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Marseille vs Lyon prediction 01.03.2026 | Ligue 1

Marseille

Marseille

Kick off:

Date:

Lyon

Lyon

1

2.01

X

3.85

2

3.88

  • Competition: Ligue 1
  • Date: Sunday, 1st March, 2026
  • Kickoff: 19:45 UK / 20:45 CET
  • Venue: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

On Sunday evening, two teams trying to secure Champions League next season, Marseille and Lyon, will face off against each other in the French top-flight division. Marseille are coming into the game after a 2:0 loss to Brest, continuing their poor run of results over the last month. Meanwhile, Lyon lost 3:1 to Strasbourg, snapping their 13-game winning streak across competitions.

 Let's break down the game and find the best possible bet for this Ligue 1 tie.

Marseille vs Lyon Head to Head (H2H) stats

  1. Lyon

    1 : 0

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

  2. Marseille

    3 : 2

    Lyon

    Ligue 1

  3. Lyon

    2 : 3

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

  4. Lyon

    1 : 0

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

  5. Marseille

    3 : 0

    Lyon

    Ligue 1

  6. Lyon

    1 : 2

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

In the first H2H game this season, Lyon won 1:0, with Marseille receiving a red card in the 29th minute. Looking over the past ten H2H games, Marseille won five times, and Lyon secured four. 

Regarding the number of goals, we saw three or more goals in six of the past ten H2H games, while both teams scored in five of the past ten. 

Marseille

Marseille team overview

Marseille had a solid start to the season, even spending some time at the top spot. However, in 2026, the Olympians were atrocious, dropping to 4th place. They won 40 points from 23 rounds and failed to reach the Champions League knockout phase after losing the last two games in the league phase. Pretty much their only good performance was in the Cup. There, they reached the quarter-finals and will face Toulouse just a few days after the Lyon match. 

That bad period over the past month eventually led to coach De Zerbi leaving the club by mutual consent. The Olympians appointed former Red Star and Rennes manager Habib Beye on 18th February. Unfortunately, Marseille lost its first game under the new head coach (2:0 against Brest). After the loss, the coach spoke to the media and said they lacked intensity, especially in the first half. He added that the penalty miss has changed the game's momentum. 

Last matches of Marseille

  1. Brest

    2 : 0

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

  2. Marseille

    2 : 2

    Strasbourg

    Ligue 1

  3. PSG

    5 : 0

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

  4. Marseille

    3 : 0

    Rennes

    Coupe de France

  5. Paris FC

    2 : 2

    Marseille

    Ligue 1

Marseille lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Gerónimo Rulli

Defenders

  • 22

    Timothy Weah

  • 28

    Benjamin Pavard

  • 21

    Nayef Aguerd

  • 33

    Emerson

Midfielders

  • 18

    Arthur Vermeeren

  • 23

    Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

  • 27

    Quinten Timber

Forwards

  • 10

    Mason Greenwood

  • 9

    Amine Gouiri

  • 14

    Igor Paixão

Lyon

Lyon team overview

Lyon were on the verge of relegation from Ligue 1 due to financial problems, and no one really expected them to have a great season after those problems. However, Les Gones surprised most football pundits as they are undoubtedly playing their best season in the last six years. They are in 3rd place with 45 points in 23 rounds, reached the Europa League 1/8 Finals, and the Coupe de France quarter finals. Just like Marseille, Lyon will also have a cup game after this match, but it will be a lot tougher, as they will face Lens. 

After a 3:1 in the previous game against Strasbourg, coach Paulo Fonseca spoke to the media. He said their winning streak had to come to an end sooner or later and that there isn't any drama and they just have to accept it. The coach criticised the team as a whole after the match, saying he would speak with the team to better understand what happened. 

Last matches of Lyon

  1. Strasbourg

    3 : 1

    Lyon

    Ligue 1

  2. Lyon

    2 : 0

    OGC Nice

    Ligue 1

  3. Nantes

    0 : 1

    Lyon

    Ligue 1

  4. Lyon

    2 : 0

    Laval

    Coupe de France

  5. Lyon

    1 : 0

    Lille

    Ligue 1

Lyon lineup

Goalkeeper

  • 1

    Dominik Greif

Defenders

  • 98

    Ainsley Maitland-Niles

  • 22

    Clinton Mata

  • 19

    Moussa Niakhaté

  • 21

    Ruben Kluivert

Midfielders

  • 6

    Tanner Tessmann

  • 23

    Tyler Morton

  • 8

    Corentin Tolisso

  • 16

    Abner

Forwards

  • 9

    Endrick

  • 10

    Pavel Sulc

Prediction

Marseille are in terrible form, having won only once in the past six games. They have had massive defensive problems, allowing a total of 14 goals - 2.33 per game. Those defensive struggles continued after a coaching change, as they lost 2:0 to Brest, and we doubt they can turn it around against one of the hottest teams in France. 

Lyon lost their last game 3:1 to Strasbourg. However, that is only one loss after 13 straight wins across competitions, so we can give them a pass on it. Moreover, on the road, Les Gones lost only five of 17 games across competitions - 29%. 

Moreover, Lyon won the previous H2H game 1:0. Considering all the above, we believe Lyon would secure at least one point in this Ligue 1 tie. 

3 Reasons why Lyon should win or draw

  1. Marseille won once in the past six games
  2. Lyon won 13 of the past 14 games
  3. Lyon won the previous H2H game 1:0

Main prediction Marseille - Lyon

Lyon win or draw (X2)

Updated

clock
winrate

53% winrate

wins

3 wins in a row

Nikola has been betting for 10+ years and in the last couple of years he really improved his skills and made a lot of profit. He focuses mostly on football and basketball.

Best Odds:

22bet

1.89

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Marseille vs Lyon standings in Ligue 1

Regular Season P W D L
G - A
GD Pts
1 Paris Saint Germain 23 17 3 3 52 - 19 +33 54
2 Lens 24 17 2 5 45 - 21 +24 53
3 Olympique Lyonnais 23 14 3 6 37 - 23 +14 45
4 Olympique Marseille 23 12 4 7 48 - 31 +17 40
5 LOSC Lille 23 11 4 8 36 - 31 +5 37
6 Rennes 23 10 7 6 37 - 35 +2 37
7 Strasbourg 24 10 5 9 40 - 31 +9 35
8 Monaco 23 10 4 9 38 - 36 +2 34
9 Lorient 23 8 8 7 32 - 36 -4 32
10 Toulouse 23 8 7 8 33 - 27 +6 31
11 Brest 23 8 6 9 31 - 34 -3 30
12 Angers SCO 23 8 5 10 22 - 28 -6 29
13 Le Havre 23 6 8 9 20 - 29 -9 26
14 Nice 23 6 6 11 30 - 43 -13 24
15 Paris 23 5 8 10 27 - 40 -13 23
16 Auxerre 23 4 5 14 17 - 33 -16 17
17 Nantes 23 4 5 14 22 - 40 -18 17
18 Metz 23 3 4 16 22 - 52 -30 13

Marseille vs Lyon – FAQ

? Where to watch?

You can find the match officially on the Arena Sport channel.

? How much is the average xG for Marseille this season?

The average xG for Marseille in the Ligue 1 this season is 1.65.

? How much is the average xG for Lyon this season?

The average xG for Lyon in the Ligue 1 this season is 1.39.