The trap of one's own opinion in sports betting

By Serge Gorelikov | Published: January 12, 2026

In betting, most mistakes are made not because of a lack of information, but rather due to a distorted perception of it. One of the most dangerous cognitive biases is confirmation bias. It lies in a person's tendency to seek out, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms an already formed opinion, while ignoring or devaluing opposing facts. In betting, this trap is especially destructive because every decision is directly tied to money.

Confirmation bias usually arises at the moment when a bettor "falls in love” with an outcome. He sees a match, a line, or a price and immediately forms a hypothesis: "This bet has to win.” From that moment on, analysis stops being objective. Statistics, news, and expert opinions are no longer used to test the hypothesis, but to justify it. If the data support the idea, it seems important. If it contradicts it, it is labelled as noise, randomness, or "irrelevant factors”. For example, after two winning bets at odds of 2.45, I "fell in love” with a wager and ignored clear signs that betting on Angers was a bad idea.

Take a bet on a favourite. The player notices that the team is stronger on paper and playing at home. These facts become anchors. At the same time, the player ignores a congested schedule, rotation, the opponent's motivation, or an inflated price that no longer contains value. As a result, the bet is placed not because there is a mathematical edge, but because the opinion has already been formed.

Confirmation bias is particularly dangerous in live betting. Under time pressure, the brain seeks quick decisions and clings to the first interpretation of what is happening. If a player bets on over goals and sees an active start to the match, every shot is perceived as proof that the bet is correct. Meanwhile, signals pointing in the opposite direction - low tempo, poor finishing, tactical caution - remain outside the focus of attention.

Confirmation bias intensifies after a streak of successful bets. An illusion of control emerges: the player begins to believe that he "reads the game” better than the market. At this point, personal opinion is placed above numbers and models. Any criticism is perceived as a misunderstanding rather than a potential source of error. This is one of the fastest paths to losing your bankroll.

The antidote to confirmation bias is discipline and structured analysis. A professional bettor always asks himself: "Why might this bet lose?” If there is no answer, the analysis is superficial. A useful practice is to deliberately search for arguments against your own idea and evaluate them with the same seriousness as supporting facts. If the counterarguments outweigh the positives, the bet should be cancelled without any regret.

Another tool is strict entry criteria. When a decision is made based on a predefined model, personal opinion moves to the background. The bet either meets the conditions or it doesn't, without emotional adjustments. That is why, in the long run, winners are not those who "feel the match,” but those who know how to doubt their own conclusions.

In betting, the enemy is most often not the bookmaker or randomness, but one's own confidence in being right. The ability to recognise confirmation bias and work against it is a key skill for those who view betting as a job rather than a game.

Serge Gorelikov is a professional bettor and a weekly columnist for MightyTips. In his writing, he breaks down how the betting world operates, from fundamental concepts to advanced strategies. To stay up to date with Serge's latest predictions and betting tips, join our free Telegram channel.