2026 World Baseball Classic predictions and betting odds

By Deniss Novickis | Published: March 4, 2026, 08:30

The World Baseball Classic is just around the corner, and fans throughout the world can’t wait for the sixth iteration of the tournament to start. It all begins on March 5, with the pool stage matches hosted in three countries: Japan, Puerto Rico, and the United States. All knockout stage games will be played in the USA, with the final scheduled for March 17 at the LoanDepot Park in Miami.

Japan are the defending champions, having beaten the USA 3-2 in the 2023 final. Led by 2023 MVP Shohei Ohtani, they return ready for more. Still, bookmakers see the United States as the heavy favourites. Here, we’ll break down the 2026 World Baseball Classic odds, review each pool of contenders and participating MLB stars, outline the tournament format, and share our predictions.

The United States are the red-hot favourites, as they have a team full of MLB stars which is already compared to the basketball Dream Team which played at the 1992 Summer Olympics in Barcelona. The Americans sit at 1.90, while the defending champions, Japan, are the second favourites at 4.50. The next five contenders are all representing WBSC Americas, with the Dominican Republic the third favourites, at 5.25.

Pool A

This is the most evenly-matched pool of all four. Bookies see Puerto Rico as the favourites at 1.76. Each of the five teams has decent chances to qualify for the quarter-finals, though.

Puerto Rico were knocked out in the quarter-finals in 2023, but reached the final twice in a row before that. Playing at home this time out, they should be the favourites in pool A, but the odds on them winning should be a bit higher in our opinion. Canada and Cuba are quite evenly matched, while Cuba, just behind, can always make a breakthrough, given that baseball is their national sport.

Key players for each team: Nolan Arenado (Puerto Rico), Owen Caissie (Canada), Jose Quintata (Colombia), Alfredo Despaigne (Cuba), Abdiel Mendoza (Panama).

Best bet: Most bookmakers do accept bets on whether a team will qualify for the play-offs. We really like Canada’s chances of going through to the quarter-finals at 2.05. The team is full of players with MLB experience, and their manager, Ernie Whitt, has seen it all, too.

Pool B

If the United States won’t win this group, it will be a major upset. However, betting on them finishing first at 1.13 has no value at all. Mexico are the only other real contenders, as we can’t see the other three teams making real resistance.

With a single title and a final loss last time out, the United States decided to go full throttle into this tournament. It seems that the manager Marc DeRosa has got all the star players he could’ve dreamed of. "People are super excited," first baseman Bryce Harper said in an interview to ESPN. "Everybody watched the Olympics and saw what the women's and men's teams did winning gold. I was glued to the TV for those two, three weeks”.

Key players for each team: Aaron Judge (USA), Randy Arozarena (Mexico), Vinnie Pasquantino (Italy), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Great Britain), Dante Bichette Jr. (Brazil).

Best bet: This pool looks very predictable, and a pass would be the best option if we are talking about long-term betting. However, if we do have to make a bet, the choice would be half a unit on Mexico finishing first at 7.00.

Pool C

Another one-sided pool here. Japan are playing at home, and they shouldn’t have much problem in taking first place. The real question here is which team will qualify for the quarter-finals from the second spot.

The three-time champions will be eager to defend their title, and the pool stage is the perfect scene to understand what they are capable of. While other Asian teams might have potential, Japan are just too strong for them in all parts of the game. “Considering my age, I believe this will be my first and last chance, so I want to make the most of it”, said the 34-year-old Los Angeles Angels pitcher Yusei Kikuchi ahead of his debut in the national team.

Key players for each team: Shohei Ohtani (Japan), Jung Hoo Lee (South Korea), Yu-Min Lin (Chinese Taipei), Travis Bazzana (Australia), Martin Červenka (Czechia).

Best bet: While we can’t doubt Japan finishing first, the Koreans look much more experienced than the other three teams. The players who already proved themselves in Major League Baseball, will surely help South Korea to advance to the play-offs.

Pool D

We have the third and fourth favourites of the tournament in this pool, which will be played in Miami. It appears to be a two-horse race, however, the Netherlands, current European champions, will surely have something to say about that.

Starting with the Dominican Republic, coached by the legendary Albert Pujols, their squad has quality all over. Winning the tournament 13 years ago, they surely can do it again. Venezuela might not have the best pitching, but their field players are of a top class, just like the ones of the Netherlands. We can’t bet on the Dutch winning this pool, but they are surely capable of beating either of the favourites to progress.

Key players for each team: Juan Soto (Dominican Republic), Ronald Acuña Jr. (Venezuela), Xander Bogaerts (Netherlands), Mark Vientos (Nicaragua), Harrison Bader (Israel).

Best bet: While the odds of 1.62 are far from ideal, the Dominican Republic are much stronger than their opponents. If 1.62 is good enough for you, this bet is definitely worth taking a shot. Otherwise, just pass it and focus on the other pools.

The obvious pick here would be the United States, but we believe the odds of 1.90 are not good enough, as there are at least three teams in the tournament who can defeat them in a single game. In the play-offs, the Americans are likely to face Canada and the Dominican Republic on the way to the final.

We like Japanese chances better, considering they sit at 4.50. The Samurai Japan are all about discipline, and they arguably have the best pitching of all teams. It’s pitching that brings your titles, and that’s why we’ll opt for Japan to win their fourth World Baseball Classic.

Shohei Ohtani was putting on a show in front of the Japanese fans during his batting practice session 🤯 pic.twitter.com/nQ1945Smn5

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) February 28, 2026

With the United States being the heavy favourites to win the trophy, there’s no surprise that there are seven American players in the list of the top 10 favourites to become the MVP tournament. Aaron Judge leads the way at 8.50, followed by the iconic leader of Japan, Shohei Ohtani,

The 2026 World Baseball Classic features 20 national teams divided into four pools of five. In the first round, each pool plays a round-robin format, with every team facing the others once. The top two teams from each pool advance to the quarter-finals, beginning a single-elimination bracket.

From the quarter-finals, each game is single elimination, leading to the final. Pool play tiebreakers use head-to-head results and run differential. This format combines group-stage consistency with the excitement of knockout rounds, rewarding team depth and keeping the suspense of elimination baseball.

• Pool stage: 5-11 March
• Quarter-finals: 13 & 14 March
• Semi-finals: 15 & 16 March
• Final: 17 March

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