UFC 326 Holloway vs Oliveira 2: Predictions and betting tips

By Deniss Novickis | Published: March 5, 2026, 16:30

After a lackluster card in Mexico, UFC returns with a numbered event in Paradise, Nevada. This is actually quite a decent card, even though we won’t have a real title fight headlining the event. Instead, the main event is a rematch between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira for the symbolic BMF title. Not being misogynistic, but the absence of women’s fights is another sign of a spectacular card.

MightyTips presents UFC 326 betting predictions and tips ahead of the event in T-Mobile Arena. We’ll forecast each bout, identify valuable betting spots, and advise on which fights to avoid in terms of betting.

The UFC 326 main card also features a clash of two ranked middleweights: Caio Borralho and Reinier De Ridder. Raul Rosas Jr. will try to defeat Rob Font and get into the bantamweight rankings. The battle between Drew Dober and Michael Johnson guarantees fireworks, just as the fight between Gregory Rodrigues and Brunno Ferreira. The prelims include plenty of good athletes, including the former UFC bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt. Check out the full schedule for the event in Las Vegas:

Main card

• Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira
• Caio Borralho vs. Reinier De Ridder
• Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr.
• Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson
• Gregory Rodrigues vs. Bruno Ferreira

Preliminary card

• Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long
• Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage
• Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes
• Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

• Su Mudaerji vs. Jesús Santos Aguilar
• Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay
• Lee Jeong-yeong vs. Gaston Bolaños
• Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Have a look at our UFC betting tips, as we start with the main event and break down every matchup all the way to the early prelims. One important thing to note: long-term success comes from being selective, so you should not bet on every fight, but rather focus on the ones with the greatest value.

What a KO #Holloway #Gaetje #bmf #UFC300 pic.twitter.com/d1lUkd9Cz1

— Freedom (@born2bewise) April 14, 2024

Main event: Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira prediction

Although Oliveira appears to have the advantage on the ground, this matchup doesn’t project as a prolonged grappling battle. Both fighters are at their best in high-paced exchanges and are more than willing to meet in the middle and trade. Holloway might seem slightly undersized at lightweight, but his speed, precision, and crisp boxing give him a clear edge in open space.

Oliveira’s relentless forward pressure can open doors, yet that aggression also creates countering opportunities for Holloway. Let’s not forget that the Brazilian was knocked out five times before, and the KO by Ilia Topuria happened only seven months ago.
Prediction: Max Holloway finds a knockout in the second part of the fight.

Co-main event: Caio Borralho vs. Reinier De Ridder prediction

Let’s be honest here - the odds on De Ridder winning are 3.25 just because of the way he lost his last bout to Brendan Allen. While the Dutchman started the fight well, he quit after the fourth round, when there was still time to change the situation. In the meantime, he was on a 4-fight winning streak before that.

Borralho won all seven bouts in the UFC before losing to Nassourdine Imavov in September. Betting on the Brazilian at 1.36 has no value whatsoever, especially because he won’t have a significant advantage on the mat and should be slightly smaller than his opponent. While pass is the play for us, betting De Ridder at 3.25 might be promising at the end.
Prediction: Caio Borralho wins a close decision. Pass this fight.

Featured fight: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. prediction

A classic battle between striker and grappler in this one. Font’s takedown defence is poor, yet he was submitted just once during his 15-year career, and that happened 8,5 years ago. Rosas Jr. will take him down at will, but the biggest question is - could he hold Font on the ground for long periods of time?

The Mexican is just 21 years old, and while he’s improving fast, his striking is not good. If the ground game does not work for Rosas, Font will easily prevail here by simply throwing one-twos and moving around the cage. While taking Font at 2.80 might look tempting for some, he is just too easy to put down on the mat. Rosas by decision is the choice.

Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. by a 30-27 decision.

Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson prediction

A real contender for the Fight of the Night bonus, this will be a clash of two suspicious chins. The 39-year-old Johnson was knocked out three times along his 43-bout career, but now he is on a three-fight winning streak. He is still a very technical and fast boxer, but time is taking over slowly but surely.

Dober is two years younger, but he lost four of his previous six fights, three of them by way of TKO. There’s no way this fight will take place on the ground, as both athletes just love to trade heavy shots. Johnson is a slight favourite at 1.83, but even Baba Vanga would not be able to predict the outcome here. One thing is for certain, though - somebody is going down. That’s why betting under 2.5 rounds at 1.66 looks like a smart play to make.

Prediction: Gun to the head, Michael Johnson wins this by KO after surviving an early storm by Dober.

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Bruno Ferreira prediction

An all-Brazilian encounter is another one destined for the Fight of the Night bonus. It is a rematch, as three years ago Ferreira managed to catch his compatriot with a vicious counter left in the very first round. Being a jiu-jitsu specialist, Rodrigues often forgets about that, and his aggressive style has led to four KO/TKO losses during his career.

However, while Ferreira did make sensible progress since their last fight, you just feel that Robocop can do more in the cage and is a better fighter overall. Besides, we all know how you feel when you have a chance for revenge. Rodrigues is in amazing shape, according to his Instagram, and he surely trained his heart out for this one. Despite him always being vulnerable to counterattacks, we’ll risk it here, choosing Robocop’s victory by knockout.

Prediction: An ideal revenge by Gregory Rodrigues, let’s say it’s a walk-off KO.

not enough talk about Cody Garbrandt this week. CODY NO LOVE FIGHT WEEK ‼️ pic.twitter.com/I5qLGvPdp0

— Dovy🔌 (@DovySimuMMA) March 4, 2026

Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long prediction

It is very hard to go with Cody Garbrandt in 2026, but we’ll do just that. He was knocked out four times before, but all of those losses came against top opposition. It’s obvious that the former bantamweight champion is close to the end of his career, yet he still has class and experience.

Xiao Long is seven years younger. He is super active, but just look at the opponents he has faced. Nobody from that list can be compared with modern Garbrandt, and the American comes at 2.30, too. While passing might be the move to make, we just can’t resist the temptation to bet on the ex-champ at plus money. The Chinese athlete has three knockout losses already, and there’s a world where he gets the fourth one on Saturday.

Prediction: Cody Garbrandt outboxes Xiao Long to win by unanimous decision.

Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage prediction

There are some questions that zero MMA fans have answers to, and one of them is this: What is Brundage still doing in the UFC? The guy has two legit victories in his last 11 (!) fights, one of them over already released Julian Marquez, the other against Zachary Reese, who is not good at all.

Johnson, an unbeaten prospect with six knockout victories, should send Brundage straight to Ghost City. If his win by KO/TKO at 1.55 is not good enough for you, take Johnson in round 1 instead. We will use the knockout victory by Johnson as a juicy parlay piece, hoping that Brundage will continue his journey in PFL, LFA, or any other promotion afterwards.

Prediction: Donte Johnson by TKO in round 1.

Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes prediction

Turcios won one of his previous four fights - a split decision against Kevin Natividad, who’s already cut from the UFC roster. What’s even more important, Turcios was speaking about calling it a day. Now he’ll face a much hungrier fighter, the choke specialist Montes.

This Venezuelan fighter is excellent at getting front headlocks, and six victories by submission prove just that. Even if he won’t get the SUB, this fight is his to lose. Montes by submission at 3.80 looks very tempting, yet our choice is safety here, taking his method of victory double chance (decision or SUB at 1.74).

Prediction: Alberto Montes finds an anaconda choke to terminate Turcios’ UFC contract.

Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel prediction

Durden is another fighter with his UFC career on the line, having lost five of his previous six bouts. Now, he will have a wrestling advantage here, and he always tries to bring the fight to his opponent. However, Tumendemberel hits like a truck, and Durden was knocked out twice in the last 18 months.

This fight should be a one-way traffic either way, and it looks very unpredictable, given that the Mongolian started his career just six years ago. Under 2.5 rounds at 1.64 might be a good leg for your accumulator, but we’ll pass this one altogether.

Prediction: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel knocks Cody Durden out, and one more fighter is released from the UFC. It’s a pass in terms of betting.

Su Mudaerji vs. Jesús Santos Aguilar prediction

This fight features our underdog of the card, Aguilar, sitting at 3.05. While he is not excellent at striking, Aguilar has a nasty guillotine choke. That’s the move that has brought him five of his seven submission victories. In the meantime, Su Mudaerji had been submitted six times previously.

Yes, the Chinese fighter will have a size and striking advantage, but we must remember one cliche - Mexicans do not get knocked out. The bookmakers offer very juicy odds on Aguilar winning by submission or decision, but we don’t want to choose the method of victory in this one. The odds of 3.05 are good enough to simply pick the side of the underdog.
Prediction: Jesús Santos Aguilar wins by guillotine choke once again.

Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay prediction

When Nurgozhay came to the UFC, undefeated at the time, many thought he was a legit light heavyweight prospect with the potential to reach the top 10. The reality was a bit different, though. The Kazakh has lost both of his bouts in the promotion via submissions, and he wasn’t impressive at all.

Now he is up against Tobias, who has found 11 finishes in his 14 victories. Let’s just put it this way - the Brazilian looks better in every aspect of the game. The facial spasm won’t help Nurgozhay either. Sometimes the simplest decision is also the correct one. Tobias will find a finish once again, and there’s a feeling we won’t see Nurgozhay in UFC after this card.

Prediction: Rafael Tobias gets his hand raised via submission.

Lee Jeong-yeong vs. Gaston Bolaños prediction

We have a low-level battle between two guys who haven’t been convincing in the UFC. Lee is a huge favourite at 1.32, but picking him at that price is a suicide. Bolaños prevailed via decision twice in the promotion, and both of his opponents are no longer in it. He also had been finished in both of his other UFC fights. This bout has red flags all over, and we can’t see value in any of the lines available. It’s a pass all the way.

Prediction: We pick Bolaños just because his odds are way higher. It’s a pass. DO NOT bet this one.

Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato prediction

The early prelims start with the undefeated debutant, Fernandez, up against Bellato, who is another guy that just doesn't belong in the UFC. Just remember that he was wobbled by a very weak fighter, Ihor Potieria, his only UFC win so far. He also fought to a majority draw versus Jimmy Crute, had a no-contest with Paul Craig, and lost to Navajo Stirling.

Fernandez is 6-0 in his professional career with five knockouts. He will always fight for your money, and you just can’t imagine he’ll be looking for a way out of a fight, like Bellato did. The Brazilian already lost twice by KO, and in this one, we can’t see any other scenario.

Prediction: Luke Fernandez knocks Bellato out, and the UFC will cut another athlete from the roster.

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