Bayer Leverkusen vs Villarreal prediction and betting tips January 28, 2026

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: 27 January, 2026

The final matchday of the UCL league phase takes place on 28 January. One of the fixtures we have on the menu is Bayer Leverkusen hosting Villarreal at the BayArena. While the German side still have a realistic chance of staying inside the play-off qualification zone, the situation looks far bleaker for their Spanish opponents.

Villarreal have collected just one point from seven matches, leaving them rooted to the bottom of the standings alongside Kairat Almaty. Unsurprisingly, Bayer opened up as clear favourites at 1.57 for this matchup. Below, we break down what to expect from both teams and share our betting picks for this clash.

Bayer have managed to put together an okay league-phase campaign, with a few clear bumps along the way. After seven matchdays, the German side sit on nine points, built largely on statement victories over Man City and Benfica. However, the last two rounds proved more difficult, with Leverkusen settling for a 2-2 draw versus Newcastle before slipping to a 2-0 away defeat against Olympiacos.

Domestically, they also went through a brief wobble and dropped points in consecutive league matches. They finally got back into the win column on the weekend, prevailing 1-0 against Werder Bremen.

Leverkusen are dealing with a couple of absences. First-choice goalkeeper Mark Flekken remains sidelined through injury, and striker Eliesse Ben Seghir returned from AFCON duty with an ankle problem. He will also miss this fixture. Defensively, Leverkusen have generally been solid, except that 7-2 defeat to PSG. The result heavily distorted their overall numbers to 10 goals scored and 14 conceded in the competition.

Villarreal's league-phase run has been a failure, unfortunately. There's no real way to dress it up. The Yellow Submarine have collected just one point thanks to a draw against Juventus. The rest of the campaign has been defined by missed chances and defensive issues. Even last week, when they opened the scoring at home against Ajax, Villarreal were unable to protect the advantage. They ultimately lost 2-1.

Domestically, the picture looks far brighter. Villarreal are enjoying a strong La Liga season and currently sit fourth in the standings, once again in the Champions League qualification race. However, that progress does nothing to soften the reality of this European run. In the UCL, they have failed to score in four of seven matches, registering just five goals with 15 conceded.

For head coach Marcelino, the only thing to be happy about is that this chapter is almost over. Villarreal travel to Leverkusen with several players sidelined through injury. Defender Santiago Mourino will miss this match too. Apparently, collecting yellow cards is his new hobby.

• These two sides have met four times across European competitions, with Villarreal winning three of those encounters and one match ending in a draw.
• The last time these two teams met was in the 2016 Europa League.
• Villarreal have failed to keep a clean sheet in eight consecutive matches.
• Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.43 goals per match in this Champions League campaign.
• Villarreal, by contrast, are scoring just 0.72 goals per game, one of the lowest attacking returns in the league phase.

Villarreal have no hopes of progressing from this season's league phase, and the task becomes even harder with this closing fixture coming away from home. Still, the team carry some attacking threat and are capable of creating chances.

Bayer Leverkusen have something tangible to play for. They are far more focused on securing a place in the qualification play-offs. The German side have shown a higher overall level throughout the campaign and should look to impose themselves against a team simply seeing out the competition. We predict Leverkusen to cover the -1 Asian handicap.

Another betting angle worth mentioning is Bayer Leverkusen to win & Both Teams to Score at 3.00. Villarreal play aggressive, front-foot football and should create enough chances to find the net at least once.

We will also pick Patrik Schick to score anytime at 2.20, as he scored twice in five Champions League matches and remains Leverkusen's main penalty box threat.

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