Champions League knockout stage: who will reach the UCL final

By Deniss Novickis | Published: March 9, 2026, 13:45

The UEFA Champions League resumes this week with the first Round of 16 matches, but we want to look at the bigger picture. With the full play-off bracket already known, we’ll analyse the form of the teams to predict who'll play in the final on May 30, 2026, at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest.

The road to Budapest 🏆#UCLdraw pic.twitter.com/xT33xCchgq

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) February 27, 2026

With Arsenal being the heavy favourites to win the Champions League this season, there’s no surprise that they lead the field here, too. The odds to reach the final are only 2.25 for the Gunners, followed by Bayern Munich (3.25) and Barcelona (3.50). The bookies will eat their hats if Galatasaray will play in the deciding match - that can be had at 81.00.

* Champions League odds from 09.03.2026

• PSG vs Chelsea / Galatasaray vs Liverpool
• Real Madrid vs Manchester City / Atalanta vs Bayern Munich

It’s very hard to pick the winner in the PSG - Chelsea clash. Both clubs are capable of great things, however, they really lack stability this season. Whoever prevails here will play against Liverpool in the quarter-finals, and that’s another team still searching for stability.

Given all the problems Real had during this campaign, not least their recent injury crisis, there’s no way they’ll go past such an experienced coach as Pep Guardiola. Bayern Munich are just too good for Atalanta.

In fact, we believe that whoever prevails in the Man City vs Bayern tie, will reach the final after that. Both teams look more convincing than any of their possible opponents in the semis. We’ll opt for Bayern here, as they have a big lead in the Bundesliga and can concentrate on the European campaign.

• Newcastle vs Barcelona / Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham
• Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting / Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal

While it won’t be easy, Barcelona should knock out Newcastle. Atletico Madrid have an easier path to the quarter-finals, as Tottenham, under interim coach Igor Tudor, are just awful. Besides, the Spurs are in the middle of a tough battle to avoid relegation from the Premier League, and that will always be their focus.

Arsenal’s path to the semi-finals looks ideal. The Gunners rarely make a mistake this season, and both Bayer Leverkusen and their possible opponents in the quarter-finals won’t do much against Mikel Arteta’s side. We saw recently in the Copa del Rey how well Atletico can do against Barca. However, Barcelona will make amends in the UCL quarter-finals.

GALLERY: Relive the drama of the 2006 final as Barcelona denied Arsenal a first #UCL crown- https://t.co/eo5AvMrPdb pic.twitter.com/EknvgHGy4k

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) March 16, 2016

The semi-final between Arsenal and Barcelona will be a repeat of the 2026 final, but Arsenal are just too good this season. Watch them reach the UEFA Champions League final twenty years after the previous one!

Last but not least, here are the top ten favourites to win the Champions League this year, along with their odds. The odds of Arsenal winning the UCL are just 3.50, but the capital club was the top contender all season, according to the bookies.

* UCL winner odds from 09.03.2026

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