Volkov vs Almeida Prediction and Odds for UFC 321 fight

UFC 321 takes place this weekend in the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, and the main card features a heavyweight bout between Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida. The Brazilian finished his last two opponents, while Drago should've been on a 5-fight winning streak, but was robbed in the last one against Ciryl Gane.

MightyTips looks at the betting odds, analyses the styles of the athletes and their keys to victory, making an Almeida vs Volkov prediction at the very end.

Volkov was a slight favourite at 1.80 when the lines opened up, but now he is a big underdog at 2.62. Odds on Almeida winning lie at 1.53 one day ahead of the fight. Such significant line movement can mean two things: either bookies know something we don't, or people are betting heavily on Almeida to win.

Volkov, who celebrates his 37th birthday a day before the event, is three years older than Almeida. Not surprisingly, he is the more experienced fighter out of the two and, unlike Almeida, has already met all top opponents in the heavyweight division. Drago will have a significant physical advantage here - he is 20 pounds heavier. 5 inches taller, and has a 1-inch reach advantage over his opponent.

Volkov is a technical striker known for his precise kickboxing, excellent distance management, and intelligent use of range. Standing at 6'9", Volkov utilises his long jab, heavy kicks, and punishing body attacks to wear opponents down while avoiding close-range exchanges. Volkov's patience and ability to dictate pace are key parts of his success, as he often frustrates aggressive grapplers and counterstrikes with great effect.

Alexander Volkov’s getting his hair combed in the middle of the fight 😭😭😭 pic.twitter.com/ury2PSHma6

— F.M. (@Furious_Faizal_) June 22, 2024

Against Almeida, his keys to victory are maintaining distance, defending takedowns early, and using his size to control clinch positions. He must punish Almeida's entries with straight punches and knees, forcing the Brazilian to hesitate on level changes. If he can keep the fight standing, his striking volume and cardio advantage should take over as the fight progresses. The longer the bout stays on the feet, the more likely Volkov will dominate and possibly finish Almeida in the later rounds.

Volkov's last fights

Almeida is a powerful and explosive grappler who thrives on relentless pressure and dominant ground control. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he wastes little time standing, instead using quick level changes and chain wrestling to drag opponents to the mat. Once on top, Almeida excels at maintaining control, advancing position, and unleashing heavy ground-and-pound or threatening submissions.

Jailton Almeida returns to take on Alexander Volkov and try and make it 3 wins in a row! 😤#UFC321 | Saturday | LIVE on TNT Sports Box Office pic.twitter.com/0aSWamFlwW

— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) October 21, 2025

Against Volkov, Almeida has to close the distance quickly and avoid extended striking exchanges. He must time his takedowns early, capitalise on Volkov's tall frame, and work from top position before fatigue sets in. Constant pressure and positional dominance will be essential to neutralise the reach and striking power of his opponent. If Almeida can impose his wrestling-heavy game plan and secure multiple takedowns, he has a strong chance to earn a submission or ground stoppage victory.

Almeida's last fights

Jailton Almeida's game plan is no secret - he'll look to secure takedowns and keep the fight on the mat. However, Volkov has shown improvement in that area and will enjoy a clear size advantage, making it tough for Almeida to hold him down. Volkov also boasts proven cardio, whereas Almeida noticeably faded in the second round against Curtis Blaydes. 

When you consider previous opponents of the Brazilian fighter, none have been close to Volkov's level. A week ago, this fight looked evenly matched, but with the current odds, backing Volkov at 2.62 seems like a great value play. We expect him to take charge of the fight somewhere in the second round and find a KO/TKO to secure the title shot.

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