Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club prediction 04.03.2026 | Copa del Rey

Something shifted over the past two months. Sociedad have lost just once in their last 14 matches, and that defeat came against Real Madrid. In the other 13, they won nine. Barcelona beaten. Athletic beaten. Mallorca edged out. Results like that build quiet belief.

At home, they are unbeaten in six and have won three of the last four. The Reale Arena can feel compact and intense on derby nights. Pellegrino Matarazzo recently opted for a 4 4 2, pairing Carlos Soler with Mikel Oyarzabal in the final third. Beñat Turrientes scored the decisive goal in the first leg. Expect h him to keep his place in the XI although Ander Barrenetxea presses for inclusion.

Álvaro Odriozola remains sidelined with a cruciate injury. Otherwise, the squad looks stable. That stability could matter more than flair.

This season has felt slightly underwhelming for Athletic. After finishing fourth and fifth in recent campaigns, expectations rose. Ninth place now feels like a step back. Still, context helps.

Ernesto Valverde’s team have been hard to beat lately. Six unbeaten in their last seven, with the only defeat being the first leg loss to Sociedad. That 1-0 defeat will linger. Derby losses tend to.

Away form offers some encouragement. They are unbeaten in their last three trips, winning twice. Iñaki Williams, who scored in the draw with Rayo, should lead the line again.

His brother remains out with pubalgia. Álex Berenguer, Mikel Jauregizar and Beñat Prados are also unavailable. Athletic rarely collapse. Yet they do not always dominate either.