Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction 01.02.2026 | La Liga

Real Madrid arrive at this fixture in strong league form. They secured a 2-0 away win over Villarreal, with Kylian Mbappé scoring his 21st La Liga goal of the campaign and Vinícius Júnior contributing assists, a performance that keeps them intact with the current league leaders Barcelona in the race for the La Liga title. Madrid’s attacking metrics remain elite: high expected goals, substantial shot volume, and consistent pressure in the final third. 

A successful push for the league title was somewhat hampered midweek, when the 15-time Champions League winners suffered a 4-2 defeat away at Benfica, dropping out of the top eight and meaning Real Madrid will now have to enter the round of 32 instead.

When it comes to injury news, Eder Militao is sidelined for several months with a significant hamstring injury, limiting defensive options and forcing tactical adjustments. While this presents a concern, the squad’s depth and rotation choices early in the season have helped sustain performance levels. Additionally, Madrid’s midfield creativity, particularly with Arda Güler delivering chances and assists at a high rate, gives them a statistical edge in chance creation.

Rayo Vallecano’s recent results in La Liga have been mixed, with performance metrics pointing to defensive resilience but limited offensive output against top opposition. They suffered a 3-1 home defeat to Osasuna in Round 21, their second consecutive league loss, which has hampered their ability to climb the standings. The southeast Madrid side have endured a difficult couple of months, registering just one win since 1 November - equating to a single victory across their last 11 La Liga outings.

Despite these setbacks, Rayo have shown they can frustrate elite teams: their 0-0 draw with Real Madrid in November 2025 was built on compact defence and disciplined organisation, restricting Madrid’s shot conversion even as the visitors dominated possession and shot volume. However, recent away performances highlight vulnerabilities, as they have lost four of their last five away league fixtures.

In terms of injuries, Rayo’s squad has been relatively stable, with few high-profile absences, allowing manager Iñigo Pérez to field his preferred setup consistently.