Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Odds and Prediction for UFC Fight Night 261

On October 11, Charles Oliveira will be returning to the octagon to face Mateusz Gamrot at UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs Gamrot in Rio De Janeiro. He was scheduled to fight Rafael Fiziev, who withdrew just three weeks ahead of the event due to a knee injury. Gamrot decided to step in on short notice, but that doesn’t change the importance of the bout in the lightweight division.

In our Gamrot vs Oliveira prediction, experts at MightyTips take a closer look at the matchup, examine the odds, and what to expect from these two top-tier fighters.

Oliveira enters UFC Fight Night 261 as a slight underdog to most bookmakers, although the odds remain pretty much even. Gamrot is currently priced at around 1.80, while Charles do Bronxs sits at 2.00. 

Both fighters are evenly matched in size and height, though Charles Oliveira has a 4-inch reach advantage, which could play a crucial role in striking exchanges. Gamrot, who is a year younger, fights from a southpaw stance, which may prevent some of Oliveira's favourite right-hand strikes.

The former lightweight champion combines his elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills with a tall Muay Thai stance, throwing elbows, kicks, and knees extensively. Oliveira always tries to push forward with strong pressure to force mistakes and create openings for submissions. He remains one of the most dangerous fighters on the ground, holding a UFC record for most submission wins at 16. He is the guy who can create fight-ending opportunities from almost any position.

Charles mixes striking and grappling fluidly. However, his aggressive style comes with risk. He's been caught clean in most of his recent fights and can struggle against opponents who manage distance and timing well. Here is where the experienced southpaw, like Gamrot, steps in. The key to Charles' success in this fight is to control range and avoid early takedown pressure.

Charles Oliveira FIGHT WEEK ‼️
pic.twitter.com/paMvM8ba04

— Dovy🔌 (@DovySimuMMA) October 6, 2025

Mateusz Gamrot uses quick level changes and takedowns to wear down his opponents. His takedown entries are among the sharpest in the lightweight division, often followed by heavy top pressure. Gamrot isn't too flashy on his feet, though. He prefers to be more functional, mixing his counters with leg kicks to set up takedowns. Another strong side of Mateusz Gamrot is his cardio and endurance. He knows how to keep the pace deep into the later rounds without slowing down too much.

Despite his wrestling and conditioning, Gamrot's striking often looks predictable and really lacks knockout power. Against Charles Oliveira, he can't rely heavily on takedowns, because it may leave him open for Oliveira's knee strikes or uppercuts. 

he upcoming lightweight bout promises a technical contest between the two top-level grapplers. Oliveira is looking to bounce back from a knockout defeat to Ilia Topuria for the vacant UFC lightweight championship in June, which stole his momentum and raised durability concerns. Meanwhile, Gamrot has remained consistent and active, winning 4 of his last 5 fights. Mateusz seems fresher, having sustained less damage recently. 

Oliveira's explosiveness and submission threats will face Gamrot's control and pacing. This fight could transform into a strategic chess match on the mat. It's important to note the fight is in Oliveira's home country, Brazil, adding extra motivation to win. Additionally, Gamrot is stepping in on three weeks' notice, which may not work in favour of the Polish fighter. We're backing the hometown hero, Charles Oliveira, to come out on top.

We are publishing predictions and tips for various sports events daily in our Telegram channel. Join us so you don't miss any part of the action!