Mali vs Zambia prediction 22.12.2025 | AFCON

Mali enter the tournament with a solid recent record, winning three of their last five matches across all competitions and recording three clean sheets in the process. In AFCON qualifying, Mali posted a near-perfect campaign, topping their group with 14 points after four wins and two draws, including a 1-1 draw with Mozambique and a 0-0 stalemate against Guinea-Bissau. Their performances in the 2026 World Cup qualification campaign, however, were less convincing, as Mali finished third in Group I, seven points behind group winners Ghana, who eventually secured their place at next summer’s tournament.

According to recent form data, Mali have conceded just one goal in their last five fixtures and boast an unbeaten run in AFCON group-stage matches stretching back multiple tournament cycles. At the 2023 edition, Mali topped their group with five points - defeating South Africa and drawing with Tunisia and Namibia - before exiting in the quarter-finals after a 2-1 extra-time defeat to host nation Côte d’Ivoire.

Belgian head coach Tom Saintfiet benefits from relative squad stability, with several key players featuring regularly in European leagues. Defender Mamadou Fofana has recently been confirmed in the national squad, further strengthening Mali’s defensive depth and organisational structure.

Zambia’s route to Morocco saw them finish top of their qualifying group, highlighted by strong performances against higher-profile opponents such as Ivory Coast. However, their form heading into the tournament has been inconsistent. They have suffered recent international defeats and continue to struggle at AFCON finals, remaining winless in their last ten AFCON tournament matches (eight draws and two losses) and failing to progress beyond the group stage in their last three appearances.

This drop in form is reflected in Zambia’s World Cup qualification campaign, where they failed to mount a serious challenge, collecting just nine points from eight matches and finishing 15 points behind group winners Morocco. Despite their disappointing showing at the most recent AFCON finals in 2023, Zambia came close to advancing as one of the best third-placed teams, finishing third in their group on two points and missing out on the knockout stage by a single point behind DR Congo.

Zambia’s forward line can still pose a threat - historically led by players such as Patson Daka - but recent qualifiers and friendly matches have exposed defensive vulnerabilities, particularly against higher-quality opposition.