Fiorentina vs Raków prediction and betting tips, March 12, 2026

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: 12 March, 2026, 08:30

Fiorentina return to Conference League action on Thursday. They face Raków Częstochowa in the first leg of their Round of 16 tie at Stadio Artemio Franchi. The Italian side narrowly avoided elimination in the previous round and will now try to regain control of their European campaign against one of the tournament's most defensively disciplined teams.

While the Viola are struggling domestically and remain close to the Serie A relegation zone, Raków arrive in Florence with momentum after an excellent league-phase performance. The Polish side finished second in the standings and conceded just two goals in six matches, making them one of the toughest defensive units left in the competition. Read this article to find out about the teams' recent form and the best betting angles for this matchup.

Fiorentina survived a major scare in the previous round of the Conference League. The Italian side entered the second leg against Jagiellonia with a comfortable three-goal advantage but allowed the Polish club to erase that lead early in the match. Ultimately, two extra-time goals secured a dramatic 5-4 aggregate victory and kept the Viola's European hopes alive.

However, the team has struggled for consistency this season. Fiorentina finished only 15th in the Conference League league phase and currently sit just one point above the Serie A relegation zone after a 3-0 defeat to Udinese and a goalless draw with Parma last weekend.

Paolo Vanoli is expected to rotate his squad ahead of an important league match next week. Moise Kean remains doubtful with a muscle injury, the same as Manor Solomon and Luca Lezzerini. Croatian defender Marin Pongracic will also miss the first leg through suspension.

Despite their domestic problems, Fiorentina have a strong European knockout record at home. They have scored at least two goals in each of their last six Conference League knockout matches in Florence. "They are a team to be approached with great caution, and we'll need to break out of their initial pressure well", said Vanoli on Wednesday.

Raków have been one of the most impressive teams in this season's Conference League. The Polish side finished second in the league phase with four wins and two draws, securing direct qualification to the Round of 16.

Defensive organisation has been the key to their success. Raków have conceded just two goals in six matches in the competition, giving them one of the best defensive records in the tournament.

Domestically, the club continue to compete near the top of the Ekstraklasa standings. A 2-0 victory over Pogoń Szczecin last weekend moved them to fourth place, only four points behind the league leaders.

Raków are expected to approach the match cautiously. Lamine Diaby-Fadiga has been their most dangerous player in the Conference League with six goals, while Jonatan Braut Brunes leads the team in league scoring this season. The visitors have only one confirmed absentee, with Vladyslav Kochergin still recovering from a knee injury. Jean Carlos Silva is still questionable after picking up an injury in their recent match.

• These teams have never met before in European competition.
• Fiorentina have reached the Conference League final twice in the past three seasons.
• Raków conceded just two goals in six Conference League matches during the league phase.
• Fiorentina have failed to win seven of their last ten matches across all competitions.

Fiorentina will try to use home advantage to take control of the tie, but their current form makes them difficult to trust. The Italian side have struggled to score in recent matches and continue to look vulnerable defensively. Raków rarely allow opponents many clear chances and often prefers a cautious approach in away matches. Our Fiorentina vs Raków prediction is under 2.5 total goals at odds of 1.95.

Another betting angle could be Raków double chance (X2) at 2.05. The Polish side have lost only two of their last twelve matches and could frustrate Fiorentina in Florence.

A slightly riskier option would be both teams to score – No at 1.90. Fiorentina have failed to score in their last two matches. Raków possess one of the best defensive records in the tournament.

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