Atalanta vs Roma prediction 03.01.2026 | Serie A

Atalanta enter this match with mixed form but a generally positive statistical profile. In their last six matches across all competitions, they have recorded four wins and two losses, representing a notable turnaround in fortunes after going winless for nearly two months in Serie A alone, from late September to late November. Nevertheless, La Dea’s 1-0 loss to Inter during the festive period ended their two-game winning streak in the league and still leaves them 11 points adrift of the Champions League places.

The squad’s offensive threat is led by Gianluca Scamacca, whose heat of scoring and frequency of goal contributions remains a focal point. Atalanta’s home form this season has been somewhat inconsistent, though their strong recent H2H record versus Roma could provide psychological uplift. Injury updates and squad rotation have not suggested major absences, but tactical adjustments under Palladino could influence lineup selection.

Roma head into this fixture on the back of notable results, including a 3-1 victory over Genoa late in December, which lifted them into the top ranks of the Serie A standings. Their recent defensive solidity has been one of the most statistically significant aspects of their campaign: they possess the best defensive record in the league (only 11 goals conceded) and have allowed fewer goals than many rivals in the top half. However, this defensive resilience has not always helped Roma win games or avoid defeats in recent weeks - they have lost three of their last five Serie A outings, although they have conceded only four goals in those three defeats.

Offensively, Roma have faced challenges earlier in the season, with goal creation metrics indicating fewer big chances and a lower conversion rate than league averages. Key attacking contributors such as Matias Soule (5 goals) and Evan Ferguson (2 goals and 2 assists) have provided goals, but the side’s overall scoring rate - averaging around 1.33 goals per game in recent fixtures - suggests a pragmatic approach rather than rampant offensive style.