Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Odds and Prediction for UFC 322 fight

UFC 322 in Madison Square Garden has one of the best fight cards of the year for mixed martial arts fans. It has two championship bouts, but the featured fight is no less intriguing. The former welterweight title holder Leon Edwards, on a two-fight losing streak, will clash with knockout artist Carlos Prates, who's rapidly climbing up the rankings.

Let's check the Prates vs Edwards odds ahead of the battle in New York City on November 15, compare anthropometry and fighting styles, think about how the bout will unfold, and make a prediction in the end.

The full lines and any props weren't available when we wrote this article - the bookies accepted only fight outcome bets at the time. The odds on Prates winning were 1.56 at Planbet, the best price we could find among all bookmakers. The former champion is an underdog this time, as odds on Edwards to win start from 2.37. The bookies provide all betting markets during the fight week nowadays, so make sure to check those in the middle of November if you want to bet on the method of victory or any fighter props.

Edwards is the former champion, but Prates has a bit more experience, albeit outside the UFC. The Brazilian is two years younger and one inch taller than his opponent. He will have a 4-inch reach advantage, which is a significant advantage. Last thing to mention here, both athletes fight from a southpaw stance, and that makes the bout even more exciting.

Edwards is a fairly versatile mixed martial artist whose foundation lies in exceptional striking and decent grappling. He uses precise jabs, leg kicks, and a vicious left high kick from range, often switching stances to create angles. Strategically minded, Edwards reads opponents well, adapts during fights, and thrives on counterattacks. Being one of the most boring fighters on the roster, Rocky outdances his opponents to get the win.

Having said that, his last two fights didn't go according to plan. Against Belal Muhammad, Edwards was too passive, and he was clearly outgrappled and arguably outstriked as a result. The last bout against Sean Brady went even worse. Brady pressed forward constantly and, at some point, broke Edwards mentally. The latter even went for a takedown, which underlined his impotence.

Relive the moment @Leon_EdwardsMMA delivered a devastating headshot knockout that dethroned Kamaru Usman at UFC 278 👊

Presented by [@aireslifetune], protect yourself against EMFs. Protect Yourself at all Times. pic.twitter.com/ogHspuGPkr

— UFC (@ufc) July 26, 2024

To beat Prates, Edwards must control the striking distance and avoid blasting exchanges. He must mix in some grappling and employ precise jabs, feints, and leg kicks to disrupt Prates' timing, then counter with his own shots. In a pure striking match, Edwards has the edge thanks to excellent technique, but his power is definitely inferior.

Edwards' last fights

Prates is a lethal, switch-stance striker with explosive finishing ability, as 17 of his 22 MMA victories came by way of KO/TKO. He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but is known for stand-up aggression and piercing combinations. A veteran of 100+ Muay Thai bouts, the Nightmare brings timing and power to the octagon. His accuracy and composure have already drawn comparisons with the legendary Anderson Silva.

The Brazilian has quickly become fans' favourite thanks to spectacular finishes and eccentric behaviour outside the cage. He smokes cigarettes at the press conferences and doesn't make a secret of the fact that he is addicted to alcohol. Being part of the Fighting Nerds added to his hype, although recent setbacks didn't do any good to this Brazilian gym.

Prates must maintain relentless forward pressure and capitalise on his explosive striking to overwhelm Edwards early. His sharp combinations should disrupt Edwards' rhythm and footwork. Securing an early knockdown will do tons of good for Prates, but he has to avoid prolonged grappling exchanges. Even glancing shots from Prates could end the bout, so timing his jab and power strikes will be critical. Maintaining cardio during the entire bout is another key to success.

Carlos Prates is smoking a cigarette at the #UFC319 post-fight press conference 😭pic.twitter.com/HJWDTISZjC

— Championship Rounds (@ChampRDS) August 17, 2025

Prates' last fights

Let's be clear - top-form Edwards should outstrike Prates, and Ian Machado Garry showed how to do it in April. However, Edwards gave up in his last fight, and he knows that a third loss in a row will make him a gatekeeper, rather than a title contender, which will add extra pressure. The signs are not good for the Brit, and while he was never knocked out, even Nate Diaz managed to wobble him. Prates is on the uphill, and he will push forward from the off. He didn't have any problems with cardio in the fight versus Machado Garry, winning the fifth round. While this fight might be close in the end, Prates is the likelier winner. You might want to bet on his win by KO/TKO to add some meat to the bone.