Pimblett vs Gathje Odds and Prediction for UFC 324 fight

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: December 18, 2025

UFC 324 lands in Las Vegas on January 24, 2026, with Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett headlining the tournament at T-Mobile Arena. As Ilia Topuria announced he'll be out for a while, the UFC chose to keep the division moving by turning this matchup into a fight for the interim lightweight championship. The winner is guaranteed a shot at Topuria once he returns.

The pairing hardly makes sense, but Gaethje wasn't interested in a non-title bout, while Pimblett remains one of the UFC's biggest PR machines at lightweight. In this article, we break down both fighters' recent form, compare their styles, analyse the odds, and deliver our full Paddy vs Gaethje prediction.

Both lightweights line up quite closely in height and frame. This will be another huge weight cut for Pimblett, who walks around 200-210 lbs outside the training camp. Surprisingly, he's never missed the weight yet. The only physical edge comes in reach, where Paddy has a three-inch advantage over Justin.

Paddy The Baddy is known for his loud mouth, but up to now, he's backed everything up. He is 7-0 in the UFC and hasn't been dropped once. His latest wins over Tony Ferguson, King Green, and Michael Chandler pushed him to the 5th place in the division. However, let's be honest, Ferguson was already deep into a losing streak, while Green has never been a top-15 staple. Chandler's also having a pretty tough UFC run and is far from the smartest fighter either, but this time, you have to give Paddy credit. He looked better in every aspect of that fight.

Pimblett is always hunting for the finish. His jiu-jitsu is legit, he's great at flipping bad positions on the mat, and once he sees an opening, he goes for the submission. He's also not afraid to charge forward when landing strikes, always adding pressure on the opponent. That said, Gaethje is by far the biggest test of his career, and we haven't seen Paddy fighting someone of that level.

Paddy Pimblett has no ranked wins under the age of 38. pic.twitter.com/QlAu8AZV7g

— W⚔️R 💎POIRIER/GAETHJE🔥 #LocoMafia (🇵🇸) (@PoirierGaethje) November 28, 2025

Pimblett's last fights

The Highlight is one of the most violent fighters the UFC has ever seen. He's won 20 of his fights by TKO/KO and once again shook the world with that stunning head-kick knockout of Dustin Poirier in 2023. His most recent bout was a rematch with Rafael Fiziev, where Gaethje outworked him on the feet and completely shut down Fiziev's rise toward a title shot. It's not the first time he's spoiled the plans of the younger generation, and that experience matters here.

Gaethje's chin is proven, and in a pure striking shootout, he remains extremely dangerous. He knows Paddy won't want to stand and trade for long, so he's already preparing for grappling exchanges. He even joked about trying to submit Pimblett himself. Gaethje's takedown defence is solid, and he knows how to survive under pressure. That's why Justin might become the person to derail the UFC's plans around Paddy.

GAETHJE DROPS FIZIEV WITH THE UPPERCUT 😳

[ #UFC313] pic.twitter.com/IpSnl9iXmh

— UFC (@ufc) March 9, 2025

Gaethje's last fights

Paddy steps into this fight trying to prove he truly belongs among the elite of the lightweight division. For Justin, this feels like a last real shot at gold and a chance to meet Ilia Topuria for the undisputed title. The game plan for Paddy is clear: survive the dangerous early minutes and look for openings to drag Gaethje to the mat. That's where his chances grow. If he decides to stand and trade for extended periods, it's hard to see him outstriking someone as ruthless as Gaethje. Either this will be a slow, grinding fight on the ground, or a full-on firework show if it stays on the feet. We're going against the odds here, backing Gaethje to stop Pimblett and claim the interim lightweight title.

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