novickis | Published: November 9, 2025

Palasport Olimpico is the venue for the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals - eight best players in the world will compete in Turin on 9-16 November. Jannik Sinner will try to defend his title, as the Italian will battle it out with Carlos Alcaraz for the right to end the year as the world's number one.

While the two players mentioned above are the undoubted leaders of men's tennis nowadays, Taylor Fritz, Alexander Zverev and other contenders will have different ideas on the possible outcome. MightyTips previews the event in northern Italy, analysing betting odds and players' form before giving out a prediction on the winner.

Pic about ATP Finals prediction

2025 ATP Finals winner odds

Player Odds to win ATP Finals
Jannik Sinner 1.57
Carlos Alcaraz 2.50
Taylor Fritz 16.00
Alexander Zverev 13.00
Ben Shelton 51.00
Alex de Minaur 67.00
Félix Auger-Aliassime 51.00
Lorenzo Musetti 41.00

2025 ATP Finals draw and odds to win the group

Jimmy Connors Group

  • Carlos Alcaraz (2)
  • Taylor Fritz (6)
  • Alex de Minaur (7)
  • Lorenzo Musetti (9)
Player To win the group
Carlos Alcaraz 1.25
Taylor Fritz 7.00
Alex de Minaur 11.00
Lorenzo Musetti 11.00

Björn Borg Group

  • Jannik Sinner (1, champion)
  • Alexander Zverev (3)
  • Ben Shelton (5)
  • Félix Auger-Aliassime (8)
Player To win the group
Jannik Sinner 1.12
Alexander Zverev 6.00
Ben Shelton 26.00
Félix Auger-Aliassime 26.00

ATP Finals prize money

Each group-stage win awards $396,500 and 200 ranking points, while a semifinal victory brings in $1,183,500 and 400 points. Winning the final is worth $2,367,000 and an additional 500 points. If a player goes unbeaten throughout the tournament, including the participation fee of $331,000, the champion can earn a total of $5,071,000.

Who is playing at the ATP Finals?

Jannik Sinner

Sinner is clearly on a roll right now, winning the tournaments in Vienna and Paris at the end of October. He prevailed in 10 straight matches during those two weeks, losing a single set to Zverev in the final in Vienna.

Having won both the Australian Open and Wimbledon earlier this year and finishing runner-up at Roland Garros and the US Open, he has shown outstanding consistency on every surface. If he's at full fitness, Sinner's accuracy, enhanced serve, and calm under pressure could see him claim another victory in front of his home crowd and even finish the year as the leader of the ATP rankings.

Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz came to the French capital trying to win his maiden ATP Paris Masters, but lost his first match to Cameron Norrie instead. He has already captured seven Grand Slam titles during his career, including this year's French Open and US Open, as he defeated Sinner in both finals.

He has won eight titles this year, three more than Sinner, and has a serious head-to-head advantage in past meetings against the Italian. However, in his two previous ATP Finals, Alcaraz couldn't even make it to the deciding match. It remains to be seen whether he can finally break the Turin's curse.

Taylor Fritz

Fritz triumphed in two grass tournaments during this season, while also winning the United Cup with the USA. He played at two ATP Finals before and made it out of the group each time, losing to Sinner in the final last year.

Fritz’s game is built around consistency, balance, and composure. His strong first serve and driving flat forehand give him the tools to control rallies and close out points with precision. He’s particularly effective on hard courts, where his footwork and timing stand out. With sharp tactical instincts and a calm, focused mentality, Fritz often finds a way to prevail in tense, high-pressure battles.

Alexander Zverev

Zverev made it to the later stages of the tournaments in Vienna and Paris, yet lost to Sinner both times, in the final and the semifinal, respectively. He was smashed 6-0, 6-1 in France; however, he still has decent statistics in past meetings with other ATP Finals contenders, except for Djokovic (5-9) and Fritz (5-9), who are in the other group.

The German has won this tournament twice before, in 2018 and 2021. Yet he has only one title to his name this year, prevailing at the BMW Open on clay in April. The 2025 Australian Open runner-up remains a formidable contender on indoor courts, where his strong serve and flat backhand are suited perfectly.​​

Ben Shelton

Shelton is set to make his debut at the ATP Finals. The 23-year-old American has won his first ATP Masters 1000 title in 2025, defeating Karen Khachanov in the final of the Canadian Open in August. He also managed to reach the semifinals of the Australian Open, repeating his best Grand Slam result to date.

Shelton's greatest strength is his powerful left-handed serve, which frequently exceeds 140 mph. He's aggressive by nature, often stepping inside the baseline to take control with his explosive forehand. Backed by natural confidence, fierce competitiveness, and consistent progress on hard courts, Shelton is a genuine danger to anyone across the net.

Alex de Minaur

De Minaur has one tournament victory to his name in 2025, winning the Washington Open in July. He defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final, having saved three championship points. The problem with the Australian is that he has an awful head-to-head record versus other participants.

Alex de Minaur’s greatest asset is his phenomenal speed and court coverage, earning him the nickname Demon. He thrives on counterpunching, using his anticipation and skills to turn defence into offense seamlessly. While not the most powerful player, de Minaur is mentally tough and tactically sharp, being especially effective in long, grinding rallies.

Félix Auger-Aliassime

Auger-Aliassime was victorious in three tournaments in 2025, winning in Adelaide, Montpellier, and Brussels, while also going through to the semifinals at the US Open. He already played at the ATP Finals in 2022, when he defeated Rafael Nadal but still couldn't make it out of the group.

The Canadian is known for his explosive athleticism, powerful serve, and aggressive baseline game. His forehand is a major weapon, allowing him to dictate play and finish points decisively. He moves exceptionally well for his height, enabling strong defence and quick transitions to offence. Félix also excels at net play, showcasing sharp volleys and smart positioning. His all-court versatility, combined with mental composure and relentless competitiveness, makes him one of the most dynamic and promising players on the ATP Tour.

Lorenzo Musetti

Musetti had to win the event in Athens to qualify for the ATP Finals, but he lost the final to Novak Djokovic in three sets. However, the Serbian withdrew from the tournament in Turin due to a shoulder injury, and that's how the home crowd got their second player in the group stage.

He is celebrated for his elegant one-handed backhand and creative shot-making. His game blends classical technique with modern flair, emphasising variety, touch, and tactical intelligence. Musetti often uses drop shots, slices, and angles to disrupt opponents' rhythm. With strong defensive skills and smooth transition to offence, Musetti's artistry and versatility make him one of the most stylish and unpredictable players on tour.

Who are the past winners?

Year Champion Finalist
2024 Jannik Sinner Taylor Fritz
2023 Novak Djokovic Jannik Sinner
2022 Novak Djokovic Casper Ruud
2021 Alexander Zverev Daniil Medvedev
2020 Daniil Medvedev Dominic Thiem
2019 Stefanos Tsitsipas Dominic Thiem
2018 Alexander Zverev Novak Djokovic
2017 Grigor Dimitrov David Goffin
2016 Andy Murray Novak Djokovic
2015 Novak Djokovic Roger Federer

ATP Finals key betting stats

  • Sinner prevailed last year by winning all five matches without dropping a set.
  • The top seeded player won the last two events, but only four out of the previous ten.
  • There are two debutants this year: Ben Shelton and Lorenzo Musetti, who got in because Novak Djokovic withdrew at the very last moment.

Our 2025 ATP Finals prediction

Sinner is simply unstoppable right now, and we can't bet against him, even though he won only five of his 15 matches against Alcaraz. The home court advantage could be a serious factor here, but Sinner would be the rightful favourite even without the passionate support of the Italian fans.

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Deniss Novickis

Deniss Novickis

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Review Author

Deniss Novickis

Deniss Novickis

I’ve been a keen sports fan since childhood, and the World Cup 1994 in the United States is probably the first big competition I remember in detail. Who can forget a five-goal match by Oleg Salenko that didn't mean a thing?! I’ve worked in UEFA for 15 years, so I no longer watch football nowadays. My favourite sports are American football, baseball, darts, and snooker, and I know everything about the UFC.