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UFC 323 predictions and betting tips

By Deniss Novickis | Published: December 4, 2025

The last pay-per-view event of the year is almost here, as T-Mobile Arena in Nevada will host UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2. In the main event, Merab Dvalishvili will try to set a record by defending his bantamweight championship belt for the fourth time in a year, in a rematch versus Petr Yan. The co-main event is another title fight, as the defending flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja will square off against Joshua Van.

Three more former UFC champions will feature in the main card, as this looks like another event to remember. MightyTips presents UFC 323 betting predictions and tips ahead of the tournament in Paradise. As always, we are looking for value betting spots, so there will be a few fights where we'll suggest passing, while still giving a prediction on the outcome.

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UFC 323 full fight card

Thе UFC 323 card is definitely not the best of the year, but it still features plenty of familiar names. Brandon Moreno and Jan Błachowicz both were UFC champions not that long ago, while Olympic champion Henry Cejudo won UFC belts in two different weight classes. Manuel Torres, Terrance McKinney, Nazim Sadykhov, and Jalin Turner are responsible for fireworks in the preliminaries. Here's the full schedule of the event in Nevada:

Main card

  • Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan
  • Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van
  • Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
  • Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
  • Jan Błachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov

Prelims

  • Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres
  • Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan
  • Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva
  • Nazim Sadykhov vs. Farès Ziam

Early prelims

  • Marvin Vettori vs. Bruno Ferreira
  • Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner
  • Iwo Baraniewski vs. İbo Aslan
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trócoli
  • Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos

UFC 323 main card predictions from MightyTips

Have a look at our UFC 323 betting tips, where we begin with the main event and break down every matchup all the way to the early prelims. Keep in mind that long-term success comes from being selective - don’t wager on every fight, but focus on the highest-value opportunities instead.

Main event: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan prediction

Merab has packed a lot into this year, and perhaps Yan is counting on that workload to catch up with him finally. But so far, the Machine hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. Even a week before the fight, he appears full of energy, precise, and in excellent condition.

This is a tough stylistic pairing for Yan. It's unlikely he'll get many chances to display his striking, since Merab will surely apply the pressure right away. Yan will spend most of the bout dealing with nonstop level changes and takedown attempts. Given that dynamic, our pick is Merab by decision.

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins another decision, but it will be closer this time.

Co-main event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van prediction

Pantoja is defending his flyweight championship for the fifth time against Van, who has already been victorious three times this year. While Van clearly has a striking advantage, he will be smaller and, what's even more important, will provide opportunities for the Cannibal to land takedowns.

Pantoja only needs a few of those to win the fight, and he is excellent at taking the back and sitting there. Moreover, he will have chances to find a submission. Yes, he breathes very heavily after 1.5 rounds, but he still does the job every single time. Van managed to beat Brandon Royval in a close scrap, but people forget the way Pantoja prevailed against him in both of their bouts. We are very impressed with Van's progress, but the writing is on the wall for him in this one.

Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja to win by submission.

Featured fight: Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira prediction

Now, let's be clear here. We still can't find any reason why Taira is the favourite. The Japanese fighter previously had two decent opponents in the UFC - he lost a split decision to Royval and beat Alex Perez due to the latter picking up a knee injury (and Taira lost the first round to him).

Just compare that to the resume of former champion Moreno, who is only 31 years of age. He'll have a significant advantage in striking, while his ground game is not that much worse. Considering all the title fights Moreno had, UFC would love a fresh face to become a contender, but that's the only thing that might help Taira get a victory.

Prediction: Brendon Moreno to celebrate a decision victory

Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott prediction

Cejudo announced a while ago that this will be his farewell fight, pointing out he doesn't have anything else to prove and earns enough money outside fighting. This is never a good sign, even though he has enough weapons to defeat Talbott. The latter, being a prospect that UFC would love to shine on the biggest stage, was declassed this January by another veteran, Raoni Barcelos.

Cejudo has the required level of wrestling to do the same thing, but what will his game plan be? If he decides to strike with Talbott, it might turn into a second knockout loss of his career. This bout has red flags all over it, and we recommend avoiding betting on it completely. If you just have to bet it, it's the underdog only, at juicy odds of 3.25. Yet his last win in the UFC happened 5.5 years ago.

Prediction: Henry Cejudo wins a decision, but pass is our choice.

Jan Błachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov prediction

The legendary Polish Power, without a victory for 3.5 years, welcomes to the cage Guskov, who is on a 4-fight winning streak. This is another fight where we were very surprised with the odds. Guskov lost to Volkan Oezdemir in his UFC debut, before beating Zac Pauga, Ryan Spann, Billy Elekana, and the washed Nikita Krylov.

Błachowicz had a debatable draw against Magomed Ankalaev and lost a split decision to the current champion, Alex Pereira. In March, he suffered a 29-28 decision loss to Carlos Ulberg, another top contender in the division. Guskov might have an advantage in speed here, but everything else is in favour of the Pole, and the odds are simply disrespectful to him. This is his fight, if he manages to avoid the lucky punch by Czarevitch.

Prediction: Jan Błachowicz gets back in the winning column, likely by a decision.

UFC 323 prelims predictions

Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres prediction

This is a classic grappler versus striker matchup with the potential of earning the Fight of the Night bonus. Dawson has an excellent ground game with 13 wins by submission. In the meantime, his chin is questionable to say the least - just remember that he fell after a jab by Bobby Green.

Torres has vicious knockout power, and 99% of his fights finish in the first round. There are two ways this fight will unfold: either Torres has an early knockout win, or Dawson survives the first round and prevails later on, likely by rear-naked choke or ground & pound. In any case, this fight just screams betting the under 2.5 rounds, but the odds are as low as 1.31. That might be a good parlay piece, but we'll pass this one in terms of betting and just enjoy the show.

Prediction: Grant Dawson by submission in the second half of the fight.

Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan prediction

Here's another bout featuring an athlete who doesn't go past the first round. McKinney has 24 professional fights under his belt, and the second round started in only four of them. Just look at the odds of 1.27 for betting under 1.5 rounds! A Performance of the Night bonus is guaranteed for one of these two.

It's kill or be killed for the American, and this fight is a 50-50 because of that. He has a speed and striking technique advantage over Duncan, who just takes too much damage in every single fight. The smartest move here, probably, is another pass, but we'll take a risk by betting McKinney winning in round 1 at 3.20.

Prediction: McKinney knocks Duncan out in round 1. Or he dies trying.

Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva prediction

The only women's fight on the card, and this might not be a boring one. It's grappler against striker once again, and we will go with Barber here. She has great takedown defence and will have a significant striking advantage over Silva. Barber could even find a late knockout.

However, we can't forget Barber's last "fight" with Erin Blanchfield in May. First, she missed weight, and then, minutes before the walkout, decided to withdraw from the bout completely. While Barber should prevail, something is clearly wrong with her attitude, and the OnlyFans account might be registered very soon. Besides, it's women's MMA. Just pass this one.

Prediction: Maycee Barber by decision if she won't forget to enter the octagon. Another pass for us.

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Farès Ziam prediction

Another contender for the Fight of the Night bonus. Sadykhov has four victories and a draw in the UFC, receiving the 50K bonus four times, and his fights are never dull. Ziam has a bit more experience in the promotion, but this one is quite evenly matched.

Ziam will have a 6-inch reach advantage, while his grappling should be slightly better as well. We expect a bloody striking affair, and this fight should go the distance, as both athletes are very durable and hard to finish. MightyTips recommends avoiding betting the winner, but over 2.5 rounds at 1.47 looks like a solid parlay piece if you do make those types of bets.

Prediction: Gun to the head, Sadykhov wins a split decision.

UFC 323 early prelims predictions

Marvin Vettori vs. Bruno Ferreira prediction

Vettori, who lost by decision to Israel Adesanya for the UFC middleweight championship in 2021, has four defeats in his last five fights. Moreover, he looked a shadow of himself in the previous two bouts against Roman Dolidze and Brendan Allen. He'll be outside the rankings if he loses again, giving his number to Ferreira.


The Brazilian, known for powerful punches, has won his last two fights by armbars. He is clearly on the rise, and his highlight victory is the knockout of Gregory Rodrigues. Vettori is the favourite, which is a bit strange to us. He has a chin made of steel, but the damage was always adding up, and this might be the time of his first knockout loss. It's dog or pass here, and we go with Ferreira getting his hand raised.

Prediction: Bruno Ferreira by a 30-27 decision, but the knockout late in the fight is very possible.

Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner prediction

We have a guy returning from retirement in Turner, and that is always a huge red flag. Yet he is very good, both striking and on the ground, and he'll have a big anthropometric advantage over the veteran Edson Barboza.

The latter took plenty of damage during his 37-fight career, and this should end as a fifth knockout loss for him. Turner will stop the takedowns, if there are any, and on the feet, we just can't see Barboza surviving until the scoring cards. It's the Tarantula winning by KO/TKO here.

Prediction: Jalin Turner knocks Barboza out in the first half of the fight.

Iwo Baraniewski vs. İbo Aslan prediction

Iwo against İbo in the second fight of the early prelims, be careful not to get confused. Baraniewski is a UFC debutant with only six fights in his professional career. The Pole earned his contract by a knockout in 20 seconds at Dana White's Contender Series.

Aslan, the underdog, has much more experience. He started his UFC career with two wins, but lost his last two fights. There are too many uncertainties in this one, and we all know how UFC debutants might do when they are the favourites. Just remember Malcolm Wellmaker's performance at UFC 322. If you must bet on this fight, which we doubt, go with the dog. Pass is the choice for us.

Prediction: Aslan gets back in the winning column, let's say by a knockout. We pass this one.

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trócoli prediction

Abdul-Malik, the biggest favourite on the card, faces Trócoli, who shouldn't be in the UFC. This fight was initially scheduled for February, when Trócoli withdrew for medical reasons. We aren't writing a novel on this bout - if the Brazilian won't withdraw again, there will be a vicious knockout, likely in the first round. The odds aren't great, but this should work in your parlay.

Prediction: Mansur Abdul-Malik gets a highlight reel knockout.

Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos prediction

The featherweights kick off the event with this exciting pairing. Naimov, known for the win over Nathaniel Wood, brings a balanced skill set, featuring respectable punching power and dependable grappling. Santos, on the other hand, is a sharp stand-up fighter with solid takedown resistance.

We are leaning towards Santos in this one, as his striking is more polished, and his defensive wrestling should allow him to keep the fight standing.

Prediction: Mairon Santos by a 29-28 decision.

FAQ

? When is UFC 323?

UFC 323 takes place on December 6, 2025. The prelims start at 0:00 CET on December 7, and the main card is scheduled to begin at 04:00 CET.

? Where will UFC 323 be held?

T-Mobile Arena in Nevada hosts the event. This stadium was the place for UFC 320 on October 4, when Alex Pereira knocked out Magomed Ankalaev in the main event.

? Who is fighting in UFC 323?

Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan headline the event, as they have a rematch for the bantamweight championship. Alexandre Pantoja defends his flyweight title against Joshua Van, and other big names of the card include Brandon Moreno, Jan Błachowicz, Henry Cejudo, Manuel Torres, Marvin Vettori, and Jalin Turner.

? How accurate are your UFC 323 predictions?

We provide in-depth breakdowns and put in the hard work to bring you high-quality UFC predictions. While no outcome in professional sports is ever certain, the majority of our selections prove to be on point.

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Deniss Novickis

Deniss Novickis

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Review Author

Deniss Novickis

Deniss Novickis

I’ve been a keen sports fan since childhood, and the World Cup 1994 in the United States is probably the first big competition I remember in detail. Who can forget a five-goal match by Oleg Salenko that didn't mean a thing?! I’ve worked in UEFA for 15 years, so I no longer watch football nowadays. My favourite sports are American football, baseball, darts, and snooker, and I know everything about the UFC.