Wales vs South Africa prediction: what to bet on in the match on November 29

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: November 28, 2025

Wales and South Africa are bringing the Autumn Nations Series campaign to a big finish on 29 November. The Springbooks arrive at Principality Stadium in Cardiff without a single loss this autumn, and are looking as strong as world champions should be. Wales have had a much tougher run, battling through some hard games and still trying to build momentum. With the team finally back home, this should be a huge occasion. Here's our detailed preview of the matchup and key betting tips.

There was a period between 2016 and 2018 when Wales genuinely had South Africa's number, putting together an impressive four-match winning streak. However, that feels like a long time ago now. Over their last ten meetings, the Springboks have been in control, winning seven. Their latest clash ended with a dominant 45-12 South African victory in Cardiff almost exactly a year ago.

Wales come into this match with a difficult year behind them. They've managed just two wins in 2025, and both came against Japan. The second victory came during the Autumn Nations Series with the score of 24-23. The result seemed to come down to late luck rather than Wales being in real control. The team suffered heavy defeats to Argentina and New Zealand, both by more than 20 points. Wales currently sit 12th in the world rankings, and are still searching for progress under new manager Steve Tandy, who stepped into the position in July.

🔒 Locked in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

ICYMI - Your Wales 2️⃣3️⃣ to take on South Africa at @principalitysta this Saturday 🔥

🎟 https://t.co/NsWB4wxBz5#CymruAmByth pic.twitter.com/qoxHKk9bTT

— Welsh Rugby Union 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 (@WelshRugbyUnion) November 27, 2025

Wales Injuries & Team News

Because the match sits outside the official international window, 13 English- and French-based players have had to return to their clubs, stripping Wales of several first-choice names, like Dafydd Jenkins and Nicky Smith. Tandy has responded by calling up four uncapped players: James Ratti, Garyn Phillips, Ellis Mee and Evan Lloyd. They're stepping into senior roles earlier than expected. Liam Belcher is out with a neck injury, while Aaron Wainwright is having a hip problem. It's a real test of depth, not ideal for a meeting with the world champions.

South Africa arrive in Cardiff in outstanding form, closing out another dominant year. They recently beat Ireland, one of the few sides capable of troubling them. The performance underlined why they sit at number one in the world rankings. Earlier in the Nations Series, they crushed Japan 61-7. It shows the huge gap between the champions and Wales, who struggled against the same opponent. With their depth and consistency, the Springboks look every bit as intimidating as expected heading into this final test.

More than 11 years after making his #Springboks debut, Cobus Reinach will reach his 50th Test cap in Cardiff on Saturday, as Rassie Erasmus opts for a 7-1 bench to take on Wales - more here: https://t.co/J5Bigk89Qo 💥#ForeverGreenForeverGold pic.twitter.com/sKafIl8mDz

— Springboks (@Springboks) November 27, 2025

South Africa Injuries & Team News

South Africa also enter this match with a trimmed squad, losing several stars for the same reason as Wales. Twelve players have returned to their clubs, including World Rugby Player of the Year Malcolm Marx, RG Snyman, Pieter-Steph du Toit, and Cheslin Kolbe, whose absence removes their most dangerous attacking spark. Still, the Springboks insist this disruption is nothing new, and with 12 wins from 14 tests this season, their depth should keep them firmly in control.

• South Africa come into this match with 12 wins from 14 tests this season.
• Both teams are missing key players for this out-of-window encounter.
• In their last three head-to-head games, the difference in points was at least 28.

Wales are putting out a far weaker squad, and their form has already been shaky this year. It's tough to imagine them keeping up with a powerful South Africa side for long. The Springboks have been winning these head-to-head games by big margins recently. However, with Wales unlikely to contribute many points, we expect a more controlled game overall. Our prediction is total points to stay under 67.5 at 1.90.

Another strong option is South Africa to be ahead by 5.5 points after the first 10 minutes at 1.83, given their fast starts and clear advantage in physicality.

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