Qarabag vs Ajax prediction 10.12.2025 | Champions League
Qarabag FK
Kick off:
Date:
Ajax
1
2.14
X
3.90
2
3.44
Contents
- Competition: Champions League
- Date: 10th December 2025
- Kick-off: 17:45 UK / 18:45 CET
- Venue: Tofiq Bahramov Stadium
Ajax will be looking for their first Champions League points of the season when they visit Azerbaijan to face Qarabag on Wednesday evening. The two teams are in starkly different positions, with Qarabag sitting 19th and Ajax at the bottom. While bookmakers are leaning towards Qarabag for the win based on current standings, Ajax has shown in the past that they can put on a strong performance in Europe. Read on for a detailed analysis of both teams, their form, and what we can expect from the match.
Qarabag FK vs Ajax Head to Head (H2H) stats
-
Qarabag FK
0 : 3
Ajax
Europa League
The last time these two teams met was in the Europa League, over a year ago in Azerbaijan, where Ajax comfortably won 3-0. Goals from Kenneth Taylor, Wout Weghorst, and Chuba Akpom secured the victory, but none of them will be playing this time. Taylor and Weghorst are injured, and Akpom is currently on loan at Ipswich Town.
Qarabag team overview
Qarabag are on the verge of winning their fifth consecutive Azerbaijan Premier League title, currently sitting top of the table with 30 points, despite having played one less game.
They’ve been in solid form domestically, with four wins in their last five league games and three clean sheets to show for it. However, their European form has been disappointing, with only one point from their last three fixtures.
That said, the draw against Chelsea at home in that spell will surely provide them with confidence ahead of their meeting with Ajax. Four of their seven points so far this season were also registered at this ground, which is another motivation for the team.
Kady Borges, who’s been out for the past seven games with a muscle injury, is expected to miss this match, but coach Gurban Gurbanov has no suspensions to worry about.
Last matches of Qarabag FK
-
Zira
1 : 1
Qarabag FK
Premier League
-
Qarabag FK
3 : 0
Karvan
Azerbaidjan Cup
-
Qarabag FK
2 : 0
Karvan
Premier League
-
Napoli
2 : 0
Qarabag FK
Champions League
-
Sumqayıt
2 : 4
Qarabag FK
Premier League
Qarabag FK lineup
Goalkeeper
-
99
Mateusz Kochalski
Defenders
-
44
Elvin Cafarguliyev
-
81
Kevin Medina
-
13
Behlul Mustafazade
-
2
Matheus Silva
Midfielders
-
8
Marko Janković
-
10
Abdellah Zoubir
-
35
Pedro Bicalho
Forwards
-
11
Emmanuel Addai
-
17
Camilo Durán
-
15
Leandro Andrade
Ajax team overview
Ajax’s season has been a struggle on all fronts. They’re currently in fourth place in the Eredivisie with just 26 points from 15 games and have yet to earn a single point in the Champions League, sitting bottom of the standings.
Their defense has been their biggest issue, having conceded 16 goals, more than any other team in the competition. However, they’re coming into this match with some momentum, having won their last two games, including a 3-1 comeback victory over Fortuna Sittard last weekend.
The team’s injury list remains lengthy, with Steven Berghuis, Wout Weghorst, Josip Sutalo, and James McConnell all sidelined. Meanwhile, Youri Baas, who was sent off in their last league match, won’t face a European ban.
Last matches of Ajax
-
Fortuna Sittard
1 : 3
Ajax
Eredivisie
-
Ajax
2 : 0
FC Groningen
Eredivisie
-
Ajax
0 : 2
Benfica
Champions League
-
Ajax
1 : 2
Excelsior
Eredivisie
-
Utrecht
2 : 1
Ajax
Eredivisie
Ajax lineup
Goalkeeper
-
1
Vítězslav Jaroš
Defenders
-
5
Owen Wijndal
-
15
Youri Baas
-
30
Aaron Bouwman
-
6
Youri Regeer
Midfielders
-
10
Oscar Gloukh
-
4
Ko Itakura
-
18
Davy Klaassen
Forwards
-
43
Rayane Bounida
-
11
Mika Godts
-
9
Kasper Dolberg
Prediction
I see a 2‑2 draw between Qarabag and Ajax: Qarabag have scored at least twice in each of their last four home games in Europe, while Ajax despite a rough Champions League campaign, have scored five times in their last two matches. Given both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities (especially Ajax conceding 16 in five games) and Qarabag’s habit of finding the net at home, a 2‑2 feels plausible.
Three reasons we expect at least three goals in this game
- Seven of the last ten European games of Ajax ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Five of the last seven European games of Qarabag produced 3+ goals.
- Bets on over5 goals won in four of the last six games of Qarabag.
Main prediction Qarabag FK - Ajax
Over 2.5 goals
Best Odds:
22bet
1.70
Qarabag FK vs Ajax standings in Champions League
| League Stage | P | W | D | L |
G - A
|
GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 - 1 | +13 | 15 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 - 8 | +11 | 12 |
| 3 | FC Bayern München | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 - 6 | +9 | 12 |
| 4 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 - 3 | +9 | 12 |
| 5 | Real Madrid | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 - 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 6 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 - 11 | +6 | 10 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 - 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporting CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 - 5 | +6 | 10 |
| 9 | Manchester City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 - 5 | +5 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 - 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 - 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 12 | Atlético Madrid | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 - 10 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 - 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 14 | Galatasaray | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 - 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 15 | PSV | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 - 8 | +5 | 8 |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 - 7 | +3 | 8 |
| 17 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 - 10 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Barcelona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 - 10 | +2 | 7 |
| 19 | Qarabağ | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 - 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 20 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 - 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 21 | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 - 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 22 | Juventus | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 - 10 | 0 | 6 |
| 23 | Monaco | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 - 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 24 | Pafos FC | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 - 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 25 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 - 12 | -7 | 6 |
| 26 | Club Brugge | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 - 13 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 | Athletic Club | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 - 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 28 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 - 14 | -7 | 4 |
| 29 | FC København | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 - 14 | -7 | 4 |
| 30 | Benfica | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 - 8 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 | Slavia Praha | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 - 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 32 | Bodø / Glimt | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 - 11 | -4 | 2 |
| 33 | Olympiacos F.C. | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 - 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 34 | Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 - 10 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 | Kairat | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 - 14 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | Ajax | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 - 16 | -15 | 0 |