Gremio vs Sao Paulo prediction 16.10.2025 | Serie A
Kick off:
Date:
1
2.94
X
3.12
2
2.62
Contents
- Competition: Serie A
- Date: Thursday, 16th October 2025
- Kickoff: 23:00 UK / 00:00 CEST
- Venue: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)
The international break ended and the clubs are again in our focus. One of the most interesting games in the upcoming clashes in Brazil will be played in Porto Alegre, where Gremio will welcome Sao Paulo. With 11 league rounds left, both teams are fighting for the places in the South American competitions for 2026. Can Sao Paulo win in Porto Alegre and improve chances for the Copa Libertadores? Let's break down the match and find the best betting option.
vs Head to Head (H2H) stats
-
Sao Paulo
2 : 1
Gremio
Serie A
-
Gremio
2 : 1
Sao Paulo
Serie A
-
Sao Paulo
3 : 0
Gremio
Serie A
-
Gremio
2 : 1
Sao Paulo
Serie A
-
Gremio
3 : 0
Sao Paulo
Serie A
-
Sao Paulo
2 : 1
Gremio
Serie A
Sao Paulo are usually better than Gremio as they have won five of the last eight H2H matches, while Gremio won three. Another interesting fact about games between these two teams is that seven of the previous eight encounters ended with three or more goals. In the only H2H match this season, Sao Paulo won 2-1 at home against Gremio.
Gremio team overview
Gremio seems to have another season in which they will end as a mid-table team. The team from Porto Alegre are currently 13th on the table and are in the fight for a place in the Copa Sudamericana. Gremio played solidly in the recent months, as they have lost only two of the last nine matches. In the previous game, Gremio lost 1-0 on the road against Bragantino. The first half was pretty even, but when the guest's Walter Kannemann got a red card, the home side became dominant.
Besides Walter Kannemann, Andre Henrique and Marlon are also suspended for the game against Sao Paulo. Gremio also have huge problems with injuries. For the upcoming round, out are Willian, Mathias Villasanti, Tiago Volpi, Rodrigo Ely, Cristian Olivera, Miguel Monsalve, Joao Pedro, Gustavo Cuellar, Carlos Vinicius, Martin Braithwaite, and Fabian Balbuena.
Last matches of
-
Red Bull Bragantino
1 : 0
Gremio
Serie A
-
Santos FC
1 : 1
Gremio
Serie A
-
Gremio
3 : 1
Vitória
Serie A
-
SC Internacional
2 : 3
Gremio
Serie A
-
Gremio
0 : 1
Mirassol
Serie A
lineup
Goalkeeper
-
12
Gabriel Grando
Defenders
-
53
Gustavo Martins
-
19
Erick Noriega
-
3
Wagner Leonardo
-
25
Lucas Esteves
Midfielders
-
17
Dodi
-
8
Edenilson
-
29
Arthur Melo
Forwards
-
7
Cristian Pavon
-
77
Jardiel
-
16
Alexander Aravena
Sao Paulo team overview
Sao Paulo have another season in which they failed to compete with the best Brazilian teams. Sao Paulo are far from the top of the standings, but are still in contention to secure a place in the Copa Libertadores qualifications. However, Hernan Crespo's team have struggled lately, losing five of the last six matches. In the previous game, they lost 3-2 at home against Palmeiras. The home side probably deserved more, as they ended with xG of 1.87, while the guests had only 1.22, but Sao Paulo left empty-handed again.
Sao Paulo's Pablo Maia got his third yellow card of the season and will not play in Porto Alegre against Gremio. Besides the midfielder, Crespo's team will also be without Andre Silva, Jonathan Calleri, Luan Silva, and Ryan Francisco in the upcoming clash.
Last matches of
-
Sao Paulo
2 : 3
Palmeiras
Serie A
-
LDU Quito
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
Copa Libertadores
-
Sao Paulo
1 : 0
Botafogo
Serie A
-
Cruzeiro
1 : 0
Sao Paulo
Serie A
-
Sao Paulo
2 : 0
Atletico Mineiro
Serie A
lineup
Goalkeeper
-
23
Rafael
Defenders
-
28
Alan Franco
-
35
Sabino
-
5
Robert Arboleda
Midfielders
-
6
Cedric Soares
-
25
Alisson
-
20
Marcos Antonio
-
21
Damian Bobadilla
-
13
Enzo Diaz
Forwards
-
10
Luciano
-
14
Gonzalo Tapia
Prediction
The biggest reason why Gremio have had solid success lately is defense, as they have allowed only eight goals in the last eight matches. On the other hand, Sao Paulo have big problems with the attacking line. Hernan Crespo's team scored only four goals in the previous six games. Although games between Gremio and Sao Paulo are usually high-scoring, the upcoming clash in Porto Alegre should have two or fewer goals. Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals.
4 Reasons why we shouldn't expect more than two goals in thsi match
- Gremio allowed eight goals in the last eight games
- There were two or fewer goals in six of the previous eight Gremio matches
- Sao Paulo scored only four goals in the last six games
- There were two or fewer goals in nine of the previous ten Sao Paulo matches
Main prediction -
Under 2.5 goals
Best Odds:
Megapari
1.54
vs standings in Serie A
| Regular Season | P | W | D | L |
G - A
|
GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 46 - 22 | +24 | 58 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 50 - 13 | +37 | 55 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 40 - 20 | +20 | 52 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 44 - 29 | +15 | 46 |
| 5 | Botafogo | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 37 - 23 | +14 | 43 |
| 6 | Bahia | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 34 - 30 | +4 | 43 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 34 - 33 | +1 | 38 |
| 8 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 31 - 28 | +3 | 38 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33 - 38 | -5 | 36 |
| 10 | Ceará | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 26 - 24 | +2 | 34 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 42 - 41 | +1 | 33 |
| 12 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 29 - 32 | -3 | 33 |
| 13 | Grêmio | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 28 - 33 | -5 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlético Mineiro | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 25 - 30 | -5 | 32 |
| 15 | Internacional | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 - 38 | -6 | 32 |
| 16 | Santos | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 25 - 38 | -13 | 28 |
| 17 | Vitória | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 24 - 42 | -18 | 25 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 26 - 41 | -15 | 24 |
| 19 | Juventude | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 22 - 52 | -30 | 23 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 26 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 20 - 41 | -21 | 16 |