Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2025: betting tips and F1 predictions for the race in the UAE

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: December 5, 2025

The 2025 Formula 1 title fight comes down to a showdown in Abu Dhabi. Lando Norris holds a slim advantage, but Max Verstappen is breathing down his neck after winning the last two Grands Prix. This includes Las Vegas, where both McLarens were disqualified and couldn't earn any points. Oscar Piastri remains very much in the hunt too, knowing every position at Yas Marina will matter. In this article, we break down the odds heading into the finale and give our prediction for the race winner.

Yas Marina will be a straight-up title decider. The momentum is clearly with Red Bull after back-to-back wins, and McLaren's confidence might be shaky after that DQ in Las Vegas. All three drivers have strong records here, but the positioning at the starting grid plays a huge role on this track. The pole-sitter has won every Abu Dhabi GP for the past decade. Last year, it was Norris, but Verstappen won 4 years in a row before that.

Qualifying will be hugely important at Yas Marina because overtaking requires either a big pace advantage or a well-timed move with DRS. Rear-tyre wear through the many traction zones can also shake up strategies, especially in the final stint. The weather won't bring any surprises, as conditions are set to be dry, with temperature around 26°C.

The path to a fifth consecutive world title is narrow for Verstappen, but still achievable. He overtook Piastri in the standings and now sits second with a 12-point deficit to the championship leader. He must finish on the podium in Abu Dhabi to stay in contention.

The most realistic route for him is to win the Grand Prix and hope Norris finishes outside the top three. Victory will give Max 25 points, meaning Lando would need at least third place to deny him the crown. If Verstappen finishes second, he needs Norris no higher than eighth and Piastri third or lower. A third-place finish keeps him alive only if Norris fails to score and Piastri finishes outside the top two. In short, Verstappen needs a big result and unintentional help from his rivals.

Whatever happens in Abu Dhabi, Max Verstappen already made the biggest comeback in F1 history. pic.twitter.com/AYAAtPWqCo

— MV33Racing🏎 (@MV33Racing) November 30, 2025

2025 F1 Drivers Championship odds

Bookmakers still lean towards Norris, expecting him to secure a podium in Abu Dhabi. He's priced at 1.33 to win the Championship. Verstappen sits at 3.50, which is a solid value, looking at his current form. Piastri is the outsider at 13.00, needing a near-perfect weekend and major slip-ups from both rivals to snatch the championship.

According to the odds, all three title contenders are expected to be strong podium finishers, with the best price at 1.36 for Piastri. However, Verstappen at 2.25 is the current favourite to win the race, backed by his results at the last few circuits. Norris follows at 3.25, and Piastri is coming third at 4.33

Last weekend, Norris didn't look as sharp as earlier in the season. Now, when things are so tight in the Championship race, Lando will need to put maximum effort into this circuit not to lose the crown. Piastri finished second in Qatar and showed some of his best driving this season, but he doesn't have the same motivation as his rivals for Abu Dhabi. Max has the momentum and the car that looked a step ahead last weekend. That's why we predict Verstappen to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, with Norris steadying himself enough to secure a podium.

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