Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 Prediction and Odds for UFC 323 fight

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: December 3, 2025

UFC 323 will be the last PPV of 2025, with Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili scheduled for a rematch in the main event. This time, it's for the belt. The two bantamweights will meet on December 6 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Their first fight in 2023 ended with Merab winning confidently by decision.

Now, the Georgian is ready to set a new UFC record with a potential fourth title defence in a year. On the other side, Yan is back in the win column after a string of setbacks and will try to recapture the title he once had. In this Merab vs Yan prediction, we look at the fighters' form, analyse the odds and provide you with our prediction for the fight.

Dvalishvili is a huge favourite ahead of the rematch, sitting at 1.22. The bookies see his victory by decision as the most likely outcome, at 1.40. The odds on Yan winning are 4.50, so the sportsbooks basically tell us they'll eat their hats if this somehow happens.

On paper, Merab is slightly smaller, standing 5'6" with a 68-inch reach. In reality, the difference is minimal. Stylistically, Merab's orthodox pressure contrasts with Yan's switch stance. It will be a clash between volume wrestling and adaptive boxing.

Merab Dvalishvili - fighter analysis

Dvalishvili really is The Machine in every sense. Fourteen wins in a row, three title defences already this year, now heading into fourth. He's on the verge of putting together one of the greatest championship runs the UFC has ever seen. Outside the cage, he lives almost as wild as he fights, jumping into frozen lakes, getting hit by a horse, and climbing a mountain. On top of that, he's constantly training and always in shape.

Inside the Octagon, it isn't always pretty. Twelve of those 14 wins have come by decision, with his style built around constant cage clinches and relentless wrestling to rack up control time. Nevertheless, his cardio and endurance are ridiculous. This allows him to shoot takedowns nonstop. He actually holds the UFC record for the most takedowns ever. Merab wears opponents out through pressure, clinch knees and spinning attacks in open space. He outworked champions like Petr Yan, José Aldo, Henry Cejudo, and Sean O'Malley, building a very impressive resume over the last couple of years.

Merab counters Petr Yan's single leg with a sumi gaeshi

It's so cool that he uses his judo more now pic.twitter.com/QRCxDG6nbM

— William - Open Note Grappling 📝 (@OpenNoteGrapple) November 30, 2025

Dvalishvili's last fights

Yan was a huge bantamweight prospect, tearing through veterans like Urijah Faber and José Aldo to capture the title. However, everything flipped the night he landed that illegal knee on Aljamain Sterling. Losing the belt that way knocked him off balance, and the results that followed didn't help. A win over Cory Sandhagen kept him afloat, but he lost to Sterling in a rematch, then came a highly debated split decision loss to O'Malley, and finally a defeat from Dvalishvili. Since 2024, he has been slowly climbing back up. Beating Song Yadong while injured, outclassing Deiveson Figueiredo, and then handling Marcus McGghee have put him on a three-fight winning streak. Petr showed flashes of the old No Mercy.

What still makes Yan dangerous is his striking IQ. His clean boxing, stance switches and sharp counters can frustrate Merab if he finds his timing early. However, he doesn't rush into the fights, but calculates strikes and adjusts tactics during the first few rounds. It will be a hard thing to do against Merab, who puts you under enormous pressure from the very beginning.

Petr yan pic.twitter.com/UcKra8quCR

— arşiv dpmindset (@dpmindsetarsiv) November 23, 2025

Yan's last fights

Merab has been busy this year, and maybe Yan is hoping all that mileage finally shows on fight night. But so far, The Machine just doesn't slow down. A week out, he looks fresh, sharp and in phenomenal shape. This is a rough matchup for Yan. Most likely, he won't be able to showcase his boxing skills, as Merab puts pressure early. Instead, Petr will spend most of the fight reacting to constant level changes, trying to stuff takedowns. With that dynamic, we predict Merab to win by decision.

Become a member of our free Telegram channel, where MightyTips posts daily predictions and betting tips on football, basketball, tennis, snooker and much more!