Benfica vs Real Madrid prediction 28.01.2026 | Champions League

Benfica’s recent European record suggests a club that usually finds its way through the group stage. Three qualifications from the last four campaigns is no accident.

This season has been far messier. Six points from seven games leaves little margin for error, and the home record raises an eyebrow. Losses to Qarabag and Leverkusen still sting.

However, form has picked up. Mourinho’s side have won two of their last three European matches, including a controlled 2–0 win over Napoli here.

Moreover, four wins from the last five at the Luz across all competitions suggest the stadium still matters. Vangelis Pavlidis comes in hot after scoring twice against Estrela Amadora, taking his total to 22 for the season.

He should lead the line with Prestianni and Cabral. Rafa Silva is ineligible, while Prestianni, Bah, Soares, Lukebakio and Rios remain sidelined.

Madrid’s push to defend last season’s Champions League never really caught fire, ending at the quarter final stage against Arsenal.

Alonso arrived at the start of this campaign and the early signs were promising, but a rough spell of results a couple of weeks ago brought that chapter to a sudden close.

Álvaro Arbeloa’s first night in charge was, frankly, uncomfortable. A 3–2 Copa del Rey loss to Albacete felt like the sort of result that gets people talking. Since then, however, the reaction has been convincing.

Los Blancos have won three straight games, keeping two clean sheets, and the 6–1 dismantling of Monaco underlined their attacking depth. Mbappé helped himself to another brace there, taking his European tally to 11, and should again lead the line with Mastantuono and Vinícius Júnior.

Defensively, it is less settled. Militão and Alexander-Arnold remain sidelined, while Rüdiger and Mendy are still battling knee and muscle problems.