Nurmagomedov vs Figueiredo: prediction and odds for UFC 324 fight

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: January 22, 2026

Umar Nurmagomedov will face a former UFC champion, Deiveson Figueiredo, in the prelims of UFC 324, taking place on January 24 at the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. This is a real "next contender vs proven name" bantamweight clash.

While Figueiredo has already had his title run in another division and is moving closer to retirement, Umar is still on the hunt for gold and will try to prove he deserves it against the Brazilian. In this Nurmagomedov vs Figueiredo prediction, we break down the odds, key stats, and give our take on how the fight will play out.

The key difference in this matchup is the age gap. Nurmagomedov is much younger, still in his prime. There is also a small height difference in Umar's favour, but it's hardly significant at the bantamweight level. In terms of reach, there is no real advantage to speak of, as both fighters are almost identical physically.

Umar, cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov, entered the UFC unbeaten and began his rise in the bantamweight division back in 2021. Despite the hype, his first real test against a top-15 opponent came only three years after his debut. He faced Cory Sandhagen, who accepted the fight twice, and fought Umar shortly after returning from injury. Umar won that bout convincingly and earned a title shot right after. However, he was outclassed by Merab Dvalishvili before bouncing back with a win over No.9 Mario Bautista in October.

As you can tell by his last name, Nurmagomedov's strongest weapon is ground control, though even Dvalishvili, who is also a wrestler, managed to beat him on the feet. Cardio has been an issue at times, but once Umar gains top control, he keeps it until the end of the round. In fact, four out of his seven UFC wins came by decision.

Umar Nurmagomedov and team working hard to get his cardio peak ready for #UFC324 🏃‍♂️🥊 pic.twitter.com/wdb1jmz6mj

— Red Corner MMA (@RedCorner_MMA) January 20, 2026

Umar Nurmagomedov's last fights

Figueiredo had an impressive title run at the flyweight division, defending the belt four times. The fourth defence ended with a draw against Brandon Moreno, because the Brazilian was deducted a point. That bout marked the start of a legendary rivalry, as Figueiredo went on to fight Moreno four times in a row, eventually losing the title in their final meeting.

After moving up to bantamweight, Figueiredo picked up wins over well-known names such as Rob Font, Cody Garbrandt, and Marlon Vera. However, it became noticeable that he had lost some of his athletic edge at the higher weight. Later on, he suffered back-to-back defeats against Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen. Now he comes into this fight after a split decision win over Montel Jackson, who currently sits only 15th in the rankings. Figueiredo presses hard from the opening bell and relies on his powerful striking in early rounds, because cardio has often been an issue. He can be surprisingly effective in wrestling, but against a younger and faster guy like Nurmagomedov, he can't rely on his ground game that much.

Deiveson Figueiredo’s signature goblin run and punch pic.twitter.com/SCR0M6p71j

— 🌴ᴛʜᴇᴀʀᴛᴏꜰᴡᴀʀ🌴 (@TheArtOfWar6) August 5, 2024

Figueiredo's last fights

Nurmagomedov doesn't yet have the same list of elite names on his record as Figueiredo, and he couldn't get past Dvalishvili. Still, this matchup should be a more manageable challenge for him. Figueiredo is clearly past his prime, has lost some of his sharpness, and has struggled to get past the fighters from the current top five of the division.

The UFC is distinctly pushing Umar towards another title shot, and a victory over a former champion like Figueiredo would fit that narrative perfectly. The bad thing is that this fight will most likely turn into a hugging competition on the canvas for most of 15 minutes. Umar is winning via decision in the end.

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