Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction 03.02.2026 | EFL Cup

Arsenal enter this second leg in strong form, having lost only once in their last 12 matches across all English competitions, including the Premier League, the EFL Cup, and the FA Cup. Their most recent league outing saw Mikel Arteta’s side record a comfortable 4-0 victory over Leeds United at Elland Road, further boosting the Gunners’ push in this season’s title race.

Their attacking output has been particularly efficient: Arsenal scored three times in the first leg and averaged high shot volume, and they continue to generate opportunities through key creators like Mikel Merino and Viktor Gyökeres. Merino, for instance, has been impactful against Chelsea in recent seasons, scoring in his last two meetings with the Blues.

Injury and squad availability remain a factor. Recent sources list William Saliba and Leandro Trossard as doubts due to fitness issues, and Piero Hincapié is unavailable with a groin injury. These absences could test depth in defence and attack, though Arsenal’s rotation and squad quality have allowed them to maintain form across competitions.

Chelsea’s season has been a mix of resilience and inconsistency. Under Liam Rosenior, they have shown comeback tendencies, exemplified by a recent 3-2 win over West Ham, but defensive vulnerabilities have also emerged.

In the first leg of this semi-final, Chelsea registered fewer shots and a much lower xG than Arsenal but still scored twice, with Garnacho’s late double keeping the tie alive. His impact off the bench this cup run has been significant: he has been involved in eight goals in his last five EFL Cup appearances.

Chelsea’s squad faces its own absences and rotations. Moises Caicedo is suspended for the Carabao Cup tie, and fitness doubts surround Cole Palmer and Reece James. Romeo Lavia remains out with a longer-term injury. These availability issues could limit Rosenior’s strategic options and influence how Chelsea manage the tie tactically.