Belal Muhammad vs Ian Garry Prediction and Odds for UFC fight

Ian Machado Garry and Belal Muhammad square off in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night 265 on November 22. Both fighters are chasing a statement win to move closer to a welterweight title shot. This is also the first time the UFC will take place in Qatar, making it a historic card for the promotion. 

In this Belal vs Garry prediction, our experts break down the fighters' styles, recent form, and betting odds to help you decide where the best value lies ahead of this matchup.

According to bookies, Garry enters UFC Fight Night in ABHA Arena as the clear favourite at 1.57, while Belal sits as the underdog at 2.50. A bit disrespectful to the former champion, isn't it?

Both fighters share an orthodox stance, but Garry holds a five-inch height and 2-inch reach advantage over Belal. The 27-year-old Irishman is also ten years younger, which could translate to greater speed and endurance. Still, Muhammad's experience and durability across 29 professional bouts give him an edge in composure and fight IQ.

Ian Machado Garry continues to develop into one of the welterweight division's most composed and technically gifted strikers. The Irishman built his reputation on precision and distance control. His only setback was against Shavkat Rakhmonov. However, he became the first fighter to take the Kazakh to full distance after Rakhmonov had finished all his previous opponents.

Some say Garry lacks knockout power because his last five fights have all gone to the decision. Yet, he does have tools to score TKO/KO victories, as shown by his memorable head-kick knockout against Daniel Rodriguez. With that said, Garry chooses a more calculated, point-fighting style, rather than chasing a highlight finish.

Ian Garry says his fight against Belal Muhammad will NOT go to decision 😳 #UFCQatar pic.twitter.com/S4ulex2NrX

— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) October 13, 2025

Belal Muhammad is an experienced welterweight with a well-rounded technique built on sharp striking and dominant wrestling control. His Mexican boxing style helps him set the pace of the fight and smoothly transition into takedowns, allowing him to outwork opponents over three or five rounds.

Belal is overly cautious and heavily relies on earning points. Most of his bouts are considered boring, but still, you can't deny that the guy uses high-level strategy and reads opponents very well. His recent fight against Jack Della Maddalena ended in defeat. The Australian exposed some of Belal's limitations in adapting under pressure, and although his durability remains impressive, that loss could mark the beginning of a gradual decline due to his age.

👀 Belal Muhammad requested his fight with Ian Machado Garry to be 5 rounds, but says Ian "wouldn't take it unless it was 3".

Do you think five rounds would favor Belal? pic.twitter.com/QRPq1hshe7

— Home of Fight (@Home_of_Fight) October 15, 2025

Machado is steadily climbing towards the top of the welterweight division, showing his maturity and control in every fight. Belal might be slowly getting past his physical prime, but he still brings elite wrestling and grappling that make him a tough test for any contender. Both fighters tend to go the distance, and after struggling in the stand-up against Della Maddalena, Belal is likely to return to his wrestling roots against Garry. The Irishman will look to time counters and keep the fight on the feet, but Belal's experience and cage control could neutralise that plan. We predict Belal Muhammad to win the fight, and for a higher value, Belal via decision looks like a more valuable choice.

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