Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane Odds and Prediction for UFC 321 fight

The Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi is the venue for UFC 321, and the main event features Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane, who'll fight for the UFC heavyweight championship. The Englishman became the undisputed champion in June 2025, albeit without a fight, as the Jon Jones' ducking saga finally came to an end. Now he'll defend his belt against Gane, who has had one fight in the last two years, and a very controversial one.

In this article, MightyTips' pundits look at the Gane vs Aspinall odds, analyse the styles of both fighters and their keys to success, and make a prediction on the outcome.

When writing this article on September 8, 2025, only the lines for the fight outcome were available. The odds on Aspinall to win suggest that he is a heavy favourite, as the bookies don't have any doubts that the champion will defend his title. The odds on Gane winning start from 4.00, so if the Frenchman can somehow surprise the MMA community, this will be one of the biggest upsets of the decade.

Ciryl Gane is three years older than Tom Aspinall, yet he has less experience in mixed martial arts. The Bon Gamin will have a three-inch reach advantage, which is especially impressive because the fighters are of the same height. Both fight out of an orthodox stance, but Gane switches very often, and some even claim that his stance is ambidextrous.

Aspinall stands out with his destructive striking, lightning-fast finishes, and a very high fight IQ. He holds the record for the shortest average fight time (just over two minutes) among active fighters with at least 5 bouts. The Brit is known for a string of first-round knockouts and slick submissions - that's how he won five of his last six fights, with a loss to Curtis Blaydes due to an unlucky knee injury in between. Aspinall brings a rare blend of power, precision, and grappling prowess, being the most versatile fighter in the division.

This will be his second fight in almost two years, but we all know the reason. While Aspinall was eager to be active in his prime, UFC were glazing Jon Jones until the very end and making the Englishman wait for ages. Aspinall claims that Gane declined to fight him at least three times before, and stylistically, this opponent is suitable for him, if there's such a thing in MMA.

To beat Gane, Aspinall should capitalise on speed and offensive versatility. He must avoid Gane's technical striking, push the pace, and get the fight to the mat, where he can either find a submission or finish with ground-and-pound.

Aspinall's last fights

Ciryl Gane has a Muay Thai base, combining technical striking from the outside with constant movement in all possible directions. He has exceptional footwork that allows him to evade power shots while landing counters, a style that has already troubled a few top-tier strikers. His ground game remains a question, though, as we can't forget how easily Jones submitted him.

In his last fight, Gane was gifted a split decision over Alexander Volkov, who clearly took two out of three rounds. Right after the bout, Dana White told Volkov in front of the cameras that he was robbed, promising to remember this when making future events. Yet it's Gane who will fight for the UFC heavyweight championship for the third time since January 2022.

The Frenchman's key to victory is mobility, maintaining distance and avoiding explosive exchanges. Gane claims he has significantly improved his grappling ahead of UFC 321, working with expert coaches to become better on the ground. He must dictate range, stay elusive, and make it a tactical battle. One last thing to note - Aspinall never fought past the second round, and this is a five-round bout. If Gane can take his opponent to deep waters, there might be a chance in the end.

Gane's last fights

Gane shouldn't have been fighting for the belt in the first place, as he was humbled by Jones and had only one legit victory since. He is highly inactive, starring in movies and simply waiting for another title shot. Besides, he is a one-dimensional fighter who is very effective against strikers only. Aspinall is totally different, as he can dictate where the fight will take place. His fighting IQ was never in doubt, and him taking Gane down to the mat is just a matter of time. Unfortunately, there are no lines for the method of victory yet, but simply taking Aspinall to win at 1.25 has value, and this is a decent parlay piece. If predicting a more precise result, Aspinall to win and under 2.5 rounds, or even under 1.5 rounds, should work.