Six Nations Winner Odds and Round 5 predictions on March 14th

By Deniss Novickis | Published: March 14, 2026, 15:30

The 2026 Six Nations Championship ends this Saturday, and we have a real intrigue ahead of the last three games. It looked like France would easily defend the title right before the penultimate round of matches, when they suffered a surprising 50-40 loss in Scotland.

Now we have three nations all hoping to lift the trophy, yet France are still the red-hot favourites to finish first. MightyTips analyses tournament permutations, teams’ chances of winning, their current form and squad news before providing our betting tips and predictions.

A team receives four points for a win and two points for a draw. One bonus point is given if a team scores four or more tries, or if it loses by seven points or fewer. If a team both scores four or more tries and loses by seven points or fewer, it earns both bonus points.

Six Nations Championship permutations

In the event that two or more teams are level on table points, the team with the higher points difference - calculated as points scored minus points conceded in all five matches - will be ranked above the others. Here’s what each team needs in the final round:

France remain in a strong position thanks to their superior points difference. If Scotland defeat Ireland, France could still win the title by beating England and either matching Scotland’s number of bonus points or finishing with more. If Ireland win or draw against Scotland, any French victory in the final match against England would secure the championship.

Ireland can claim the title if they beat Scotland, ideally with a bonus point to reach 19 points. For that to be enough, England would then need to defeat France. If France were to draw with England, Ireland would have to end the tournament with more bonus points than France.

Scotland would win the title with any victory over Ireland if England defeat France. Even a loss could still be enough if Scotland earn two bonus points, provided Ireland do not collect a try-scoring bonus point and Scotland maintain a better points difference than Ireland. If France and England draw, any Scottish win would deliver the championship. A draw with Ireland could also be sufficient if Scotland finish with more bonus points than France in their respective matches. If France beat England, Scotland would need to defeat Ireland and earn at least one more bonus point than France.

Ireland vs. Scotland (15:10 CET)

Ireland come into this match as the favourites, sitting at 1.44. They are on a 3-match winning streak after the 36-14 loss in France in the first round. Coach Andy Farrell has made some changes to the starting XV. Jack Conan starts at blindside flanker, joining Josh van der Flier and captain Caelan Doris in a formidable back row. In the centres, Stuart McCloskey and Garry Ringrose maintain their partnership, while Tommy O’Brien and Rob Baloucoune remain in a dynamic back three with Jamie Osborne.

Scotland suffered a shocking 18-15 defeat in Italy in their first match, but won the next three as well. Gregor Townsend has made three changes to his starting line-up, selecting a new second row of Max Williamson and Grant Gilchrist due to injuries. "It's out of our hands, really. We can only do a certain amount. It would be great to finish the championship with a win and on a high", Scotland coach said.

Prediction: Scotland win a thriller, let’s say the score is 27-23.
Best bet: Scotland +5.5 points at 1.80.

Wales vs. Italy (17:40 CET)

This test has no real tournament meaning, as Wales are destined to finish last and earn the Wooden Spoon for the third year in a row, while Italy will take the fourth place, if there are no miracles. The Italians are having an amazing campaign, highlighted by beating England in their fourth game. We don’t want to go deep into this one and believe that Italy should prevail in Cardiff.

Prediction: Italy win 20-13.
Best bet: Under 45.5 points at 1.90.

France vs. England (21:10 CET)

With the title all but secured, France suffered a surprising loss in Edinburgh, ending their five-game winning streak. The French leapfrogged England and took the third spot in the World Rugby rankings recently, and now it’s time to prove it on the pitch. They are huge favourites now, sitting at 1.14. Coach Fabien Galthie has made four changes to the side that lost in Scotland last week, most notably Temo Matiu, who makes his international debut. "England are not living up to their expectations, but they are still formidable. We're all focused on this moment of truth", Galthie said.

The Red Rose won 12 games in a row before losing three straight, and now they are destined to finish fifth in the tournament. For the final round of the Six Nations, Maro Itoje continues as captain, with only one change from the team that began in Rome - Ollie Chessum coming in to start at blindside flanker. There is no doubt that England will do everything to end on a high while also spoiling the French party. The lack of pressure might be a good thing here.

Prediction: We believe this match will be much closer than the bookies think. Let’s say, England shocks the world by winning 34-30.
Best bet: England +15.5 points at 1.80.

Yes, we are going with the least possible scenario, predicting that Scotland will win in Dublin. After that victory the whole country will cheer for England, a once in a lifetime experience, and their victory in Paris will send the whole country to a fiesta long into Sunday morning.

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