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Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid prediction 03.12.2025 | La Liga

Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao

Kick off:

Date:

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

1

4.40

X

3.80

2

1.74

  • Competition: La Liga
  • Date: Wednesday, 3rd December, 2025
  • Kickoff: 18:00 UK / 19:00 CET
  • Venue: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

On Wednesday evening, Athletic Bilbao will host the reigning champions, Real Madrid, in the 15th round of La Liga at Estadio San Mamés in Bilbao. Athletic Bilbao are coming to this match after beating Levante 2:0 on the road, while Real Madrid will try to break their three-game (La Liga) winless streak. 

Let's break down the match and find the best possible bet for this La Liga tie.

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Real Madrid

    1 : 0

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  2. Athletic Bilbao

    2 : 1

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  3. Real Madrid

    2 : 0

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  4. Athletic Bilbao

    0 : 2

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  5. Real Madrid

    1 : 1

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  6. Athletic Bilbao

    0 : 2

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

In the previous season, these met twice, with each team winning their home game: Athletic Bilbao 2:1 at Estadio San Mamés and Real Madrid 1:0 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. Looking further back, in the past ten h2h games, Los Blancos won seven times, while the Red and Whites secured two victories.

Regarding the number of goals, only two out of the last ten games ended with three or more goals, while both teams scored on three occasions. 

Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao team overview

Athletic Bilbao came to this season after the best one (in La Liga) in over a decade, finishing fourth and securing the Champions League for the first time since the 2014/15 season. Unfortunately, their performance in the CL this season has been underwhelming as they are in 27th place out of 36 teams. The Red and Whites have underperformed in La Liga as well, winning around 0.4 points per game fewer than last year. Right now, they are in 8th place with 20 points in 14 rounds - four points away from European spots and already 11 away from the CL spots.

After a 2:0 win over Levante, coach Ernesto Valverde spoke to the media. He was happy with a win, saying they controlled the game and had enough goalscoring chances. The coach also said this win gives them a boost in confidence and that they are shifting their focus to the next game against Real Madrid. 

Last matches of Athletic Bilbao

  1. Levante

    0 : 2

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  2. Slavia Praha

    0 : 0

    Athletic Bilbao

    Champions League

  3. FC Barcelona

    4 : 0

    Athletic Bilbao

    La Liga

  4. Athletic Bilbao

    1 : 0

    Real Oviedo

    La Liga

  5. Newcastle United

    2 : 0

    Athletic Bilbao

    Champions League

Athletic Bilbao lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Unai Simón

Defenders

  • 12

    Jesus Areso

  • 3

    Dani Vivian

  • 4

    Aitor Paredes

  • 17

    Yuri Berchiche

Midfielders

  • 30

    Alejandro Rego

  • 18

    Mikel Jauregizar

  • 7

    Álex Berenguer

Forwards

  • 23

    Robert Navarro

  • 11

    Gorka Guruzeta

  • 10

    Nico Williams

Real Madrid

Real Madrid team overview

Real Madrid managed to win the double last season and had an amazing start to this year, winning the first seven games across the competitions. However, they have really struggled recently, winning only against Olympiacos in the past five games. Due to a good start, they have constantly been at the top of the league's table, but eventually dropped to second place after a 1:1 draw in the last game against Girona. Los Blancos are only one point away from the top spot (Barcelona), but they have to change their negative momentum as fast as possible. 

After a 1:1 win against Girona in the previous game, coach Xabi Alonso spoke to the media. He liked how the team reacted after conceding a goal and how they performed in the second half. However, he added they couldn't finish the chances they created, and that eventually their performance wasn't enough for the win. 

Last matches of Real Madrid

  1. Girona

    1 : 1

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  2. Olympiacos Piraeus

    3 : 4

    Real Madrid

    Champions League

  3. Elche

    2 : 2

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  4. Rayo Vallecano

    0 : 0

    Real Madrid

    La Liga

  5. Liverpool

    1 : 0

    Real Madrid

    Champions League

Real Madrid lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Thibaut Courtois

Defenders

  • 12

    Trent Alexander-Arnold

  • 22

    Antonio Rüdiger

  • 3

    Éder Militão

  • 20

    Fran García

Midfielders

  • 14

    Aurélien Tchouaméni

  • 8

    Federico Valverde

  • 5

    Jude Bellingham

Forwards

  • 15

    Arda Güler

  • 10

    Kylian Mbappé

  • 7

    Vinicius Junior

Prediction

Athletic Bilbao have been excellent for this type of bet, with four of the past five across the competitions ending with fewer than three goals. The Basque team had major issues offensively in that period, scoring just three goals - 0.6 per game. Also, at home, in La Liga, Bilbao went under 2.5 goals in five out of seven games - only Celta Vigo, Getafe, and Rayo Vallecano had more (home) games with fewer than three goals in La Liga. 

Real Madrid haven't been great for this type of bet, but still, three of the past five games ended under 2.5 goals. Also, in the h2h duels between them and Bilbao, we often saw low-scoring games. Seven of the previous eight h2h games ended with fewer than three goals.

Considering all the above, we believe that an under 2.5 goals bet is the safest option for this La Liga tie.

4 Reasons why we should see fewer than three goals

  1. Athletic Bilbao scored three goals in the past five games
  2. Athletic Bilbao went under 2.5 goals in nine out of 14 La Liga games
  3. Real Madrid went under 2.5 goals in three of the past five games across the competitions
  4. Seven of the past eight h2h games finished with fewer than three goals

Main prediction Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid

Under 2.5 goals

Updated

clock
winrate

55% winrate

wins

1 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

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Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid standings in La Liga

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 FC Barcelona 14 11 1 2 39 - 16 +23 34
2 Real Madrid 14 10 3 1 29 - 13 +16 33
3 Villarreal 14 10 2 2 29 - 13 +16 32
4 Atlético Madrid 14 9 4 1 27 - 11 +16 31
5 Real Betis 14 6 6 2 22 - 14 +8 24
6 Espanyol 14 7 3 4 18 - 16 +2 24
7 Getafe 14 6 2 6 13 - 15 -2 20
8 Athletic Club 14 6 2 6 14 - 17 -3 20
9 Rayo Vallecano 14 4 5 5 13 - 15 -2 17
10 Real Sociedad 14 4 4 6 19 - 21 -2 16
11 Elche 14 3 7 4 15 - 17 -2 16
12 Celta de Vigo 14 3 7 4 16 - 19 -3 16
13 Sevilla 14 5 1 8 19 - 23 -4 16
14 Deportivo Alavés 14 4 3 7 12 - 15 -3 15
15 Valencia 14 3 5 6 13 - 22 -9 14
16 Mallorca 14 3 4 7 15 - 22 -7 13
17 Osasuna 14 3 3 8 12 - 18 -6 12
18 Girona 14 2 6 6 13 - 26 -13 12
19 Levante 14 2 3 9 16 - 26 -10 9
20 Real Oviedo 14 2 3 9 7 - 22 -15 9

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Athletic Bilbao this season?

The average xG for Athletic Bilbao in La Liga this season is 1.49.

? How much is the average xG for Real Madrid this season?

The average xG for Real Madrid in La Liga this season is 2.28.