Volkanovski vs Lopes 2: Odds and Prediction for UFC 325 fight

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: January 24, 2026

UFC is heading back to Australia on February 1, with UFC 325 lighting up the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney. The main event delivers a featherweight title rematch between the defending champion Alexander Volkanovski and the division's No.2, Diego Lopes.

The pair first crossed paths last year after Illia Topuria vacated the title. That night, Volkanovski outclassed Lopes and finally reclaimed the belt. Now he's back on home soil and is looking to repeat the success. In this Volkanovski vs Lopes 2 prediction, we break down the odds, fighters' form, and suggest the outcome of this fight.

Volkanovski is an older fighter at 37 and very much in the twilight of his career. The biggest striking difference is height, with Lopes standing a full five inches taller. Beyond that, their measurements are fairly similar.

Alex has been through some rough times over the past couple of years, starting with his first loss to Islam Makhachev in 2023. He bounced back by stopping Yair Rodriguez early via TKO, but then took a huge gamble by accepting a short-notice title rematch with Makhachev. It was not even his weight class. Makhachev was scheduled to fight Charles Olivera in the lightweight division, but the Brazilian got injured. Volkanovski had 10 days to prepare and ultimately lost by knockout. Another brutal KO defeat against Topuria followed.

Heading into the first Lopes fight, many had doubts due to Volkanovski's age and back-to-back stoppages. However, The Great showed a great performance. He did absorb some heavy shots, but controlled the range well, pumped sharp jabs, and wasn't afraid to trade a few times. His cardio and composure still looked elite, with no major drop-off across five rounds.

Last time Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes fought, we got one of the most cinematic shots in UFC history… 😳 pic.twitter.com/4P9Hu2F9HT

— Full Violence ™ (@Full_Violence) January 3, 2026

Volkanovski's last fights

Lopes entered his first fight with Volk riding a solid six-fight winning streak, with great momentum in the division. His only prior UFC loss came against Movsar Evloev, now the No.1 contender in the division. Against Volkanovski, Lopes showed real heart, defending takedowns and constantly pushing forward. However, his defence is a big concern. Lopes absorbs shots far too willingly, often blocking or eating punches rather than moving his head.

After Volk, Lopes beat Jean Silva, handing him his first UFC loss. While the spinning back elbow finish was spectacular, it wasn't without a little luck. Lopes struggled badly in round two and again relied on his chin. Overall, it didn't look like a major step forward since the title fight. He must prepare a different game plan for the rematch if he wants to win the title.

Diego Lopes locking in submissions in training for the Alexander Volkanovski rematch 🔒🥋 pic.twitter.com/0MpPE7PRae

— Red Corner MMA (@RedCorner_MMA) December 25, 2025

Lopes' last fights

While Volkanovski has a limited number of fights left, this feels like the perfect stage for one more statement. He's fighting in front of his home crowd and already owns a clear win over Lopes. He knows exactly what works here and must avoid prolonged trades and manage the range. He's faster and sharper in combinations. Lopes still has plenty to prove. His durability has been tested repeatedly, and an iron chin won't last forever. The win over Silva didn't answer many questions, especially defensively. If the rematch goes the distance once again, we predict Volkanovski to defend his title.

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