Real Madrid vs Manchester City prediction 11.03.2026 | Champions League

Real Madrid return to Champions League business after a nervy 2:1 win at Celta Vigo last weekend. Fede Valverde's stoppage-time goal secured an important away win for Alvaro Arbeloa's side. 

Before Saturday's hard-fought victory at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Real had suffered back-to-back La Liga defeats against Osasuna (2:1) and Getafe (0:1). Los Merengues now sit four points behind Barcelona in a keenly-contested race for the Spanish title. 

Uninspiring in their UCL league phase campaign, Real secured a ninth-placed finish, with five wins and three defeats recorded. The Spanish giants eventually secured progress to the knockout phase with a 3:1 aggregate victory in their playoff tie against Benfica last month. 

Goals at both ends can usually be expected when Real are in action in the Champions League. All but one of their last six UCL games finished with both teams on the scoresheet.

Indeed, a high-scoring outcome should be expected in a fixture that rarely fails to deliver in the goal markets. At least three goals were scored in all but two of 12 previous encounters between these sides.

Interim boss Arbeloa has several injury absentees this week. Eduardo Camavinga (dental), Eder Militão (hamstring), Jude Bellingham (hamstring), Dani Ceballos (calf), Kylian Mbappé (knee), David Alaba (calf) and Rodrygo (knee) are expected to miss out again on Wednesday.

Manchester City arrive in Madrid full of confidence after a convincing 3:1 victory against Newcastle in the FA Cup on Saturday. Having fallen behind to an early Harvey Barnes strike, a brace from Omar Marmoush inspired a well-deserved comeback win for Pep Guardiola’s dominant side.

The Citizens have been in excellent form in the past month or so, picking up victories in nine of 11 unbeaten fixtures since a shock defeat against Bodo/Glimt in their penultimate UCL league phase contest.

Pep Guardiola's improving side won each of their last three away fixtures, including a 2:1 comeback win against Liverpool. The English giants also scored a 2:1 win at this venue just three months ago. 

Defensive concerns remain though, with the EPL giants rarely keeping clean sheets, particularly on the road. The Citizens conceded at least one goal in five of their last seven away fixtures, while three of their four most recent matches finished with both teams on the scoresheet.

Head coach Guardiola has just two expected injury absentees for the trip to Madrid. Josko Gvardiol (tibial fracture), Mateo Kovacic (ankle/heel) remain unavailable for selection.