Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker Prediction and Odds for UFC Qatar

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: November 20, 2025

UFC heads to Qatar for the very first time, where Arman Tsarukyan will fight in the main event against Dan Hooker on 22 November at the Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena. The bout, which is basically a title eliminator, will determine who will get a shot against Illia Topuria for the lightweight championship belt.

In this Hooker vs Tsarukyan prediction, we at MightyTips analyse both fighters' form, their recent matchups, and provide you with odds and betting tips for this fight.

Tsarukyan enters as the clear favourite at 1.18. Hooker sits at 5.00, offering big underdog value after cashing twice in similar spots recently. Bookies lean strongly toward a Tsarukyan KO/TKO or decision win, while Hooker's knockout prices highlight that he's unlikely but absolutely capable of flipping a fight.

Tsarukyan enters this matchup as the smaller but more compact athlete, with an advantage in speed, balance, and scrambling efficiency. Hooker, meanwhile, brings the trademark length that has defined much of his success, standing five inches taller with a notable reach edge.

Tsarukyan's last appearance was that razor-close win over Charles Oliveira at UFC 300, which granted him a title shot against Islam Makhachev. However, he withdrew just 24 hours before the fight, claiming he had picked up a back injury while cutting weight. Now, he has to work his way back up to fight for the gold again. This is what this matchup is all about.

Tsarukyan is an elite wrestler with explosive power whose timing is perfect. He scored 7 takedowns in the fight against Damir Ismagulov and survived Oliveira's submission chain, which takes a lot of composure. Over the years, his striking has improved too, making him feel more comfortable exchanging on the feet. We saw it in the brutal 64-second knockout of Beneil Dariush and his willingness to trade with Oliveira. The talent is all there. The only unknown is whether eighteen months out of the cage will show.

Arman Tsarukyan enjoying a light meal just 3 weeks out from his fight at #UFCQatar ☠️ pic.twitter.com/XscQI86SFR

— Red Corner MMA (@RedCorner_MMA) November 1, 2025

Tsarukyan's last fights

Hooker comes into this fight after another rough stretch with injuries, most recently a broken hand that forced him out of the Gaethje matchup in March. Still, that scrappy split-decision win over Mateusz Gamrot at UFC 305 reminded everyone he's far from done. This victory adds spice to the matchup because Gamrot is one of the few men to beat Tsarukyan.

Stylistically, Hooker remains a nightmare for anyone not fully dialled in because of his long reach, awkward timing, and ridiculous toughness when fights get messy. He does his best work when he drags opponents into chaotic, phone-booth exchanges. Even if he isn't the fastest guy in the division, he sets traps with level changes and those sneaky step-in knees. This could neutralise Tsarkyan's takedown attempts and make him fight on the feet, where Hooker could have the advantage.

❗️Dan Hooker is very confident he will beat Arman Tsarukyan

“Arman is going to look more like an idiot. He was supposed to be this super freak athlete— And now he’s losing to Dan Hooker, the bloke from New Zealand who’s lost a third of his fights."

via @SkySports pic.twitter.com/p7j9XEYXQJ

— Dovy🔌 (@DovySimuMMA) October 30, 2025

Hooker's last fights

This feels like a Tsarukyan's fight to control. Over five rounds, his speed and chain-wrestling should keep Hooker guessing, even if the early takedown attempts don't land clean. Tsarukyan is brilliant at staying glued to his opponents, and that's exactly the kind of pressure that tends to mute Hooker's long-range weapons. Hooker cashed as an underdog in two straight fights, and if he times a knee or catches Tsarukyan overcommitting, things could flip fast. But over twenty-five minutes, Tsarukyan's cardio and control should earn him a win by decision.

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