Hong Kong vs South Korea prediction 11.07.2025 | EAFF E-1 Football Championship

• Competition: EAFF E-1 Football Championship
• Date: Friday, 11th July, 2025
• Kickoff: 12:00 UK / 13:00 CEST
• Venue: Yongin Citizens Sports Park (Yongin)

On Friday afternoon, Hong Kong and South Korea will face off against each other in the second round of the EAFF Championship. Since the tournament isn't on FIFA's international match calendar, the clubs are not obligated to release their players. As a result, we will see a lot of players from the domestic leagues.

Hong Kong are #153 on the FIFA World Ranking List and a team that almost never reaches major tournaments. They have never reached the World Cup and only had one AFC Asian Cup in 2023, where they lost all three games. In the EAFF tournament, their best placement is fourth, and this year looks like it could be the same. They were dominated in the first round by Japan 6:1 and are now expecting another challenging game against South Korea, which is around Japan's level.

South Korea are among the best Asian national teams. They reached the last 11 World Cups and have already pretty easily qualified for the WC 2026. When it comes to the EAFF Championship, they are a team with the most tiles (five) in nine tournaments. In the first round of this year's tournament, the popular Taeguk Warriors opened with a 3:0 win over China and are massive favorites to win the upcoming game against Hong Kong.

Hong Kong vs South Korea pick: South Korea to win and cover the -2 AH spread

Hong Kong are a team that really struggles to defend against good teams. We saw that in the Japan game, where Japan absolutely dismantled them, winning 6:1. Five of those six goals were in the first half, and they could definitely have scored more if they wanted, but they lowered the intensity in the second half. To be fair, Hong Kong's results haven't been too bad, but they mainly faced poor teams. If we look further back in the WC and the Asian Cup Qualifiers, Hong Kong were terrible against teams like Iran, Uzbekistan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and similar (quality) teams. Also, against those opponents, they lost the matches by two (or more) goals every time.

Meanwhile, South Korea are undefeated in the last 15 games over the competitions while winning on 10 occasions - 67%. Additionally, eight of those wins were by two or more goals, and they mostly played against teams better than Hong Kong. Additionally, South Korea have done even better lately, winning the last three games in June and July vs Iraq, Kuwait, and China, with a combined goal difference of 9:0.

In the h2h games, South Korea dominated, winning all four h2h games in the 21st century while winning by two or more goals every time. Considering all the above, we believe that South Korea should dominate the match from start to finish and win by at least two goals.