Wales vs France Six Nations match prediction, February 15th

By Deniss Novickis | Published: February 13, 2026, 15:30

Wales host France at the Millennium Stadium on Sunday, desperately hoping to avoid finishing last in the Six Nations Championship for the third year in a row.

Up to fifth in the men's world rugby rankings and defending the Six Nations crown, France shouldn't have much of a problem. The Welshmen suffered a heavy defeat in England last weekend, and while they'll do their best to avoid the Wooden Spoon, things are not looking promising for Steve Tandy and Co.

Building on this, MightyTips delivers a preview of the Cardiff encounter, breaking down the odds, recent form, and team updates, before suggesting a couple of value bets for the test in Cardiff.

Despite diametrically opposed results in recent years, the sides are dead even in past head-to-head battles. Each team was victorious 51 times, with three more games ending in a draw. However, France prevailed in the last seven tests, winning by at least 13 points in the previous three. The last time Wales defeated the French at home was in March 2018, when they celebrated a 14-13 victory.

Wales lost all five games in the 2025 Six Nations Championship, finishing in last place for the second time in a row. Moreover, they earned just two victories during the whole calendar year, both times beating Japan by narrow margins. In July, Tandy became the coach, and his team won 24-23 over Japan, while also suffering heavy defeats against Argentina, New Zealand, and South Africa. 2026 didn't start any better, as Wales was beaten 48-7 by England in Twickenham.

Wales injuries & team news

After the defeat in Twickenham, Steve Tandy has made four changes to his starting XV. The main talking point is the Six Nations debut for Olly Cracknell, who replaces Josh Macleod. The back row is also reshaped, with Aaron Wainwright shifting to blindside and Alex Mann moving across to openside.

In the front row, Rhys Carre and Tomas Francis come into the starting side, joined by the captain, Dewi Lake. The midfielder Joe Hawkins is also returning to the starting XV. "There are a few changes for this week. A lot of it is based on who we are playing. Olly Cracknell has done a full training week and also played really well in the autumn. We were bitterly disappointed with the performance last week. We've addressed it in meetings. It's a massive lesson for us", said Tandy.

While France were defeated 26-25 by England in Twickenham, they still managed to claim the 2025 Six Nations title. Four more defeats were suffered during last year, as the French lost three times to New Zealand in July and were also beaten by South Africa during the Autumn Nations Series. Victories against Australia and Fiji in November did restore some pride. France started the new year with a bang, as they smashed Ireland 36-14 in Saint-Denis, scoring 22 unanswered points before half-time.

France injuries & team news

France have suffered a significant blow in midfield. Centre Nicolas Depoortere has been ruled out due to muscle soreness during a weights session. He showed incredible performance in the win over Ireland, beating more defenders than any other player on the pitch. Yoram Moefana is another player to miss the match. He picked up a knee knock and was unable to attend training prior to Round Two.

Fabien Brau-Boirie will make his international debut alongside Emilien Gailleton to replace the injured teammates. In fact, both of them are teammates and play for Section Paloise.

"The fact that they play together regularly, and train together, creates greater understanding, which, in those instinctive moments, whether in attack or defence, adds a special connection", says France coach Fabien Galthie.

• The total line for this game is set at 59.5 points. In their last five head-to-head meetings, France and Wales combined to surpass this mark three times. However, the previous instance of these teams exceeding a total of 59.5 points was in February 2002, when France won 37-33 in Cardiff.
• The handicap line is 31.5 points in France's favour. France have beaten Wales by a margin of 32 or more points just twice, including in their previous encounter in 2025. On that occasion, France celebrated a 43-0 victory over Wales in Saint-Denis.
• While France defeated Wales in the last seven tests, the Welshmen were victorious in eight out of nine matches before that.
• Wales's opponents have scored at least 48 points in four of the past five games against them.

La France et le Pays de Galles se sont affrontés à 105 reprises, avec 51 victoires de chaque côté et 3 matchs nuls 😮#GuinnessM6N #rugby pic.twitter.com/FE90hRx3tn

— RugbyPass FR 🇫🇷 (@RugbyPass_FR) February 13, 2026

France have dominated Wales in recent years, beating them in the previous seven head-to-head meetings. The gap in quality between the sides is clear right now. If Les Bleus start fast and control possession, this could get away from Wales quickly. We're backing France to cover the -31.5 points handicap.

Wales struggled badly in attack against England and now face an even more structured and powerful defence. Creating consistent scoring chances won't be easy. France's pressure could limit Welsh possession and make it difficult for the hosts to reach 15 points. Under 14.5 team points for Wales looks like solid value.

Become a member of our Telegram channel, where we provide daily betting tips and predictions on various sports events.