Holloway vs Oliveira 2: Odds and Prediction for UFC 326 fight

By Klimentijs Konevs | Published: February 28, 2026, 15:30 PM

The symbolic BMF title is once again on the line as Max Holloway defends it against Charles Oliveira at UFC 326 in Las Vegas. This will be the second meeting between the two. Their first fight came back in 2015, long before Oliveira's famous 11-fight win streak and even before the blond hair era.

That first encounter ended far earlier than anyone expected. The Brazilian picked up a neck injury while attempting a takedown and was forced to concede. Now the rematch makes perfect sense. We're here to analyse both fighters' current form, the betting odds, and deliver our Holloway vs Oliveira 2 prediction.

For now, only the main outcome markets are available for Holloway vs Oliveira 2. The odds are clearly positioning Holloway as the favourite heading into the rematch. Meanwhile, the Brazilian is viewed as a live underdog.

From a physical standpoint, there isn't much separating the two fighters. Holloway is slightly taller at 5'11" compared to Charles Oliveira at 5'10", but the key difference lies in reach. Oliveira holds a significant five-inch advantage, giving him the longer frame despite being marginally shorter.

Holloway is a former featherweight champion who has competed in more than ten championship bouts throughout his UFC career. Every MMA fan knows how good of a boxer he is. Actually, Max holds the UFC records for most significant strikes and total strikes landed.

After losing the trilogy to Alexander Volkanovski, Holloway didn't fade away. He has beaten some big names, including that last-second knockout of Justin Gaethje. He literally pointed to the centre and invited a firefight. Max did suffer his first KO loss to Ilia Topuria two years ago, and it raised questions about his durability. He's not too old, but the damage he takes in every single fight will eventually catch up with him.

Last year, Holloway fought just once, sending Dustin Poirier to a well-deserved retirement. The Blessed remains difficult to tie up on the ground thanks to his underrated jiu-jitsu, but the real strength is still his sharp boxing.

Holloway's last fights

Like his opponent, Oliveira owns several UFC records of his own. Do Bronx holds the all-time records for most submission victories and most total finishes in promotional history. He captured the vacant lightweight title in 2021, but was later stripped after missing weight. With Islam Makhachev rising to the top and later Topuria entering the title picture, Oliveira never managed to reclaim the belt.

On the ground, he remains one of the most lethal submission artists in MMA. His striking has also evolved. He throws with real knockout power. The concern, however, is his chin. Oliveira gets dropped far too often, even if he usually finds a way to recover. In 2025, he got knocked out by Topuria, yet returned just four months later to submit Mateusz Gamrot.

The obvious path here is to take Holloway down and hunt for a finish. But Oliveira's love for dramatic exchanges could tempt him into standing and trading. Another question mark is his quick turnaround. Even if he took little damage last time, whether he's truly 100% remains to be seen.

Oliveira's last fights

Even though Oliveira clearly holds the grappling edge, this doesn't feel like a fight that will play out on the mat for long. Both men thrive in exchanges and rarely shy away from trading shots in the centre. Holloway may look slightly smaller at lightweight, but his speed and sharp boxing give him a real advantage in open space. Oliveira's constant forward pressure creates opportunities, and that's where Holloway's counters can land cleanly.

Even if Oliveira attempts takedowns, Holloway's takedown defence and ability to scramble back to his feet should keep the fight standing. We predict Holloway to win by KO.

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