UFC 324 predictions and betting tips

By Deniss Novickis | Published: January 22, 2026

UFC returns after a 6-week break, and this is the start of a new era, as the best MMA promotion is saying bye to the selling of PPVs. The first event in cooperation with Paramount promises to be a banger. While we lost one title fight between Amanda Nunes and Kayla Harrison due to the latter requiring surgery, there are still plenty of interesting bouts and big names on the card.

In this article, MightyTips will provide you with UFC 324 betting predictions and tips ahead of the event in Las Vegas. We'll make a forecast for every single fight, predicting the winner and the method of victory, while advising which bouts are better to avoid in terms of betting.

Thе UFC 324 card is headlined by the fight for the interim lightweight championship between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett, with the winner to face Ilia Topuria for the real belt. Former bantamweight champion Sean O' Malley will battle Song Yadong, and there are two more ex-champions in Rose Namajunas and Deiveson Figueiredo. Here's the full schedule of the event in Paradise:

Main card

• Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett
• Sean O' Malley vs. Song Yadong
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis
• Natália Silva vs. Rose Namajunas
• Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva

Prelims

• Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
• Ateba Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev
• Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas
• Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson
• Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez
• Josh Hokit vs. Denzel Freeman
• Ricky Turcios vs. Cameron Smotherman
• Adam Fugitt vs. Ty Miller

Check our UFC 324 betting tips, where we begin with the main event and break down every matchup all the way to the early preliminaries. Remember, long-term success depends on selectivity - avoid betting on every fight and concentrate on the opportunities that offer the most value.

Paddy Pimlet jumps a triangle, tries guillotine, turns that into a triangle again, then also locks it into an arm bar

Gaethje has ZERO chance on the ground 😭pic.twitter.com/bsivncXkP1

— Mohi (@mohithegoat) January 20, 2026

Main event: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett prediction

Pimblett enters this matchup aiming to show he belongs among the lightweight division's elite. For Gaethje, this bout represents what could be his final run at the championship, along with a potential showdown against Ilia Topuria. Paddy's path to victory is straightforward: weather the storm early and look for chances to bring Gaethje to the ground, where his opportunities increase significantly.

Prolonged striking exchanges heavily favour Gaethje, whose aggression and power make him a nightmare on the feet. This fight likely plays out in one of two ways - a methodical, ground-heavy battle or an explosive stand-up war. We're siding with the experience here, picking Gaethje to secure the interim lightweight title. He has better striking and better cardio, so this is his fight to lose if he avoids stupid mistakes on the mat.

Prediction: Justin Gaethje to win by decision or KO/TKO, even though Scousers don't get knocked out.

Co-main event: Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong prediction

This bout highly energises O'Malley. His recent camps focused on grappling-heavy opponents, which limited the ability to showcase his striking style. This time around, he faces an opponent who prefers to keep things standing, allowing Sean to operate comfortably. Expect him to control range, stay mobile, and draw Song into exchanges on his terms.

With only three rounds scheduled, both fighters should maintain a steady pace throughout. Song's forward pressure will create openings, and if the fight unfolds at distance, Suga's accuracy and timing should shine. We're backing him to earn the victory by a knockout, even though the Chinese athlete is very difficult to put away.

Prediction: Welcome to the Suga Show!

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis prediction

Seasoned UFC bettors know two simple rules - do not bet on Derrick Lewis and do not bet against Derrick Lewis. While the Black Beast is 40 years old, it is yet not critical for the heavyweight division, and he still can put anyone away in a second. Lewis has three victories via KO in his previous four fights, losing a boring 5-round decision to Jailton Almeida in between (FBI, don't you want to investigate that one?)

As for Cortes-Acosta, he won seven of the last eight bouts, including two knockouts in November 2025. This athlete with a baseball background has all the skills to outbox Lewis, while staying at a distance and dancing around the cage. However, there's a chance he will think that now he can knock anybody out. In this case, the Dominican is going straight to Shadow City. We do follow the rule named in the first sentence of this prediction.

Prediction: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by decision, but it's a pass.

Natália Silva vs. Rose Namajunas prediction

Silva is replacing the former champion Alexa Grasso, whom she beat in May 2025. The Brazilian won all seven of her UFC fights, and many believe she is the one to take the belt from the current champion, Valentina Shevchenko, in the near future. Silva is a very skilful fighter with the ability to finish her opponents both on the feet and on the mat.

Namajunas, the former strawweight champion, is five years older. First and foremost, the odds of 4.00 on her winning in this one are disrespectful to say the least. Thug Rose is an amazing athlete as well, and this bout is going to be close. She will be smaller, but she also has plenty of ways to earn a victory. While Silva winning via decision looks like the most possible outcome, the odds of 1.25 in women's MMA are never worth a shot. Moreover, betting half a unit on Namajunas is very reasonable in this one.

Prediction: A 29-28 decision either way, but we hope it's Rose Namajunas who gets the victory.

Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva prediction

Another fight with a huge favourite, as Silva sits at 1.36. Yes, he lost via knockout to Diego Lopes in his previous encounter, but he was clearly in front before that crazy spinning back elbow got him. Let's not forget that Lopes is an elite contender who will have a title rematch against Alexander Volkanovski next week. The odds of 3.25 might look a bit disrespectful to Allen, who is a very technical striker.

However, Silva has dynamite in his hands, and Allen's technique might not be enough here. The Englishman does not possess the power to knock his opponent out, and neither does he have the ability to hold Silva on the mat. Allen himself is a durable fighter, and he should have enough to survive until the final bell. Yet it is very hard for us to see Allen getting his hand raised here, despite the juicy odds on offer.

Prediction: Jean Silva wins a decision, but it shouldn't be close.

Umar Nurmagomedov sending Raoni Barcelos to the shadow realm 👻pic.twitter.com/Sh5tIQBBBk

— MMA On Point (@mmaonpoint) January 14, 2026

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo prediction

Nurmagomedov doesn't have the same calibre of wins as Figueiredo yet, and his loss to Dvalishvili showed there are still levels to climb. That said, this is awful matchmaking. There's no secret that UFC are pushing Khabib's cousin to the top, yet this victory will hardly add anything to his resume.

Figueiredo is long past his prime, while cutting weight is still hard for him even after moving up a division. Besides, he has lost his knockout power since becoming a bantamweight. Only one winner in this one, even if you might be tempted by the odds of 9.00 on the Brazilian. Nurmagomedov is a decision guy, but this bet at 1.74 ain't good either. Figueiredo is washed, and while he used to be durable, there is no guarantee that he will survive to the scoring cards. A clear pass here.

Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins a 30-27 decision. Pass this one.

Ateba Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev prediction

We'll be compact with this bout - Gautier by murder. The Cameroonian has devastating power, winning the last eight fights by knockout, seven of them in the first round. It looks like the only way to beat Gautier is by wearing him down with grappling, as we don't know anything about his cardio yet. Can Pulyaev do it? Not a single chance. It will be another highlight reel knockout and another $50,000 bonus.

Prediction: Ateba Gautier by KO/TKO in round 1.

Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas prediction

After losing two fights in a row via devastating first-round knockouts in April and July 2025, Krylov is coming back to, arguably, save his career in the UFC. He is only 33, but the inactivity and an extension to a losing streak might be enough to release the Miner.

Bukauskas, on the other hand, won six of the seven bouts after returning to the UFC, including the last four. He is understandably on the up, gaining lots of confidence. The Baltic Gladiator opened up as a big favourite at 1.57, but the lines have moved significantly, and it's pretty much even money now. As I see it, people bet on Krylov because of his past success. We can't trust him at this point, and if you have to bet on this one, it's Bukauskas only. The odds of 1.72 look decent, but passing would be a smarter decision to take.

Prediction: Modestas Bukauskas wins, and it will likely be a knockout. We pass this one.

Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson prediction

Two ranked flyweights face off in this one. Curiously, Perez is two spots above Johnson, but he lost 5 (!) of the previous six fights. Yet let's look at these bouts closely. Perez was winning versus Asu Almabayev before making a silly mistake, and he lost to Tatsuro Taira because of a knee injury. Knocking out Matheus Nicolau was a nice scalp, and three losses before that happened against the elite in Muhammad Mokaev, Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo.

Johnson is the one who gave the current champion, Joshua Van, his only loss in the UFC. Perez is vulnerable on the mat, but Johnson doesn't have a great ground game, and this will be a striking affair. Another problem with Johnson is that he is a very slow starter, which makes the odds of 1.50 too small to take a shot. This is an excellent opportunity for in-play betting, taking Johnson at even money after he lost the first round. There's no value in betting on this fight before that, in our opinion.

Prediction: Charles Johnson wins a 29-28 decision, but it's another pass.

Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez prediction

This one is very interesting - the 39-year-old Johnson against the 33-year-old Hernandez, who has managed to revive his career with four straight victories. An excellent boxer, Johnson is coming back after an amazing win over Daniel Zellhuber. While his chin is very suspicious, the Menace has the tools to outbox Hernandez.

The latter, a favourite at 1.58, celebrated back-to-back TKO wins against Chase Hooper and Carlos Diego Ferreira in August and September 2025, respectively. Just like in the previous clash, Johnson is very beatable on the ground, but Hernandez doesn't have the tools to find a submission. We expect fireworks here, and Johnson is a good underdog at 2.40. Make no mistake - this has no guarantee whatsoever, but it is a value bet at very good odds.

Prediction: Michael Johnson via decision.

Josh Hokit vs. Denzel Freeman prediction

Obviously, we can't have a UFC event without a low-level heavyweight encounter. Here it is - Hokit, a former NFL player, versus Freeman, who also has fewer than 10 professional fights. Nothing much to say here, to be perfectly honest. Hokit will hope to use his wrestling, which should help him earn a victory via ground and pound.

Freeman will try to survive, make the opponent tired, and find a late knockout. This clash is totally unpredictable, as we don't have enough information on both athletes. Simply pass this one. We were about to write: ''Enjoy the show'', but this can hardly be called one.

Prediction: Gun to the head, it's Freeman via KO/TKO in the second half of the fight. Do not bet it.

Ricky Turcios vs. Cameron Smotherman prediction

Here we have two athletes on a two-fight losing streak, and whoever loses in this one will surely be taken off the UFC roster. Turcios, winner of the Ultimate Fighter Season 29, hasn't done much since arriving at the best promotion in the world. He had five fights since August 2021, losing three of them. Die-hard fans will never forget his passive performance against Aiemann Zahabi.

Smotherman hasn't been doing much better after winning his UFC debut versus Jake Hadley. Both have their backs against the wall, yet if you watched the bout against Zahabi, you would never put your money on Turcios again. Smotherman is the hungrier fighter, but he is sitting at 1.53. Betting on him via decision has some value, though, and that's where we are going.

Prediction: Cameron Smotherman wins 30-27 or 29-28 decision.

Adam Fugitt vs. Ty Miller prediction

The UFC matchmakers just hate Fugitt for some reason. His UFC debut was against Michael Morales, and later he was finished by Mike Malott and Islam Dulatov. Both of his victories came against guys who are no longer on the roster, and now they fed Fugitt to Miller.

The latter is only 25 with six professional wins and zero losses on the record, earning his contract last summer via Dana White Contender Series. Miller has amazing boxing skills, and the sky is the limit for him. If this fight is somewhat close, the refs will surely give it to Miller, but he sits at 1.22 only. However, Fugitt was finished in most of his fights, and you just sense that another knockout is incoming.

Prediction: Ty Miller will knock Fugitt out.

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