2025 WNBA Finals – odds and Aces vs Mercury prediction

The WNBA Finals will start on October 3, as the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury will battle it out for the Commissioner's Cup. This will be the first best-of-seven WNBA Finals, as the Aces will host their opponents in the first two matches before travelling to Phoenix for games 3 and 4. Three more games will be scheduled later on, if required.

In this article, we'll check WNBA Finals odds for various betting markets, look at each team's strong and weak sides, examine their path in the playoffs, and try to predict who'll be the next champions after the New York Liberty.

Although the most common long-term bet is naturally on which team will win the Commissioner's Cup, there are several other options available. We'll talk about some of them below, while also providing Women's National Basketball Association odds and thinking about whether there are any value bets available.

WNBA championship odds

The Las Vegas Aces, seeded second, are slight favourites ahead of game 1, as they can be had at 1.72. The fourth-seeded Phoenix Mercury are underdogs at 2.10. We were a bit surprised with the odds, as the Aces should be much bigger favourites in our opinion. They have a home-court advantage in a 2-2-1-1-1 series and also won all four games against Phoenix in the regular season. However, the first three games were decided by six points or less, and Las Vegas blew their opponents away only in their last meeting on August 21, winning by 22 points.

WNBA Finals MVP odds

There are twelve women to choose from when betting on the most valuable player of the Finals. A'ja Wilson, the center of the Las Vegas Aces and 2025 league MVP, is the heavy favourite here at 1.83. If Phoenix becomes champions, the award will likely go to their power forward, Alyssa Thomas, who can be had at 2.55. Have a look at the odds on the top-10 contenders below.

When will the series end?

There's a chance to bet on the exact number of games in the WNBA Finals without choosing the team that'll be victorious in the end. This is a best-of-seven series, so four wins are required to become champions. According to the bookmaker's odds, it will be over after six games. If you are sure it will go down to the deciding match, that can be had at 2.90.

Before we make our WNBA Finals prediction, let's check what the strengths are for each team, where there is room for improvement, and what their keys to success are. We'll also talk about how each team reached the deciding series, as the Las Vegas Aces are dreaming about their third title after triumphs in 2022 and 2023. The Mercury, meanwhile, have a chance of becoming only the fourth franchise with four WNBA titles.

Las Vegas Aces

The league's top-scoring duo, A'Ja Wilson and Jackie Young, combine for an average of 39.9 points per game. In game 5 of the semifinal series against the Indiana Fever, they became the first teammates ever to each score 30+ points in the same game. Wilson dropped 35 and Young added 30 more in a must-win battle. They've helped the Aces claim two previous titles and are hungry for more.

Still, their heroics will always have limits. Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd are just as vital, and their continued contribution will be crucial moving forward. NaLyssa Smith is another player who needs to produce if Las Vegas is to win the championship.

FUN STAT: A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young become the first pair of teammates in WNBA history to each score 30 points in the same playoff game! ✨ pic.twitter.com/8K29us2Tou

— I talk hoops 🏀 (@trendyhoopstars) October 1, 2025

How the Aces got to the final

Las Vegas finished second in the regular season with a 30-14 record. In the first round of the playoffs, they defeated the Seattle Storm in the deciding game. The semifinal clash with the Indiana Fever also went to the wire; however, the Aces managed to win game 5 by nine points in overtime.

Phoenix Mercury

Defence has been the cornerstone of postseason success for Phoenix. The Mercury boast the best defensive rating of the 2025 WNBA playoffs, holding opponents to just 75.9 points per game and a league-low 32 paint points. That sets up an amazing matchup against the Aces, who generate nearly half of their offence (47.5%) in the paint.

Offensively, Phoenix leans on Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper, who combine for 47.3 points per game. The Mercury's 3-point shooting has dipped slightly in the playoffs, but if they rediscover the rhythm, Las Vegas will have problems. Phoenix have the league's highest-scoring bench, and two-time champions Sami Whitcomb and DeWanna Bonner should help the team to win the first championship since 2014.

On to the @WNBA finals, but don't pick us. pic.twitter.com/bPlOZ09dI3

— Phoenix Mercury (@PhoenixMercury) September 30, 2025

How the Mercury got to the final

Winning 27 out of 44 regular season games, Phoenix are the fourth-seeded team. They were paired with the defending champions, the New York Liberty, in the first round, and lost the starting game, only to win the next two. The top-seeded Minnesota Lynx were knocked out next, as teams split the first two matches, but the Mercury won game 3 and produced a stunning 13-point comeback in the fourth quarter of game 4.

WNBA Finals prediction

This series brings an exciting showdown between the offensive firepower of the Las Vegas Aces, favourites according to the WNBA Finals odds, and the defensive strength of the Phoenix Mercury. Las Vegas's duo of Wilson and Young is simply unstoppable at times, while Gray and Lloyd shone in the semis with some clutch play.

Phoenix boasts a very solid defence and the best bench in the league, with bags of experience. The Mercury must improve on 3-point shooting and neutralise their opponents in the paint to be successful. This is a very tough call. It's the defence that wins you championships, but we'll go the other way this time round, predicting that Las Vegas will win it in six.