Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction 13.01.2026 | Bundesliga
Kick off:
Date:
1
3.54
X
3.78
2
2.13
Contents
- Competition: Bundesliga
- Date: 13th January 2026
- Kick-off: 19:30 UK / 20:30 CET
- Venue: Volksparkstadion
Tuesday night brings a slightly awkward matchup in Hamburg. Bayer Leverkusen arrive needing points to steady their place in the top four, while Hamburger sit down in 13th, already glancing over their shoulder. The gap is 13 points, which sounds decisive. However, home form has a habit of messing with logic, and Merlin Polzin’s side have quietly avoided defeat in their last five league games here. That streak alone explains why the odds look tighter than the table suggests.
vs Head to Head (H2H) stats
-
Hamburger SV
1 : 2
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
-
Bayer Leverkusen
3 : 0
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
-
Hamburger SV
1 : 0
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
-
Bayer Leverkusen
3 : 1
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
-
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 0
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
-
Hamburger SV
0 : 0
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
These two have met 11 times in the Bundesliga since 2013. Leverkusen usually come out on top, winning six of those games and keeping as many clean sheets along the way. Die Rothosen have managed just one win in that entire stretch, with four draws filling the gaps. Goals have been modest. The average sits at 1.90 per game.
Hamburger SV team overview
Hamburger went to Freiburg last weekend hoping to stretch an unbeaten run to six matches. For a while, it looked possible. Die Rothosen scored shortly after the break and seemed settled. Then things slipped. Grifo struck, Igor followed, and the mood changed quickly.
Daniel Elfadli saw red after picking up two yellow cards, which rules him out here. Still, Polzin will lean heavily on one stat that keeps this team afloat.
Fourteen of Hamburger’s 16 league points have been collected at the Volksparkstadion. Away from home, confidence fades. Here, it tends to stick around.
Injuries remain a problem. The list is long and awkward, with Warmed Omari, Yussuf Poulsen, Aboubaka Soumahoro and Emir Sahiti all unavailable.
Last matches of
-
SC Freiburg
2 : 1
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
-
Hamburger SV
1 : 1
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga
-
Hoffenheim
4 : 1
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
-
Hamburger SV
3 : 2
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga
-
Hamburger SV
3 : 4
Holstein Kiel
DFB Pokal
lineup
Goalkeeper
-
1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Defenders
-
13
Guilherme Ramos
-
44
Luka Vušković
-
24
Nicolás Capaldo
Midfielders
-
28
Miro Muheim
-
21
Nicolai Remberg
-
6
Albert Sambi Lokonga
-
18
Bakery Jatta
Forwards
-
7
Jean-Luc Dompé
-
19
Damion Downs
-
20
Fábio Vieira
Bayer Leverkusen team overview
Leverkusen had a chance to build real momentum on Saturday against Stuttgart. Instead, the afternoon unraveled early.
Die Werkself went into the break four goals down, and despite a livelier second half, only pulled one back. It was their heaviest loss since the defeat to Bayern in early November, and Kasper Hjulmand will want a response, fast.
Away form offers some comfort. Five wins from the last six road games is no accident. That run includes a 2-0 win at the Etihad against Man City and a confident 3-1 victory over RB Leipzig. This team travels well.
Tillman and Terrier have three league goals each and are expected to start again, likely alongside Tella. Eliesse Ben Seghir is away at AFCON with Morocco, while Exequiel Palacios remains a fitness doubt.
Last matches of
-
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 4
Stuttgart
Bundesliga
-
RB Leipzig
1 : 3
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
-
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0
FC Koln
Bundesliga
-
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 2
Newcastle United
Champions League
-
Augsburg
2 : 0
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
lineup
Goalkeeper
-
1
Mark Flekken
Defenders
-
4
Jarell Quansah
-
8
Robert Andrich
-
44
Jeanuël Belocian
Midfielders
-
13
Arthur
-
24
Aleix García
-
6
Equi Fernández
-
20
Alejandro Grimaldo
Forwards
-
10
Malik Tillman
-
11
Martin Terrier
-
23
Nathan Tella
Prediction
A narrow away win makes sense here. Die Werkself have won five of their last six away matches, including trips to Leipzig and Manchester City. Hamburger, meanwhile, have lost five of eight league games despite strong home form. Leverkusen have won six of the last eleven H2Hs, and usually keep control in this fixture. A 2–1 scoreline fits.
Three reasons we expect under 3.5 goals in this game
- Only one of the last nine meetings between Hamburger and Leverkusen produced more than two goals.
- Five of Hamburger’s last seven league games finished under 3.5 goals.
- Just two of Leverkusen’s last seven away matches went beyond three goals.
Main prediction -
Under 3.5 goals
Best Odds:
1xBet
1.49
vs standings in Bundesliga
| Regular Season | P | W | D | L |
G - A
|
GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 63 - 12 | +51 | 44 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 29 - 15 | +14 | 33 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 30 - 19 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 34 - 24 | +10 | 29 |
| 5 | VfB Stuttgart | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 29 - 23 | +6 | 29 |
| 6 | TSG Hoffenheim | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 29 - 20 | +9 | 27 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 33 - 33 | 0 | 26 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 27 - 27 | 0 | 23 |
| 9 | FC Union Berlin | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 - 25 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 22 - 24 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 | FC Köln | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 24 - 26 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 - 28 | -10 | 17 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 17 - 27 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | VfL Wolfsburg | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 24 - 36 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | FC Augsburg | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 17 - 32 | -15 | 14 |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 - 26 | -13 | 12 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 - 36 | -21 | 12 |
| 18 | FSV Mainz 05 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15 - 28 | -13 | 9 |