Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid prediction 15.02.2026 | LaLiga

Rayo’s league position reflects a troubled campaign. They have managed only five wins from 22 matches, signalling relegation form, while their defensive record - 30 goals conceded home and away - leaves them vulnerable in transitions and from set pieces. Their recent form shows no signs of improvement in the foreseeable future, with three successive defeats and eight goals conceded across those matches.

At Estadio de Vallecas, Rayo’s home performances have been mixed; while they can draw confidence from a recent isolated win versus Mallorca, their win percentage is low and their inability to string together positive results has seen them stagnate near the drop zone. 

Key offensive contributors include Jorge de Frutos (7 league goals) and Álvaro García, but beyond those primary threats, goal involvement drops sharply.

Atlético’s league campaign has been far more productive, with 13 wins and six draws from 23 matches. Their defensive organisation has been notable: just 18 goals conceded in 23 games (~0.78 per match), reflecting the joint-tightest backline in LaLiga, alongside their bitter city rivals Real Madrid. However, Diego Simeone’s men head into this fixture in less-than-ideal spirits, having fallen short at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano last weekend with a 1-0 defeat to Real Betis.

In cup competition, new signing Ademola Lookman made an immediate impact on debut, scoring and assisting in a 5-0 Copa del Rey victory, demonstrating Atlético’s attacking depth. However, midfielder Pablo Barrios is sidelined with a right-thigh injury, likely missing this fixture and reducing options in a key transitional phase for Simeone’s side.