Ilves vs Gnistan prediction 04.08.2025 | Veikkausliiga

Last season, Ilves finished second, just two points away from winning the title. This year, they are looking like a title candidate once again, considering they are two points away from the top spot. Recently, they suffered eliminations from the Europa League and Conference League by Shakhtar and AZ Alkmaar, but we strongly believe they showed a lot in those duels, especially at home. At Tammelan Stadion, they managed to draw with Shakhtar and win 4:3 against heavily favored AZ Alkmaar. To be fair, they were overwhelmed away from home, but those matches at their pitch are definitely reasons for optimism, especially in the domestic league against pretty weak competition. 

Looking strictly at Ilves' home games, they were incredible this season, winning 70% of their games and 75% of their league games. So, that on its own is a massive reason to believe in their victory over Gnistan.

Gnistan are underperforming compared to the last season, averaging around 0.2 points per game less. Even more worrisome is the fact that they are only getting worse as the season progresses. Most of their good games happened at the start of the season, and now, they are in a difficult spot, winning just once in the last seven games. Their goal for this season is to avoid playing in the Relegation Group, but we are not optimists considering their negative momentum. 

An additional problem for coach Jussi Leppälahti is the absence of some key players. Besides Marcelo Costa, who is out with a long-term injury, two more players are unavailable due to suspensions. One of their best central defenders and team captain, Jukka Raitala, collected his fourth yellow card and will be unavailable. Moreover, key midfielder Evgeniy Bashkirov received a red card in the previous game vs HJK and will be available. His absence will be a massive factor, considering he started in all 17 games in Veikkausliiga.